Recent Commentary and Analysis
Trend Composite Impulse Signals versus In-State Signals with Momentum (Premium)
Impulse signals offer the chance to catch a trend as soon as it starts, but in-state signals give traders the opportunity to add momentum to their strategy. Today’s article compares a strategy using impulse signals for the Trend Composite against one that uses in-state signals. The latter
Signal Table: ETF Trend Composite & Momentum Rank (Premium)
This table tracks signals and momentum for stock-based ETFs that are part of the ETF Trend Momentum Strategy. This table qualifies ETFs that meet three requirements: CBM is positive, Trend Composite is positive
Signal Table: ETF Trend Composite & StochClose Rank (Premium)
This page is for subscribers to Premium content. Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password
Signal Table: ETF Mean-Reversion Setups & Indicators (Premium)
This page is for subscribers to Premium content. Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password
Market/ETF Video – Tape vs Fed, Precious Metals Lead, Tech Holds Strong, Industrial Metals Go for Breakouts (Premium)
The stock market is mixed, very mixed. The tape is bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative, but large-caps are holding up because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Yield spreads remain elevated and show stress
Current Market Regime, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads and Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the financial markets.
Market and ETF Report – Breadth Remains Weak, Large-caps Holding Up, Consumer Staples SPDR Perks Up (Premium)
Strength in the stock market is narrow, which means a handful of stocks are keeping the market afloat. Put another way, weakness within the stock market is broad-based, which means the majority of stocks are under pressure. We can see this in the breadth indicators and the small-cap ETFs. SPY and QQQ are
Signal Table: S&P 500 Trend Composite Signals (Free)
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Composite Breadth Model versus the Trend Composite (Premium)
I received some questions regarding the discrepancy between the Composite Breadth Model, which is at -3 and the Trend Composite for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), which is at +5. This is because breadth
Will the Generals follow the Troops? (Free)
Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the
Why Use Market Filters?, Indicator Settings Are Double-Edged Swords, the Best Performing Market Filter (Premium)
Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme
Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)
The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to
Market and ETF Report – Big Swings and Rotations within the Market, Big Tech Leads, Defensives Lag with Downswings (Premium)
The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to
Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart
A Risk-off Alternative Turns Up as Stocks Falter (Free)
Sometimes markets trend, sometimes they oscillate and sometimes they simply frustrate. I would venture to guess that trading since 2022 falls into the frustration basket. Trend following and momentum strategies are suffering because big moves