Recent Commentary and Analysis
The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) formed two bullish continuation patterns within its long-term uptrend and recent breakouts bode well for further gains.
Weekend Video – QQQ Joins SPY with New High, Yield Spreads Narrow, Oil Hits Resistance and ETF Charts (Premium)
Equity-related ETFs continued strong this week with large-cap techs leading the way here in April. SPY also hit a new high, but small-caps are lagging as IWM stalls. Bank and energy related ETFs are also dragging their feet a little. Relative weakness is not a concern because IWM, KRE and XES
This page shows the current and past signals for the Composite Breadth Model, which is used to identify bull and bear markets. The broad market environment is the single most important factor at work because the vast majority of stocks rise in bull markets and fall in bear markets. We want to own stocks when the wind is at our back and reduce risk when there is a headwind. Get the broad market environment correct and your chances of success increase dramatically.
Timing Models – SPY Hits New High as XLY and XLK Lead, IWM Consolidates, Yield Spreads Narrow Even Further (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and seven sector SPDRs joined the new high parade (XLK, XLY, XLC, XLI, XLB, XLRE, XLP). The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are within 2% of 52-week highs. Strength within the S&P 500 is broad and supportive of a bull market. Today’s report will show QQQ close to a new high and IWM struggling, but still bullish. Technology and Consumer Discretionary
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Cyclical ETFs Lead with New Highs, Big Techs Perk Up, High-flyers Remain Subdued (Premium)
There are plenty of strong pockets in the stock market with several cyclically oriented ETFs hitting new highs and large-cap techs coming back to life. This month we are seeing new highs in ETFs related to industrials, materials, housing, semiconductors, transports and steel. We are also seeing some big moves in ETFs dominated by large-cap tech. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a new high and I consider Amazon, its
Weekend Video – SPY Leads, QQQ Surges, Housing and Industrials Hit New High, HERO and COPX Break Out (Premium)
The S&P 500 hit a new all time high this week and large-cap techs perked up with QQQ surging. Small-caps are lagging, but IWM is not really bearish. The Composite Breadth Model remains firmly bullish with the short-term indicators for the S&P 500 outpacing those in the S&P 1500. Yield spreads narrowed further this week, while the Fed balance sheet contracted a little.
Timing Models – SPY Leads, QQQ Perks Up, SPX Leads Composite Breadth Model and Yield Spreads Narrow (Premium)
The S&P 500 SPDR hit a new high to affirm the bull market and three sectors confirmed this new high. The Consumer Staples SPDR, Materials SPDR and Industrials SPDR recorded new highs at some point this week. Even though the other big sectors did not hit new highs this week, they are in uptrends and within three percent of new highs. These include the Technology SPDR
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Mixed Market with Strength in Cyclicals and Non-Cyclicals, Large Cap Techs Perk Up (Premium)
The market continues to be mixed and bullish. Techs and high-flying ETFs led the correction from the February highs to the March lows, but we are now seeing signs of short-term leadership in large-cap techs, namely QQQ and XLK. These two held well above their early March lows and broke out of flag patterns. Other tech-related ETFs and high-flyers are
Putting Declines into Perspective with the ARK ETFs – CARZ Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern (Premium)
Today’s commentary will focus on three ARK ETFs. Overall, there are eight ARK ETFs that capture cutting-edge technology or innovation in several areas. Six of the eight have been trading for more than three years. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) started trading in February 2019 and the ARK Space Exploration ETF
This post shows three chart layouts for consideration and there is a form at the end of this article where you can vote on your favorite. The idea is to settle on one that satisfies most of us. With last week’s Chart Strategy article, I switched to a chart layout with three charts covering three
Dozens of high flying stocks and ETFs are down double digits from their February highs, but chartists should put these declines into perspective when analyzing
Weekend Video – QQQ Holds Breakout, Bullish Seasonal Patterns, Housing, Industrials and Materials ETF Hit New Highs (Premium)
Today’s video starts with the corrections in QQQ and IWM, and the resilience in SPY. Techs started the corrective process and small-caps joined this week, but large-caps in the S&P 500 remain immune. Nevertheless, QQQ has a flag breakout working and shows some short-term relative strength. Stocks could find another wind from two bullish seasonal
The market regime remains bullish, but we are seeing corrective price action over the last few months. The Nasdaq 100 ETF started it all off with a sharp decline from mid February to early March. IWM got involved this week with its biggest fourth decline greater than 9% since March 2020. SPY has largely avoided the correction fray and remains the strongest of the big three.
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Flag Failures, Risk Aversion, Defensive Sectors Shine, Big Advances lead to Big Corrections(Premium)
The market remains defensive overall. There were flag breakouts in a number of tech and growth ETFs last week and these breakouts are failing this week. Once again, the tech and growth ETFs are leading the way lower. Even though these ETFs are down sharply over the last six weeks, the declines still look like corrections within bigger uptrends. The mid March highs provide the first resistance levels to watch going forward.