Weekend Video – Broad Market is Bullish, Despite Concerns, Gold Sets Up, XLV and XLB Reverse after Pullbacks (Premium)

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Stocks started their rebound with 1-day breadth thrusts on December 2nd and continued higher this week. Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead overall, while small-caps and next gen Nasdaq 100 stocks are lagging. After a big move last Tuesday, many of the high beta and momentum names fell back on Thursday and Friday. This pop and drop sets up the possibility for a follow through advance. Note that the Fed meets next week with its policy statement expected on Wednesday afternoon. We can therefore expect some volatility in Treasury bonds, gold and the Dollar. Bank-related ETFs will also be on the hot seat because they are positively correlated with the 10-yr Treasury Yield. Within the ETF list, I am seeing some short-term breakouts in Healthcare (XLV, IHI), Energy (XOP, XES), Materials (XLB) and Infrastructure (IFRA).

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Yield Spreads Fall Back, but Remain Elevated
  • Fed Balance Sheet Expands by Modest Amount
  • %Above SMA Indicators Wane, but Remain Bullish
  • 10-day Bearish Breadth Thrusts Loom
  • 1-day Bullish Breadth Thrusts on Breakouts (sans QQQ and QQQJ)
  • SPY Holds Strong and QQQ Holds Gap
  • IWM and QQQJ Pull Back
  • Treasuries Fall as Stocks Rebound
  • GLD Firms Near Key Retracement (plus SLV)
  • Dollar Consolidates within Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • ETF Ranking and Trend Table Review
  • Tech and Staples Lead with New Highs (XLK, XLP)
  • Semis and Housing Remain Strong as Retail Hits Support (SOXX, ITB)
  • Healthcare ETFs Reverse Downswings with Bigger Bullish Patterns (XLV,IHI)
  • Materials and Infrastructure Hold Gaps and Breakouts (XLB, IFRA)
  • Oil Extends Surge ($WTIC, DBE)
  • XLE, XOP and FCG Break Out as XES Surges off Support
  • Electric Vehicle ETFs Pop after Pullbacks (DRIV, IDRV, CARZ)
  • A Tale of Two Clouds (CLOU vs SKYY)
  • Tech ETFs Battle for Short-term Breakouts (SKYY, CIRB, ROBO, BOTZ, IGV)
  • Networking Extends on Breakout (IGN)
  • Banks Brace for the Fed (XLF, KRE, KBE)
  • Metals and Mining ETF Attempts Reversal within Bigger Correction (XME)
  • Copper Miners Battle Breakout, but Copper Remains within Pullback (COPX, CPER)
  • Uranium Establishes Short-term Trigger Level (URA)
  • Watching for a Return to Risk On: ICLN, QCLN, TAN, IBB, GAMR
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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