Arthur Hill, CMT

A Failure Swing for QQQ, a dud
for SPY and a Wedge for RSP

Some ominous chart patterns are taking shape in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 500 SPDR and S&P 500 EW ETF. QQQ remains in a clear uptrend with a new high this week. SPY did not exceed its early June high this week and is lagging QQQ. RSP is lagging SPY because it is back below its 200-day SMA with a bearish wedge taking shape.

ETF Ranking and Grouping – Intermediate Uptrend Dominates the Charts – Focus on GLD and TLT

The intermediate trend is the dominant force at work for most stock-related ETFs and this trend is up. This is basically the uptrend from late March to mid June. The bears fired a shot across the bow last week with a sharp decline, but the bulls answered with a reversal day on Monday and pop on Tuesday. Most importantly, price action on Monday-Tuesday affirmed support for several ETFs and established a reaction low for others.

SPY Update and the
Preferred Moving Average Combo

This is just a short update for SPY and a decision on the preferred moving average combo for the S&P 500. After a plunge on Thursday, stocks firmed on Friday and forged an intraday reversal on Monday. This firmness is occurring near short-term support for many ETFs and the major index ETFs held their intermediate uptrends, which have been in place since late March. Small-caps, housing, biotech, gold miners and corporate bonds led the advance.

Weekend Video – Breadth Model Indicators, the SPY/TLT Reversals and the ChartBook

Today’s weekend video starts with the indicators that make up the breadth model and their individual signals. We then add some basic market timing and show the model signals over the last 20 years. I will also provide a preview of a short-term breadth model. Attention then turns to potential reversals in SPY and TLT, the rising wedges in RSP and IWM, the StochClose rankings and the ChartBook

ETF Ranking and Grouping – Volatility and Risk Remain High as Bonds and Gold Perk Up

The broader environment for stocks is technically bullish, but risk remains well above average. The S&P 500 moved above its 200-day SMA and the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. The %Above 50-day SMA indicators surged above 80% to trigger bullish and the Index Breadth Model based on StockCharts data triggered bullish on June 5th with five of nine indicators on bullish signals. That’s the bullish part.

Knowing When to Add Risk and When to Reduce Risk

The S&P 500 is the most widely used benchmark for the US stock market and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used moving average. These two came together again in late May as the index crossed back above on May 27th. Today we quantify the performance of prior signals and show how a little smoothing can go a long way. Furthermore, a simple market timing mechanism can tell investors when to add risk and when to seek alternatives to stocks.

Quantifying the QQQ Effect on SPY

We all know that many stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) are also part of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). In addition, it is clear that these QQQ stocks affect the performance of SPY. But how much exactly? Today we will answer that question and compare performance for these two ETFs.

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