Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Market Timing Models – Bull Market Continues to Broaden with More Sectors and Stocks Leading
The major index ETFs extended their breakouts as the bullish forces, which were highlighted last week, dominate heading into year end. Three of three technical forces remain bullish. Two of the three “other” forces turned from rumor to news this week.
Even though I mentioned these fundamental forces last week, the technical forces are what really drive my market stance.
Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Some Rotation Surfaces as Leaders Pull Back and Laggards Bounce
After a big advance in October and November, many ETFs finally succumbed and pulled back. Some of the leading ETFs weakened the last two weeks, while some of the lagging ETFs picked up the slack. The tech-related ETFs led the pullback the last eight days (FINX, IPAY, HACK, SKYY, IGV and FDN).
Understanding the Indicators and Signals in the Index Breadth Model – Diving Beneath the Surface
This video and article explain the breadth indicators used in the Index Breadth Model and the key levels used to generate signals. Stock market breadth plays an important role in broad market analysis because it reflects what is happening under the surface. Price action, in contrast, shows us what is happening on the surface.
Weekend Video and ChartBook
This week’s video will cover the 60 core ETFs, the short-term trend for SPY and some events that could shake the market in the coming weeks. There were more new highs, a materials-related ETF broke out, gold failed and bonds backed off resistance.
Market Timing Models – Three Bullish Factors Align as we Head into an Eventful Year-End
Stocks took a hit early this week, but quickly rebounded as bigger bullish forces came into play. Today we will review these bullish forces by starting with the long-term picture for the S&P 500. I will then analyze the short-term uptrend, which survived its first test this week.
This Healthcare Stock Looks Poised to Play Catch Up with a Big Breakout
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Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Stocks Show Vulnerability as Money Moves into Alternatives
The market finally showed a vulnerable side this week with a sharp pullback on Monday and Tuesday. A corrective period at this stage would be perfectly normal because stocks were up sharply in October and November. We also saw several flag breakouts fail. These failures are not enough to affect the long-term trends
Three Leading Stocks within the Payments Space – And Three Poised to Hit New Highs
The Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY) came to life in November with Square leading the chart. SQ, however, is not the chart leader. This post will identify three chart leaders and highlight three that look poised for new highs by yearend.
‘Tis the Season for Mobile Payments
Black Friday weekend is here and the holiday shopping season is just getting started. While I have no clue which retailers will be the big winners or losers this season, the mobile payments industry is likely to be a big winner.
Weekend Video and ChartBook
This post features the weekend video that walks you through the the 60 ETFs in the core chart list. I also example on the daily S&P 500 chart and the indicators used to define the short-term uptrend.
Market Timing Models – Smalls, Mids and Equals Come to Life as Bull Market Broadens
Uptrends and new highs are bullish. Sorry, but there is no other interpretation. We can debate the degree of bullishness, we can debate overbought conditions and we can debate non-confirming indicators.
Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – SPY, QQQ and Tech ETFs Lead Extension – Flag Breakouts Trigger
The bull market continues to broaden with 23 of 53 equity-related ETFs hitting new highs (56%) this week. Thus, more than half of the equity ETFs hit new highs and this shows broad strength in the stock market. Note that there are 60 ETFs in the “core” list and just 7 are non-equity
Big Banks Hold Big Breakouts and this Laggard May Play Catchup
Several finance-related ETFs and stocks broke out with big moves from early October to early November. Many of these then stalled over the last two weeks and this rest could be the pause that refreshes. Today we will look at performance for the finance-related ETFs and the bull flags taking shape in three banking stocks
There is (almost) Always Cause for Concern
The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF recorded new all time highs this past week, while the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR hit a new 52-week high in November. Sounds bullish, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF are still well below their 2018 highs, even though they are very close to 52-week highs. Which index ETFs tell the real story here?
Video, ChartBook Update and ChartNotes
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Today I am singling out four ETFs to watch closely because they look poised to move.
Weekend Setups and Stocks to Watch – a Big Bank, a High-Tech Industrial, a Miner and More
Today we have a mixed of old and new. Some setups from prior weeks are still in play and near their breakout zones. Four of these are in the Healthcare sector, which is the hottest sector in the market right now.
Market Timing Model – Small-caps Soften as Large-caps Hold Strong
The sky is falling as the S&P 500 fell a whopping .5% the last four days. Small-caps and mid-caps were hammered as the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR fell 1% so far this week and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR declined 1.3%. I am sure that there are probably some good reasons for these miniscule moves. Heck, there are always reasons.
Trend, Pattern, Group and Rank for Core ETFs – Breakouts, Mean-reversion Bounces and lots of Flags
There is broad strength in the equity-related ETFs with leadership coming from large-caps (SPY, QQQ), tech-related ETFs (IGV, SKYY) and even some more defensive names (XLP, USMV). Other defensive names extended their oversold bounces this week with XLU and XLRE moving higher. Stock alternatives
Sample Weekend Video and Chart Notes
The left button links to a sample ChartBook with more than 60 annotated charts. This ChartBook is updated very week. The right button links to
The Offense has Taken the Field:
Here are Three Signs
The character of the stock market changed over the last six to seven weeks as the market took on a more offensive tone. Stocks were already in bull mode, but we are now seeing stocks outperforming bonds. In addition, momentum and offensive sectors are leading.
Video, ChartBook Update and ChartNotes
This post features chart notes on recent developments in our core ETF list, an update to the ETF ChartBook and a video covering all 60 core ETFs. Today’s video also shows what to watch for the short-term uptrend and covers oil.