Recent Commentary and Analysis
Putting Declines into Perspective with the ARK ETFs – CARZ Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern (Premium)
Today’s commentary will focus on three ARK ETFs. Overall, there are eight ARK ETFs that capture cutting-edge technology or innovation in several areas. Six of the eight have been trading for more than three years. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) started trading in February 2019 and the ARK Space Exploration ETF
This post shows three chart layouts for consideration and there is a form at the end of this article where you can vote on your favorite. The idea is to settle on one that satisfies most of us. With last week’s Chart Strategy article, I switched to a chart layout with three charts covering three
Dozens of high flying stocks and ETFs are down double digits from their February highs, but chartists should put these declines into perspective when analyzing
Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)
Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal
The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)
The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.
Growth ETFs, Heikin-Ashi and Asian ETFs Setting Up – IHI, FXI, ASHR, KWEB, CQQQ, EWY, EWJ, EWZ (Premium)
This commentary was originally posted on Wednesday, March 17th, in PDF format. Today I am replacing the PDF with chart images on a web page. Some of the text has been adjusted, but the commentary/charts are largely the same as on Wednesday. These charts cover the massive moves in tech-growth ETFs over the past year, the interest rate debate, Chinese ETFs firming in reversal zones and the Brazil ETFs surging off the 200-day.
I wrote about the Biotech ETF (IBB) on February 28th as it pulled back from a new high. The pullback was viewed as a correction within the bigger uptrend, but the correction extended further than expected. At the time, I drew a falling wedge on the chart and marked resistance with the red line at 163.
Weekend Video – QQQ Pullback, Flag Breakouts Under Threat, Secular Downtrend in Oil, Healthcare ETFs Strengthen (Premium)
QQQ and the tech-related ETFs triggered flag breakouts last week and these breakouts were challenged with a pullback this week. Some breakouts failed (IGV) and some are at their moment of truth (IPAY). Today’s video focuses on trailing stops and breakout zones for several of these.
Timing Models – Triple Shock Thursday, the Secular Downtrend in Oil, Tech Sector Continues to Lag (Premium)
We finally got a bit of a shake up this week as oil fell sharply on Thursday. We also saw big declines in the Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF. It was basically triple shock Thursday with small-caps, large-techs and oil getting hit hard. Tech and growth related ETFs were also hit hard as money moved out of the high-beta end of the market.
There are lots of flag breakouts here in March. Some triggered in early March, some last week, some this week and some are still working, which means price is still near the breakout zone. There were short flag/pennants that lasted a week or so (KRE), shallow flags (IJR), falling flags that lasted three weeks (SPY) and sharper falling flags that lasted four weeks (QQQ, IBB).
As its name suggests, multiple timeframe analysis looks at two or more timeframes to find a setup. Typically, the longer timeframe is used to define the long-term trend and set the trading bias. The shorter timeframe is then used to find setups in harmony
Weekend Video and Chartbook – Flags and Zigzags, Big Week for XLP and XLU, Bullish Setups in 5 International ETFs (Premium)
Stocks perked up this week and we saw flag breakouts in several ETFs. Small-caps led the charge with IWM hitting a new high. QQQ even rebounded with a breakout, but is still lagging year-to-date. Strategically, the Composite Breadth Model remains in bull market mode. Tactically, the breakouts are holding and we will show how to monitor SPY and QQQ going forward. It was also a big week for Utilities and Consumer Staples,
Timing Models – Going for Short-term Breakouts, Split Market with Enough Strength, Composite Breadth Model (Premium)
SPY and IWM recorded new highs this week and continue to lead the broader market. Even though QQQ and XLK are underperforming this year, the old school sectors held strong and propped up SPY. After short pullbacks into early March, stocks caught a bid this week and we are seeing flag breakouts in
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Energy, Banks and Industrials Lead, Tech ETFs Try to Find Footing after Normal Retracements (Premium)
There are a lot of pullbacks to deal with today. Some pullbacks are shallow, some are deep and some are in between. Often, the bigger the advance, the deeper the pullback or retracement. Despite some big percentage declines, most of the pullbacks are normal in retracement terms (33 to