Recent Commentary and Analysis

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The Trend Monitoring and Setup Phases for SPY

Stocks were slammed on Black Friday with small-caps leading the way lower and stay-at-home stocks bouncing. The declines were big, but they should be put into perspective. First, Black Friday is pretty much a holiday and trading volume was well below average on the Nasdaq and NYSE. It does not take much to move

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Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)

The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium)

The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium)

The October run continued into November with small-caps breaking out and participation expanding. Some of the old leaders, however, are still leading with new highs in QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs. The setups and breakouts from early-mid October are bearing fruit and ETFs with big runs the last four to five weeks are in the trend-monitoring phase.

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