Recent Commentary and Analysis
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
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A Dozen Books that Influenced my Analysis Process, Understanding of Markets and Trading Mindset (Free)
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.
Weekend Video – Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Leads with New High, Clean Energy ETFs Form Bullish Setups, Copper ETFs Pull Back (Premium)
The bull market remains in place, but we are seeing some short-term weakness in the breadth indicators. This weakness is reflected in small-caps, which pulled back the last two days. Pullbacks from new highs are normal and this could produce a bullish setup in the coming
Short-term Breadth Underwhelms, TLT Ignores Inflation and Holds October, Dollar Extends Uptrend, Oil is Poised to Become Oversold (Premium)
The Market Regime is bullish, which means we are in a bull market. However, there are signs of underlying weakness over the last few days and this could give way to a pullback. Note that predicting a pullback within a bigger uptrend is challenging because the bigger uptrend is still
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the stock market. Stocks perform best when credit markets are not stressed
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech Still Leading, Small-caps Pull Back, Copper Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout, Lots of Bull Flags Out There (Premium)
After a nice run from early-mid October to early-mid November, trading conditions turned rough with choppy price action the last two weeks. The tech-related ETFs are still leading, but still quite extended short-term. Some old economy ETFs extended further on their medium-term breakouts and
The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week, and last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF and relative strength in
Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)
The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising
The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium)
The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium)
The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest
We have all heard of trend-following and many us employ trend indicators in our strategies. But how do these indicators actually perform over an extended period of time and in varying market conditions? Let’s look at an example.
Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium)
The bull market is clear and present with new highs in large-caps, large-cap techs, mid-caps and small-caps. Micro-caps are the only missing component, but IWC is very close. Participation continues to expand with breakouts in the Industrials
Participation Continues to Broaden, Confusion in the Bond Market, the Noose Narrows for Gold (Premium)
The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened over the last six weeks. SPY and QQQ were already doing their part with clear uptrends and new highs throughout the year. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) broke out of a long triangle in late October
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium)
The October run continued into November with small-caps breaking out and participation expanding. Some of the old leaders, however, are still leading with new highs in QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs. The setups and breakouts from early-mid October are bearing fruit and ETFs with big runs the last four to five weeks are in the trend-monitoring phase.