Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Current Market Regime, Past Signals and Composite Breadth Model Charts (Premium)

This page shows the current and past signals for the Composite Breadth Model, which is used to identify bull and bear markets. The broad market environment is the single most important factor at work because the vast majority of stocks rise in bull markets and fall in bear markets. We want to own stocks when the wind is at our back and reduce risk when there is a headwind. Get the broad market environment correct and your chances of success increase dramatically.

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Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium)

There are plenty of strong pockets in the stock market with several cyclically oriented ETFs hitting new highs and large-cap techs coming back to life. This month we are seeing new highs in ETFs related to industrials, materials, housing, semiconductors, transports and steel. We are also seeing some big moves in ETFs dominated by large-cap tech. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a new high and I consider Amazon, its

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Weekend Video – SPY Leads, QQQ Surges, Housing and Industrials Hit New High, HERO and COPX Break Out (Premium)

The S&P 500 hit a new all time high this week and large-cap techs perked up with QQQ surging. Small-caps are lagging, but IWM is not really bearish. The Composite Breadth Model remains firmly bullish with the short-term indicators for the S&P 500 outpacing those in the S&P 1500. Yield spreads narrowed further this week, while the Fed balance sheet contracted a little.

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Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium)

The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR

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A Relative Strength Clue for QQQ (Free)

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) represents the largest stocks in the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) covers the next 100 (101 to 200). Stocks at the top of the latter group are knocking on the door and

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium)

The market continues to be mixed and bullish. Techs and high-flying ETFs led the correction from the February highs to the March lows, but we are now seeing signs of short-term leadership in large-cap techs, namely QQQ and XLK. These two held well above their early March lows and broke out of flag patterns. Other tech-related ETFs and high-flyers are

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Chart Poll: Line-Dot versus Bar Charts (Premium)

This post shows three chart layouts for consideration and there is a form at the end of this article where you can vote on your favorite. The idea is to settle on one that satisfies most of us. With last week’s Chart Strategy article, I switched to a chart layout with three charts covering three

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Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)

Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal

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Timing Models – IWM Joins the Correction Fray, QQQ Firms, Two Bullish Seasonal Patterns

The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.

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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)

The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.

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