Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Turns Bearish as Market becomes Oversold, Commodity ETFs Hold Up, Downtrend Signals Expand (Premium)

There were lots of downtrend signals this past week and over the past month. Selling pressure expanded and broadening participation on the downside was enough to push the Composite Breadth Model back into bear market mode. Note that I will update the Market Regime page on Friday morning. For now, the pickings are slim among the equity-related ETFs

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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Transition Phase, Banks and Energy Lead, EVs and Copper Hold Breakouts, URA Firms at Key Retracement (Premium)

The transition process is difficult and the markets are undergoing a transition from a covid-driven economy to a normal economy. A covid economy implies Fed easing, fiscal stimulus and falling Treasury yields. A normal economy means no more balance sheet expansion, no more fiscal stimulus and a normalization of Treasury yields.

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Separating the Consistent from the Inconsistent (Premium)

In an ideal world, trends would be consistent and persist for months. An ideal uptrend would march higher by consistently recording higher highs and higher lows. Once reversed, a downtrend would take over and work its way lower with lower lows and lower highs. There are plenty of chart examples for these consistence and persistent trends.

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Weekend Video – Defensive ETFs Lead, Banks and Energy Extend on Breakout, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out, Tech ETFs Break Prior Lows (Premium)

The stock market is as mixed as it ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighed SPY and QQQ.

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