The stock market is extended and strong. While the extended nature of the advance argues for a correction at some point, current strength could extend because stocks can become overbought and remain overbought.

Stocks moved sharply higher for the second straight week with broad participation. RSP, SPY and QQQ recorded 52-week highs, 8 of the 11 sector SPDRs recorded new highs and 8 of the 11 equal-weight sector ETFs hit new highs.

The principle of confirmation stems from classic Dow Theory, which used the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports to confirm price movements. The bull market was in good shape as long as both recorded higher highs by exceeding their prior peaks.

There are lot of new highs already this week and lots of flag breakouts. However, these new highs and fresh breakouts are still overshadowed by an overextended stock market (SPY). Yes, the odds of a corrective period remain high. The flag breakouts and gaps from early February

Stocks are still looking overextended and ripe for a rest. SPY formed three outsized weekly candles, the tallest since the advance began, over the last five weeks. In addition, the weekly gain/loss was well above average for three of the last five weeks.

The Aerospace & Defense ETF broke out to new highs with leadership coming from Lockheed Martin (LMT), United Technologies (UTX) and L3 Harris (LHX). This shows broad strength in the industry group so I looked through the components of the Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR).

The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market by surging to new highs. After a bashing at the end of January, these two came roaring out of the gates and answered with big moves in the first week of February. As the chart below shows, SPY held its early January low during the dip and showed relative strength in late January (less weakness).

My, that was quick. A few days ago, Friday January 31st, to be exact, the S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF were down year-to-date. The S&P 500 had just suffered its worst weekly decline since late July (-2.14%) and the small-cap Russell fell 2.94%. In addition, seven of the twelve sector SPDRs were down year-to-date on January 31st

The stock market took a hit this week as money rotated into safe-have assets, such as bonds. Gold also moved higher and hit a 52-week high on Friday. It looks like a correction has started in the stock market as SPY confirmed its weekly harami and the short-term indicators trigger bearish.

The bears fired their first shot across the bow this week with sharp declines on Friday and Monday. The bulls were not in the mood to allow even a modest pullback and quickly stepped back into the market. Short-term, an oversold bounce after a 2.5% decline (Friday-Monday) is pretty normal stuff and does not change my overall thesis.

The defensive names further improved this week, while the number of ETFs showing real weakness expanded. ETFs related to bonds, precious metals (sans silver), utilities and REITs remain strong. We saw the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF, Aggregate Bond ETF and Gold SPDR extend further on their falling wedge breakouts. The Utilities SPDR is the leading sector here in January with a 6.24% gain.

The pickings are slim today for two reasons. First, we are in the middle of earnings season and I typically avoid stocks that are reporting earnings soon. Thus, today’s setups do not report until the latter part of February or later.

The market turned seriously defensive this week with bond ETFs, precious metals related ETFs, Utilities and REITs leading. We saw wedge breakouts in GLD and GDX around Christmas