Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart
ETF Trend Composite Signals and StochClose Ranking Table (Premium)
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Trend Composite Signal Table for S&P 500 Stocks (Free)
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Correlations Rise as Bear Extends its Grip (Free)
Despite the bear market environment, a handful of stock-based ETFs were showing leadership with bullish Trend Composite signals. Representatives from dirty energy (XLE), clean energy (TAN) and utilities (XLU) were covered over
Composite Breadth Model Signals, Comparing to Buy-Hold and 5/200 Cross and Adding Beta for Performance (Premium)
This report will update the Composite Breadth Model signals and compare signals to the 5/200 cross for the S&P 500. The CBM outperforms this cross and does so with few positions (whipsaws). The CBM also performs in
Market and ETF Report – Broad Market Weighs, Uranium Pulls Back, Copper Firms, Palladium Grinds Higher and Silver Shines (Premium)
The Fed has come and gone, and the ugliness in the markets remains. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as SPY lost 1.79%. Bonds bounced with a sequence of sell-the-rumor (rate hike) and buy-the-news (actual hike). Sell short on the prospect of rate hikes and cover when the big
Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks
Current Market Regime, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads and Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the financial markets.
Market and ETF Report – Downtrends Dominate, Tech Leads Lower, Defensives not Immune, Clean Energy Holds Up (Premium)
Volatility remains above average in the markets and now we have a Fed meeting to contend with. There is only one thing to do when the Fed meets: turn off your news feed and wait a few days for the dust to settle. Knee jerk reactions are
Coming Up Aces in Clean Energy (Free)
The broad market environment remains bearish, but one group stood out in early August and continues to stand out. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) was featured on August 1st as the Trend Composite turned bullish and clean energy
Market and ETF Report – Stocks and Industrial Commodities Weaken, Uranium and Grains Hold Up (Premium)
This is one tough market, and I am not just talking about stocks. Non-stock alternatives usually emerge during bear markets, but we are seeing weakness in oil, copper, gold and “safe-haven” Treasury
Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Surges within Bigger Downtrends, Energy ETFs Hold Up, Clean Energy and Biotech Show Leadership (Premium)
Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only
Energy-based ETFs Hold Up Despite Weakness in Stocks and Oil (Free)
It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces with and without the Force, Energy ETF Pullback, Palladium ETF Hits Moment of Truth (Premium)
After becoming very oversold on Tuesday, stocks bounced on Wednesday with the major index ETFs gaining around 2%. Today’s report will put these bounces into context. We will show the difference between bullish setups in harmony with the bigger force and
Market/ETF Video – CBM Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, SPY become Oversold within Downtrend, Very Selective with ETFs (Premium)
Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals