QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs moved to new highs again this week, but these new highs were not matched elsewhere and non-confirmations are building. For example, QQQ forged a higher high from June 10th to June 24th, but SPY and IWM did not. QQQ and techs have been leading for some time, and they continue to lead. However,
Some ominous chart patterns are taking shape in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, S&P 500 SPDR and S&P 500 EW ETF. QQQ remains in a clear uptrend with a new high this week. SPY did not exceed its early June high this week and is lagging QQQ. RSP is lagging SPY because it is back below its 200-day SMA with a bearish wedge taking shape.
The weekend video starts with long-term and short-term breadth models for four major indexes: Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Only one of the four long-term breadth models is bullish – and no prizes for guessing which one. This week’s bounce established uniform support levels in dozens of ETFs to watch next week. There are ominous wedges in
Today we will dive into long-term and short-term breadth models using the same indicators for four different indexes. These models cover the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. Looking at a market of 1500 stocks, the evidence is mixed, at best. Three of the four long-term models are net bearish and all four short-term models are net bullish.
The intermediate trend is the dominant force at work for most stock-related ETFs and this trend is up. This is basically the uptrend from late March to mid June. The bears fired a shot across the bow last week with a sharp decline, but the bulls answered with a reversal day on Monday and pop on Tuesday. Most importantly, price action on Monday-Tuesday affirmed support for several ETFs and established a reaction low for others.
This is just a short update for SPY and a decision on the preferred moving average combo for the S&P 500. After a plunge on Thursday, stocks firmed on Friday and forged an intraday reversal on Monday. This firmness is occurring near short-term support for many ETFs and the major index ETFs held their intermediate uptrends, which have been in place since late March. Small-caps, housing, biotech, gold miners and corporate bonds led the advance.
Today’s weekend video starts with the indicators that make up the breadth model and their individual signals. We then add some basic market timing and show the model signals over the last 20 years. I will also provide a preview of a short-term breadth model. Attention then turns to potential reversals in SPY and TLT, the rising wedges in RSP and IWM, the StochClose rankings and the ChartBook
Stocks took it on the chin Thursday with the biggest weekly decline since declines began (March). Once again, small-caps and mid-caps led the way lower with outsized declines. Even more disconcerting, we saw outsized declines in some key large-cap sectors as the Consumer Discretionary SPDR fell over 5%, the Industrials SPDR fell over 8% and the Finance SPDR fell 7%.
The broader environment for stocks is technically bullish, but risk remains well above average. The S&P 500 moved above its 200-day SMA and the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. The %Above 50-day SMA indicators surged above 80% to trigger bullish and the Index Breadth Model based on StockCharts data triggered bullish on June 5th with five of nine indicators on bullish signals. That’s the bullish part.
The S&P 500 is the most widely used benchmark for the US stock market and the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used moving average. These two came together again in late May as the index crossed back above on May 27th. Today we quantify the performance of prior signals and show how a little smoothing can go a long way. Furthermore, a simple market timing mechanism can tell investors when to add risk and when to seek alternatives to stocks.
It was a big week on Wall Street as stocks surged with the biggest weekly gains since the initial lift off started (late March and early April). Small-caps and mid-caps led the way with gains exceeding 8%. Large-caps lagged as SPY gained a measly 5% and QQQ advanced a paltry 2.71%. These moves triggered
The market is a forward looking beast and we are seeing some pretty strong signals from short-term and medium-term breadth indicators. The long-term breadth indicators, however, are still lagging and have yet to trigger. Today I will put a medium-term breadth model to the test and show how to improve results with a simple timing mechanism.
Before looking at the ETF rankings and charts, note that the S&P 500 closed above its 200-day SMA at the end of May and this signaled the all clear for some trend-following and momentum strategies. Many trend-following and momentum strategies are only active when the S&P 500 is in a long-term uptrend because
Today’s video will start with a 16+ year backtest of a slightly modified version of the Index Breadth Model. These results will be compared to buy-and-hold and a 5/200 cross for the S&P 500 SPDR. I will then review the current signals in the StockCharts breadth indicators. The upswing since late March dominates right now so
Today we will dive into breadth indicators and test a modified version of the Index Breadth Model here at TrendInvestorPro. First, however, I will review the S&P 500 SPDR as it toys with its 200-day SMA here at month end. In particular, I am monitoring upswings in four key major index ETFs. After the breadth dissertation
We are seeing some rotation in the market as the leaders stall and the laggards get in gear. The leaders from mid March to mid May lagged over the last two weeks, while the laggards from this period led. ETFs related to bonds, gold, healthcare and technology led the market during the rebound period and were the first to move back above their 200-day SMAs
The S&P 500 is at a moment of truth and the direction it takes will have ramifications throughout the stock market. Today we will review the indicators in the Index Breadth Model, show that the large-cap Bullish Percent Indexes are holding up better and cover the rising High-Low Lines. I will then turn to the QQQ effect on SPY and look at recent signals in SPY