Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
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SystemTrader – Changes to Signal Page Updates
Regretfully, I must discontinue the mean-reversion strategies. Performance does not justify the effort. The last update for these signal tables will be on Thursday, June 27th.
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ChartTrader – Large Lead – Small and Mid Caps Lag – Symbols: URA, CPER, FXI, AMGN, CPRT, LIN, AMGN (Premium)
There is no change in the overall market condition. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead the market. SPY, QQQ, MAGS, the Technology SPDR and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) hit fresh
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ChartTrader – Yields Fall – Housing Firms – 2 Data Center Stocks – Symbols: $TNX, ITB, LEN, TOL, KBH, PHM, SMCI, DELL (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for large-caps and large-cap techs. SPY represents large-caps and QQQ represents large-cap tech stocks. Even though there are 1000s of “other” stocks out there, these stocks represent the 800 pound
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Finding Emerging Leaders within Key Groups
The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity
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ChartTrader – QQQ/MAGS Lead – RSP Lags – TLT Battles Breakout – Symbols: IBIT, COIN, BLOK, TTD, AMD, EW (Premium)
The Fed and CPI are in the past and large-cap techs continue to lead the market highs. SPY, QQQ, MAGS, the Technology SPDR, the Communication Services SPDR and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) hit 52-week highs to lead the
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ChartTrader – Bull Market – Short-term Mixed – MDY Stalls – Symbols: XLV, MRK, TMO, CIBR, CHKP, CYBR, PANW (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the long-term, but the short-term evidence is a bit mixed. SPX 4wk HiLo% plunged below -30% on May 29th, but NDX 4wk HiLo% did not confirm this signal. Thus, the combo remains net bullish
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Alibaba Returns to the Scene of the Crime
Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) gaining some 40% and breaking its 200-day SMA. FXI then fell back over the last few weeks. This surge and pullback created a potential opportunity because some stocks
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ChartTrader – Large-cap Techs Lead, Chinese Names Correct, Symbols: RSP, IWM, BOTZ, MEDP, PLTR, FXI, BABA, JD (Premium)
SPY and QQQ surged to new highs on Wednesday and continue to lead the market. Note that SPY and QQQ were the only major index ETFs to hit new highs this week. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) tagged a new high in May, but RSP, MDY and IWM
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ChartTrader – Breadth Turns Mixed – Bearish Engulfings – Symbols: TLT, IJR, SOXX, IBIT, BLOK, XBI, $WTIC, BRK.B, BKNG (Premium)
The weight of the evidence is bullish for the long-term, but the short-term evidence is turning quite mixed. SPX 4wk High-Low Percent plunged below -30% last week and fewer than 50% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are above their 50-day SMA. Software stocks
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Visualizing the Holdings for a Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy
As the name suggests, Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies focus on stocks that are in absolute and relative uptrends. This is a two-step process. First, filter out stocks that are in long-term downtrends and only focus on stocks in uptrend. Second, rank
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ChartTrader – Short-term Breadth Indicators Deteriorate – Symbols: TLT, $TNX, FINX, CIBR, IGV, XLK, MAGS, SOXX (Premium)
The long-term indicators are still bullish, but I am seeing short-term deterioration under the surface. This is especially pronounced outside of large-cap tech (XLK, QQQ, MAGS, SOXX). SPY and QQQ are up over the last two months
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ChartTrader – Weighing the Evidence – Two Sector Stand Out – Symbols: XLK, XLU, TTD, IBIT, BLOK, BLCN, COIN, MARA (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. SPY and QQQ hit new highs and continue to lead the market. The S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) did not exceed their spring highs and continue to lag. Large-caps and large-cap techs are
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Differentiating between Short-term Distractions and Setups with True Potential
Traders can improve their odds by ignoring distraction signals and focusing on setups with real potential. In general, short timeframes are better suited for mean-reversion, while long timeframes
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ChartTrader – AI Trade Revs Up – Discretionary Lags – Housing Fades – Symbols: TLT, $TNX, RSPD, ITB, NOC, VRSN (Premium)
Nvidia (NVDA) released blowout results yet again and surged some 6.5% higher in after hours trading. This move is stoking the large-cap tech and AI trade. AMD (chips), HPE (data center), DELL (data center) and TSM (chip manufacturing) are all
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ChartTrader – Bull Confirmed – XLK Still Leading – Symbols: IGV, CIBR, SOXX, SKYY, FINX, BBH, IBB, XBI, ADP (Premium)
Stocks remain strong with strength broadening. Even so, the old leaders are still the current leaders. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Technology SPDR hit new highs over the last few days. Large-caps and large-cap tech continue to
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ChartTrader – Bitcoin-Related Asset Sets Up with Classic Continuation Signal – Part 2 (Premium)
We are seeing a bullish setup in an ETF related to Bitcoin. As with IBIT, the long-term trend is up and a corrected unfold over the last few months. The pattern and retracement amount make this a classic correction. More importantly,
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Bitcoin Sets Up with Classic Continuation Signal – Part 1
There is a certain ebb and flow in uptrends. Often we see some sort of stair step higher with big advances and smaller corrections along the way. In Dow Theory terms, the primary trend is up and declines within a primary uptrend are
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ChartTrader – SPY/QQQ Lead – Symbols: TLT, $TNX, $WTIC, IBIT, SOXX, IGV, SKYY, CIBR, FINX, DKNG, HUBS, MEDP, NBIX, SQ (Premium)
Stocks reacted positively to the CPI report and surged as Treasury yields fell, and TLT continued its May bounce. SPY and QQQ hit new highs on Wednesday. Also note that QQQ is leading the way since the mid April lows with a 9.22% advance
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ChartTrader – Make or Break is Here – XLK and late August – Symbols: MAGS, NVDA, CIBR, IGV, SKYY, AMD, SMCI, LLY, MRK, TMO (Premium)
SPY and QQQ remain at make or break levels and this week is key. Another push higher would likely show a short-term expansion in upside participation and add some legs to the current bounce. Failure to push higher at this stage could mark a short or intermediate top. There are two inflation-related
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Six Leaders, but One Is Getting Real Frothy
After sharp declines into mid April, stocks rebounded over the last three weeks and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) came within 1% of its March high. This March high acts
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ChartTrader – SPY and QQQ Hit their Make or Break Levels – Symbols: KBE, VRTX, CLFT, UNP, ORCL, VRNS (Premium)
There is no change in the broader market situation. Short-term, SPY and QQQ are at their make or break levels for this oversold bounce. Why? Because the short-term breadth indicators have yet to show enough upside participation
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ChartTrader – SPY and QQQ Hit Moment of Truth – Symbols: ITB, LEN, DHI, CIBR, CRWD, SKYY, IGV (Premium)
SPY and QQQ are at their moment of truth for the current bounce. Stocks surged the last three days with SPY gaining 3.24% and QQQ advancing 4.44%. The current bounce started after oversold conditions in mid April. Over the last 11 days
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Is this a Dead-Cat Bounce or a Bounce with Legs?
Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March 28th to April 19th and then rebounded with a 3.26% gain the last two weeks. Does this bounce have legs? Chartists can separate
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ChartTrader – Correction within Uptrend for SPY/QQQ, Symbols: TLT, XLV, XBI, KBWB, IGV, CIBR, SKYY, SOXX (Premium)
The Fed has come and gone, but earnings season remains in full swing and SPY is in corrective mode. This is not an ideal time for stock setups and signals. Volatility is above average and I prefer to avoid setups in stocks with upcoming earnings reports. As such, today’s report focuses on ETFs