Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Getting Started with TrendInvestorPro!
This page provides an overview of my philosophy, the analysis tools that I use, the commentary schedule and the offerings on the premium page. Focusing on ETFs, TrendinvestorPro offers an objective and systematic approach to the analysis process. Note that there are three possibilities when we analyze a chart
Market and ETF Report – Stocks Surge, but Bonds Fall, Overbought and Staying Overbought, Trend Composite Settings (Premium)
Stocks surged on reports that inflation was less than expected. Bonds did not. This is interesting because bonds are supposed to be more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. The news, however, is just the reported news we can never be sure of the true reasons for the price moves.
Market/ETF Video – Keys to Short-term Advance, Biotech and Clean Energy Breakouts, Wheat and Agriculture Firm (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a
Current Market Regime, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads and Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)
This page shows the current Market Regime using the Composite Breadth Model and the situation in the credit markets with yield spreads. These indicators are very different, but they go hand in hand when assessing the state of the financial markets.
ETF Trend Composite Signals and StochClose Ranking Table (Premium)
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Market and ETF Report – Resistance-Reversal Zones in Play, More Trend Composite Signals, Stops with Loose Pants (Premium)
We are seeing more bullish Trend Composite signals, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Of the 274 ETFs in the master list, there are 22 ETFs (13%) with positive Trend Composites (uptrends) and 152 (87%) with downtrends. The uptrend signals are
Trend Composite Signal Table for S&P 500 Stocks (Free)
The Trend Composite is a trend indicator that aggregate signals in five indicators. Bollinger Bands (125,1), Keltner Channels (125,2), 5-day Rate-of-Change of 125-day SMA, StochClose (125,5) and CCI-Close (125). Click on any column heading to sort. This table is updated every Friday before the open.
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Breadth Indicators for Thrust and Overbought Conditions, Tech ETFs Break May Highs, JO Intrigues Again (Premium)
Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term
Market/ETF Video – Resistance Reversal Zones are Nigh, Oils Tests Support, TLT Forms Bearish Pattern, Working with ATR Trailing Stops (Premium)
Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market with Slim Pickings, Running into Resistance-Reversal Zone, Palladium Shines (Premium)
Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,
TAN Follows Trend Composite Signal with Breakout (Free)
Led by its top two components, Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) followed a bullish signal from the Trend Composite
Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 10) – Performance Update, Perspective on June Drawdown, First/Last Day of Week Entries
The previous article explained the methodology behind the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy with signal and ranking table examples. This article will update performance by showing the equity curve relative to buy-and-hold, putting the June drawdown
The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 9) – Impulse vs In-State Signals, Understanding Entries, Leaders at the Start of a Bull Market
This is an update to the Trend-Momentum strategy that trades the All Weather ETF List. First introduced in February 2022, this strategy benefits from bull markets by focusing on stock-based ETFs when the Composite Breadth Model turns
Market and ETF Report – Dow Theory Update, Don’t Fight the Tape, Four of Six Alternative Assets in Downtrends (Premium)
Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing
Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness in Stocks, Downtrends in Metals and Agriculture Extend, Oil Tests Spring Lows (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial
Market and ETF Report – SPY Consolidates within Downtrend, Oil in Downswing, Defensive ETFs Holding Up the Best, PALL Breaks (Premium)
Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend