Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Candles to Ignore and Bollinger Band Contractions to Watch

The cup remains half full for the S&P 500 SPDR, but half empty for the S&P 500 EW ETF. This could change as RSI firms in a potential reversal zone with a Bollinger Band contraction. Bearish candlesticks are not slowing down QQQ and even IWM could be ripe for a breakout.

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ETF Charts and Setups – Timeframes and Market Caps Collide as Short-term Support Levels Emerge

The mixed market is reflected on the ETF charts with tech-related ETFs hitting new highs and underperforming ETFs testing support levels. Will the leaders pull the laggards up or will the laggards drag the leaders down? Or, do we just need to analyze each chart on its own merits? Probably the latter. Several ETFs are at a moment of truth as their medium-term breakdowns collide with short-term support and reversal zones.

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Weekend Videos – Breadth Model Review, ChartBook and Seasonality

The weekend video starts by reviewing year-to-date performance for the major index ETFs, some key groups, the sector SPDRs and the equal-weight sectors. It is mixed, at best. We then turn to the breadth models. The Nasdaq 100 is the only one of the four breadth models that is bullish. Two of the three medium-term indicators are bullish as SPY consolidates above the 200-day and support. I will then update the Fed balance sheet, the yield spreads, the ETF ranking tables and the ChartBook.

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Timing Models – A Three Legged Bull

The mighty Nasdaq 100 and related technology groups continue to lead the market. In fact, one could even suggest that they are holding up the broader market, with some help from the Communication Services and Healthcare sectors. Together, these groups account for a big chunk of the S&P 500. Despite a big pocket of strength

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ETF Ranking and Grouping – Lots of Consolidations Appear and Bond ETFs Remain Strong

There is a lot of stalling going on out there. A stall can be the pause that refreshes or it can signal a stalemate that leads to a trend reversal. Several ETFs broke their mid June lows, but the tech and healthcare related ETFs are holding up and have yet to break their mid June lows. Some tech-related ETFs are even trading well above these lows. Outside of tech

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StochClose Strategy (Part 5) – Adding a Profit Target and Testing Sensitivity

This is the fifth and final part in a series on using StochClose in trading strategies. Today we will add a profit target to the trend-following signals. How does a Profit Target and the Profit Target amount affect performance? First, there will be an all-signals tests using the Master 200 ETF list and the All Weather 50 ETF list. Then, there will be portfolio tests using signals

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Measuring the Balance of Power
in the Equal-weight Sectors

The 200-day SMA is a long-term trend indicator that chartists can use across the equal-weight sectors to measure the balance of power in the broader market. The more sectors trading above their 200-day SMAs, the more bullish the market. The more sectors trading below their 200-day SMAs, the more bearish the market.

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Weekend Video – Weighing the Evidence Breadth Models, EW Sectors and Medium-term Indicators

Today’s video starts with the four long-term breadth models, of which three are in bear mode. We then turn to the three dynamics at work in the stock market: the broad market environment, the medium-term trend and the short-term condition. I will review the weight of the evidence with the equal-weight sectors and intermediate-term indicators. And finally, we will finish with the Fed, yield spreads, the ETF rankings and the ChartBook.

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A Failure Swing for QQQ, a dud
for SPY and a Wedge for RSP

Some ominous chart patterns are taking shape in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 500 SPDR and S&P 500 EW ETF. QQQ remains in a clear uptrend with a new high this week. SPY did not exceed its early June high this week and is lagging QQQ. RSP is lagging SPY because it is back below its 200-day SMA with a bearish wedge taking shape.

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Weekend Video – Breadth Models, Supports, Wedges, Bullion, Bonds and Biotechs

The weekend video starts with long-term and short-term breadth models for four major indexes: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Only one of the four long-term breadth models is bullish – and no prizes for guessing which one. This week’s bounce established uniform support levels in dozens of ETFs to watch next week. There are ominous wedges in

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Timing Models – Nasdaq 100 Breadth Model Carries the Day as Intermediate Uptrends Dominate

Today we will dive into long-term and short-term breadth models using the same indicators for four different indexes. These models cover the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Looking at a market of 1500 stocks, the evidence is mixed, at best. Three of the four long-term models are net bearish and all four short-term models are net bullish.

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ETF Ranking and Grouping – Intermediate Uptrend Dominates the Charts – Focus on GLD and TLT

The intermediate trend is the dominant force at work for most stock-related ETFs and this trend is up. This is basically the uptrend from late March to mid June. The bears fired a shot across the bow last week with a sharp decline, but the bulls answered with a reversal day on Monday and pop on Tuesday. Most importantly, price action on Monday-Tuesday affirmed support for several ETFs and established a reaction low for others.

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StochClose Strategy (Part 4) – Trend Signals, Bull Market Filters and Maximum Number of Positions

This is part 4 of a series on using StochClose in trading strategies. Today we will take StochClose trend signals to the portfolio level. After setting the hard to beat benchmarks, I will test the two groups in the All Weather List separately: the 40 stock-related ETFs and 10 alternative ETFs. These two groups will be tested for the entire periods and then in their preferred market environment. The alternative ETFs performed as expected, better in bear markets, but the stock-related ETFs produced a big surprise.

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SPY Update and the
Preferred Moving Average Combo

This is just a short update for SPY and a decision on the preferred moving average combo for the S&P 500. After a plunge on Thursday, stocks firmed on Friday and forged an intraday reversal on Monday. This firmness is occurring near short-term support for many ETFs and the major index ETFs held their intermediate uptrends, which have been in place since late March. Small-caps, housing, biotech, gold miners and corporate bonds led the advance.

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Weekend Video – Breadth Model Indicators, the SPY/TLT Reversals and the ChartBook

Today’s weekend video starts with the indicators that make up the breadth model and their individual signals. We then add some basic market timing and show the model signals over the last 20 years. I will also provide a preview of a short-term breadth model. Attention then turns to potential reversals in SPY and TLT, the rising wedges in RSP and IWM, the StochClose rankings and the ChartBook

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