Arthur Hill, CMT

The post-breakout moves in SPY and QQQ look pretty normal, but the 10-week surge in the Russell 2000 ETF looks downright frothy. What else is new. Even so, two S&P 500 medium-term breadth indicators are holding strong and show no signs of deterioration that would suggest a correction. In the ETF Chartbook, we saw lots of consolidation breakouts this week and new highs (closing prices) in seven of the nine sector SPDRs. Bonds took it personal this week as the TLT fell 4%,

The rally is gaining steam (momentum), the leadership circle is broadening (new highs) and the riskiest stocks are leading (small-caps). We are also starting to see stories suggesting that this rally is unstoppable. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. There will be a pullback at some point, but it is much harder to time “overbought” pullbacks than oversold bounces. The big trend and bull market are the dominant forces at work in the

This is an update covering some recent setups on the ETF Ranking, Trends and Setups table. There were no new trend signals over the last two weeks. Only 6 of the 118 ETFs are in downtrends, which are based on StochClose signals. 52 ETFs scored 98 or higher on the 52wk Range score, which means they are at or close to 52-week highs. Even though

Stocks are on the march again with the re-open trade leading the way here in 2021. The year ended with small-caps, retail, banks and energy leading the last two months of the year and this theme picked up again this week. A new year and a new month translates into money ready to go to work and this money found its way into the momentum leaders of the last three months.

The bull market in stocks remains intact as we start 2021. The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF finished the year at new closing highs, while the Russell 2000 ETF finished less than 2% from its December 23rd closing high, which was a 52-week high. For the year, IWM was up 18.34%, QQQ rose 47.57% and SPY gained 16.16% (sans dividends). Note the Silver ETF kept pace with QQQ in 2020.

We have an interesting mix of overbought ETFs and ETFs that are consolidating. ETFs that are overbought are not outright bearish, but they do not have tradable setups. The overbought ETFs are the current leaders because they are the ones with the biggest gains and the ones trading at 52-week highs. ETFs that are consolidating within uptrends have tradable setups, such as bullish flags, pennants

The broad market environment remains bullish, but the picture is turning mixed as fewer stocks follow the major indexes higher. The S&P 500 SPDR, Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF moved to new highs this week and are positive the last 16 trading days, but the S&P 500 Equal-weight ETF did not hit a new high this week is down around 1% the last 16 days. The equal-weight S&P 500 represents performance for the “average” stock in the S&P 500. I am also seeing some underlying weakness in short-term breadth for the S&P 500 and the technology sector.

The bulls remain in the driver’s seat when it comes to stocks. Strength within the stock market is broad with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 recording new highs here in December. There is also broad strength within the stock-related ETFs with dozens of new highs. Tech-related ETFs reasserted themselves as the true leaders with breakouts in late November and new highs throughout December. Keep in mind that these ETFs also recorded new highs

There is a new ETF in town that promises big potential. The Invesco Next Generation Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQJ) is based on an index with the same name. As the Invesco web site explains, 90% of its total assets will come from the underlying index and this index is based on the 101st to 200th largest stocks in the Nasdaq. This makes it a small and mid cap version of the Nasdaq 100. The ETF is

Today’s video starts with the long-term picture for the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. All three are holding their breakouts with IWM extending the furthest and QQQ perking up this past week. We continue to see strong participation in the breadth indicators. Yield spreads remain at normal levels with the junk spreads narrowing even more in December. We will then turn to the new ETF ranking table to show how it can be sorted and viewed. Attention then turns to the ETF ChartBook. The Home Construction ETF (ITB) finally

As with many things in life, we are usually better off focusing on the present when it comes to stock market analysis. Focus on what IS happening, as opposed to what MIGHT happen. This is a game of odds and the odds favor a continuation of current conditions, as opposed to a change. The trend, especially an uptrend, is more likely to continue than reverse. There will be plenty of things concerns along the way, but trend is the single most important factor and the trends are clearly up for the major index ETFs.

The technology-related ETFs are coming back to life with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moving to new highs this week. These two are just playing a little catchup because several other tech-related ETFs already hit new highs in late November (SOXX, IGV, SKYY, HACK, FDN, IPAY, FINX). Energy and banks are attracting a lot of attention still, but these tech-related ETFs are the ones trading at new highs.

There are some signs of excess, but the weight of the evidence remains bullish. Today’s video will shows some excesses and some performance discrepancies since November 9th. Despite these concerns, the breadth models and indicators are bullish. In fact, participation is strong overall and SPY is holding its breakout. Stock alternatives, like TLT and GLD, remain in downtrends, as is the Dollar. We are seeing medium-term breakouts

The major index ETFs notched fresh new highs this week with the Russell 2000 ETF leading the way. Despite new highs, the market advance is quite uneven. As of 10AM Friday morning, IWM was up around 1.5% for the week, while SPY was down 1.2% and QQQ was down around 1.6%. It is not often that we see such seesaw action. As we will see in detail below, there is also a significant performance discrepancy since the open on November 9th (vaccine day).

Most stock-related ETFs are in uptrends of some sort and many are quite extended after big runs since late October (26 days). ETFs hitting new highs this month are the true leaders (SPY, QQQ, IWM, XME, XRT, SKYY). There is also a group with market-leading gains the last 27 days (since late October), but they are not “true” leaders. The energy-related ETFs (XES, FCG, XOP) are up more than 40%, the Airline (JETS)

ETF ChartBook ETF Rankings The weight of the evidence is clearly bullish and we are seeing some fresh breakouts this week. SPY started the breakout party four weeks ago, QQQ joined in two weeks ago and two tech-related ETFs are making attempts this week. The breadth models reflect broad participation in the current advance. Even …

Weekend Video and Chartbook – Breakouts Extend and Multiply, Checking in on Greed, Silver Outperforms Gold and TIP outperforms TLT Read More »

Outside of sentiment and some extremes in price and breadth, one would be hard pressed to find negatives in the stock market right now. Stocks and risk assets are rising, while Treasury bonds and safe-havens are out of favor. Since November, SPY and QQQ are up more than 12% and IWM is up more than 20%. Oil and copper are up double digits. Clearly, the reopening trade has center stage.