Recent Commentary and Analysis
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart
Weekend Video – Techs Follow Bonds Higher, Old Economy ETFs Sag, Gold and Silver Consolidate (Premium)
Tech stocks led the market again this week and the tech-related ETFs are the top performers over the last four to five weeks. The old economy ETFs, such as industrials, housing,
The stock market does not get any more mixed than it did on Thursday. The S&P 500 SPDR closed with a .50% gain, the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR closed with a 1.6% loss and the Nasdaq 100 ETF advanced 1%. This was not a value-growth split, but rather a large-small split. Small-cap growth (IJT) and small-cap value (IJS) were both down over 1%.
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the stock market. Stocks perform best when credit markets are not stressed
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Failing Pennants and Flags, REITs Get Extended, XLU and XLV Set Up (Premium)
There are still plenty of short-term setups out there. These include one to three week pennants, flags and falling wedges. There were even some short-term breakout attempts in late May and early June. Several of these breakouts are under pressure as prices fell back. A short-term consolidation within an uptrend is typically a bullish continuation pattern, but
The 5G Next Generation ETF (FIVG) is taking the lead within the tech space as it breaks out of a bullish continuation pattern. FIVG is leading because it recorded a new high here in early June. Not very many tech-related ETFs hit new highs here in early June and this makes it relatively easy to separate the leaders from the laggards.
Tech stocks were hit with selling pressure on Thursday and then rebounded along with Treasury bonds on Friday. The narrative seems to be that rising bonds and falling yields are bullish for tech stocks. Regardless of the narrative, several tech related ETFs are holding their breakouts within larger
S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns, Oil Breaks Out, an Outsized Decline in Gold, and the Dollar Tests Prior Lows (Premium)
SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – REITs and Energy Lead, XLK Hits Retracement, COPX Holds Breakout (Premium)
REIT and energy ETFs are leading the market right now as ETFs in these groups surged to new highs. Some old economy ETFs are not far behind with the Finance SPDR, the Metals & Mining SPDR and the Global Auto ETF also hitting new highs.
Some of the old Ford and GM cars can still rev their engines, but the sound of a revving engine could go the way of the dodo. Perhaps, I should say that the price chart for the Global Auto ETF (CARZ) is revving its engine and poised for a breakout.
Weekend Video – A Record Run, BBB Spreads, Bull Market Turns 1, Oversold Bounces in ITB and COPX, Upswings in CARZ and BETZ (Premium)
May was a volatile month for SPY with five swings of two percent or more, but the month ended slightly positive after a 3% upswing the last eight trading days. May is finished and now we head to June, which has a slightly negative seasonal bias. We will look at this seasonal pattern in today’s video and put the current
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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Healthcare and REITs Lead, Small-caps Remain Stuck, Tech-Related ETFs Hold their Short-term Breakouts (Premium)
There is a rotational or rolling correction underway in the stock market. Tech-related ETFs and high flyers peaked in mid February and corrected into May. During this period, the old economy ETFs picked up the slack and moved to new highs (industrials, materials, steel, copper, energy, banking, housing).
The Gold SPDR (GLD) crossed above its 200-day EMA in early May and its 200-day SMA this past week. Both signals are “bullish” and point to a long-term uptrend, but tell us little regarding realistic expectations going forward. To get a better understanding, we need
This article is the second of a two part series where we put gold and silver to the test. The first article showed test results for crosses of the 200-day SMA and EMA. This article tests the Trend Composite signals
Weekend Video – SPY Stalls in Gap Zone, Tech ETFs Break Short-term Resistance, Down Gaps in XLI, XLE, XLB and XRT (Premium)
It was another week full of gaps. Tech-related ETFs rebounded and gapped up on Thursday. The old economy ETFs gapped down on Wednesday and did not partake in the tech rebound. Thus, we have up-gaps and short-term breakouts in tech competing with