Recent Commentary and Analysis
Market and ETF Report – SPY Remains Bearish, Healthcare ETFs Outperforming, Energy ETFs Turn Mixed (Premium)
We start the New Year with a negative Composite Breadth Model and bear market environment. 2022 was the year of the whipsaw and largely a year to forget. Nobody knows that 2023 will bring, but the bear market environment indicate that risk remains above average for
Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday and the Market Regime is back to bearish. 2022 was year of the whipsaw for the CBM, but whipsaw periods are normal for trend following models and part of the overall process. AAA spreads
Market and ETF Report – 10yr Yield Breaks Out, Gold Holds Strong, Energy ETFs Get Oversold Bounce (Premium)
Today’s report will start with a stock market overview with analysis of the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and three key industry group ETFs (SOXX, XRT, ITB). Housing is holding up, but the other five broke down and the weight
Market and ETF Report – Big 3 Break Down, CBM Turns Negative, Correlations Rise with Break Down (Premium)
Today’s update starts with the big three (SPY, QQQ, IWM) because they broke down over the last few days and their breakdowns signal a continuation of the long-term downtrends. Moreover, the Composite Breadth Model turned
It’s Like Déjà Vu, All over Again for SPY (Free)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged from mid October to early December, but this advance was considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. In fact, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) reversed
Market and ETF Report – ETFs to Watch for Clues on the Broader Market, Intermarket Relations at Work Now (Premium)
The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group
Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium)
Despite some volatility around the CPI report, there is no real change in the market situation. The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The intermarket relationships since
The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 11) – Performance Update, A Tough 2022, New Positions in December
Today’s report will update the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy that trades the All Weather ETFs. 2022 has been a rough year and there are still two weeks left. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on November 30th and this means stock-based ETFs became eligible for the strategy.
Market and ETF Report – Intermarket Relations Support Stocks, Key Groups to Watch, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The weight of the short-term evidence remains bullish for stocks. Even though SPX %Above 20-day SMA plunged below 60% to trigger bearish, SPY has yet to break support and the key intermarket relationships
Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward
Market and ETF Report – XLI Overbought, KRE Breaks Down, Watching Semis, Energy gets Oversold (Premium)
2022 is the year of big swings with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) capturing this phenomenon. Both ETFs surged some 20% in 34 days
Broad Market Assessment – Breadth, SPY, IWM, QQQ, Bonds, Yields, Dollar and Gold (Premium)
This is a broad market update because we have the Composite Breadth Model saying one thing and the price charts saying something else. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive a week ago
S&P 500 Crosses above 200-day SMA: Not So Fast there Cowboy (Free)
The S&P 500 crossed its 200-day SMA for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this “signal” is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however
Market and ETF Report – Broad Advance Lifts CBM, Tech and Housing Break Out of Pennant, Metals Surge (Premium)
Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Some 95% of S&P 500 stocks were up, 96% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced and 93% of S&P 1500 stocks gained ground. Tech and high-beta ETFs, which were still the most beaten down, led the way with the biggest gains
Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)
The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months.