Arthur Hill, CMT

S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns, Oil Breaks Out, an Outsized Decline in Gold, and the Dollar Tests Prior Lows (Premium)

SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record

S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns, Oil Breaks Out, an Outsized Decline in Gold, and the Dollar Tests Prior Lows (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – A Record Run, BBB Spreads, Bull Market Turns 1, Oversold Bounces in ITB and COPX, Upswings in CARZ and BETZ (Premium)

May was a volatile month for SPY with five swings of two percent or more, but the month ended slightly positive after a 3% upswing the last eight trading days. May is finished and now we head to June, which has a slightly negative seasonal bias. We will look at this seasonal pattern in today’s video and put the current

Weekend Video – A Record Run, BBB Spreads, Bull Market Turns 1, Oversold Bounces in ITB and COPX, Upswings in CARZ and BETZ (Premium) Read More »

S&P 500 Makes History – Plus Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium)

This commentary will look at this historic advance in the S&P 500, and them some less historic charts for oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. The 14-month gain in the S&P 500 is the largest in over 70 years. Oil is still challenging resistance as a bullish cup-with-handle forms. Gold remains in the midst

S&P 500 Makes History – Plus Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Healthcare and REITs Lead, Small-caps Remain Stuck, Tech-Related ETFs Hold their Short-term Breakouts (Premium)

There is a rotational or rolling correction underway in the stock market. Tech-related ETFs and high flyers peaked in mid February and corrected into May. During this period, the old economy ETFs picked up the slack and moved to new highs (industrials, materials, steel, copper, energy, banking, housing).

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Healthcare and REITs Lead, Small-caps Remain Stuck, Tech-Related ETFs Hold their Short-term Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY Stalls in Gap Zone, Tech ETFs Break Short-term Resistance, Down Gaps in XLI, XLE, XLB and XRT (Premium)

It was another week full of gaps. Tech-related ETFs rebounded and gapped up on Thursday. The old economy ETFs gapped down on Wednesday and did not partake in the tech rebound. Thus, we have up-gaps and short-term breakouts in tech competing with

Weekend Video – SPY Stalls in Gap Zone, Tech ETFs Break Short-term Resistance, Down Gaps in XLI, XLE, XLB and XRT (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Big 3 with Different Uptrends, EV ETFs Tests Support, Tech ETFs Consolidate near March Low (Premium)

The ETF universe is also split. We are still seeing plenty of strength in the old economy ETFs as several recorded new highs in May. The highest of the high flyers remain weak with ETFs related to clean energy, cannabis, cloud, ARK and biotech forging lower lows here in May (below their March lows). Most eyes are on some tech-related ETFs

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Big 3 with Different Uptrends, EV ETFs Tests Support, Tech ETFs Consolidate near March Low (Premium) Read More »

Peak Parade, Seasonal Patterns, Small-cap Breadth Lags, A 90% Down Day, SPY Fails in Gap Zone, QQQ Continues to Struggle (Premium)

Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling

Peak Parade, Seasonal Patterns, Small-cap Breadth Lags, A 90% Down Day, SPY Fails in Gap Zone, QQQ Continues to Struggle (Premium) Read More »

Identifying and Trading the Falling Wedge (Video) – Successes, Failures and Two Current Setups (Premium)

The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern that chartists can use to trade or invest in the direction of the underlying trend. I realized that some books show falling wedges as bullish reversal patterns, but I am only interested in bullish continuation patterns and I choose to ignore names that are hitting new lows. This video will show

Identifying and Trading the Falling Wedge (Video) – Successes, Failures and Two Current Setups (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Gaps, Dips and Rebounds, Normalized ROC Remains Bullish, Harami Patterns within Triangles in Tech-Related ETFs (Premium)

It was a week full of gaps, dips and rebounds. For example, SPY gapped down on Tuesday and tested its 50-day SMA on Wednesday. An inside day formed as the ETF rebounded on Thursday and another gap formed on Friday as SPY surged into Tuesday’s gap zone. Several tech related ETFs formed harami candlestick patterns near support and gapped up on Friday. These gaps, while short-term

Weekend Video – Gaps, Dips and Rebounds, Normalized ROC Remains Bullish, Harami Patterns within Triangles in Tech-Related ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Oil, Gold, Gold Miners, Silver, Bonds and Dollar and some Macro Viewpoints (Premium)

I covered the stock market environment on Tuesday and Thursday because it seemed timely given price action. This commentary will focus on the macro picture with analysis for oil, gold, gold miners, silver and bonds. Gold looks bullish and we have a new trend signal in the Gold Miners ETF. Copper looks even more

Oil, Gold, Gold Miners, Silver, Bonds and Dollar and some Macro Viewpoints (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Peak Parade, Mind the Gap in $SPX, Leaders are Not Immune (Premium)

There is a lot going on in the market here in May, but the action started in February with the peak parade. The market was hit hard from mid February to early March and this February high marked an important peak for several high-flying and tech-related ETFs (TAN, IGV). Next, the Russell 2000 ETF

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Peak Parade, Mind the Gap in $SPX, Leaders are Not Immune (Premium) Read More »

SPY Correction, QQQ and Tech Weakness, IWM Fails, KRE Holds Breakout, TLT Fails to Bounce, Bearish Setup for Bitcoin (Premium)

Tech and high-growth took another beating on Monday and followed through on last week’s breakdowns. Even though other areas are still holding up, many non-tech stocks and ETFs closed lower after being up during the day. The chart below shows the Home Construction ETF (ITB), Regional Bank ETF (KRE),

SPY Correction, QQQ and Tech Weakness, IWM Fails, KRE Holds Breakout, TLT Fails to Bounce, Bearish Setup for Bitcoin (Premium) Read More »

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