Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart

Market and ETF Report – Bearish Outcomes more Likely, Trend Composite Strategy Update, Consumer Staples Breakdown (Premium)
Bearish outcomes are more likely in a bear market and this is playing out as even the defensive groups were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday. We are also seeing this play out in certain commodities, such as industrial metals. Industrial metals

ETF Trend Composite Signals and StochClose Ranking Table (Premium)
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Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce, Yield Spreads Surge, Energy and Ag Lead, Safe-Haven Stock Groups Hold Up Best (Premium)
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after strong selling pressure and sharp declines. We are seeing an oversold bounce right now, but this is considered a bear market bounce because the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish and yield spreads show serious stress in the credit markets.

Current Market Regime, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads and Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the financial markets.

Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium)
Stocks became extremely oversold last week after a sharp five day decline that looked like a selling climax. This five day decline was already on top of a sharp decline from April 21st to 27th (-8.5%). All told, there was

Trend Composite Signal Table for S&P 500 Stocks (Free)
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.

A Key Factor in the Trading Puzzle (Free)
The bigger trend is one of the most important factors to consider when trading stocks or ETFs. We can use trend signals as part of a trend-following strategy or to dictate our trading bias. I look for bullish setups and pullback opportunities

Market and ETF Report – Falling Knives, Sinking and not Yet Stinking, Defensive ETFs Holding Up Better (Premium)
Stocks remain under pressure and failed to bounce after becoming quite oversold after a three-day decline on Tuesday. This decline continued with many stocks and ETFs becoming even more

Market/ETF Video – Selling Pressure Continues to Broaden, Short-term Bearish Extremes, Ag and Energy Lead (Premium)
The bear market widened its grip on stocks as more participated in the decline over the last few weeks. New lows expanded dramatically the last two weeks and more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Safe-haven groups were also hit as utilities and consumer staples fell. The safe-haven groups are

Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium)
The ugly just got uglier. The Composite Breadth Model turned bearish on April 11th and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 crossed below the 200-day SMA that same day. At worst

Market and ETF Report – Volatility Remains High, Techs Continue to Lead Low, Some Commodity ETFs Setting Up (Premium)
Market volatility was also high and seemed to get even higher the last two weeks. Moreover, volatility and selling pressure are not just in the stock market. We saw selling pressure in almost all groups over the last five

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Short-term Oversold, Oil and Ag Commodities Hold Up, Industrials Metals Hit (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and we are in a bear market environment for stocks. Oil and agricultural commodities remain relatively strong, but industrial metals were hit pretty hard the last two weeks. Downside participation

Market/ETF Video – Downside Participation Broadens, Industrial Commodities Hit, Oil and Ag Remain Strong (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and participation to the downside expanded significantly over the last six trading days. Even the low volatility leaders were hit hard and there were few places to hide as correlations rose among stocks. Bonds managed to firm, but do not offer an alternative to stocks

Market and ETF Report – Staying with a Narrow Focus, Leaders Firming and Bounces after Sharp Pullbacks (Premium)
The Market Regime is bearish and this means there is a headwind for stock-related ETFs. At the very least, we should be extremely selective and reduce exposure to stocks. Even though we will still have sharp oversold bounces,

Market and ETF Report – Downside Participation Broadens, QQQ and IWM Lead Lower, Three ETFs in Uptrends with Oversold Conditions (Premium)
It is not pretty out there. The Composite Breadth Model is bearish and yield spreads are rising. We are also seeing large-techs (QQQ) and small-caps (IWM) lead the broader market lower. Selling pressure intensified with lopsided down days on Friday and Tuesday. Basically