Check out the Premium Page (click here) for articles and videos covering trading strategies, seasonality, exits, patterns and more.
The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising yield is generally positive for small-caps and banks, on a relative performance basis. Elsewhere, the Dollar extended its uptrend and gold broke out with a big move. Many ETFs in our universe are in the middle of their trends and there are not very many setups right now. ETFs related to Small-caps, Industrials, Infrastructure, Materials, Banks and Housing broke out of big consolidations in September-October. ETFs related to Technology and Electric Vehicles hit new highs and continue to lead. The copper-related ETFs broke out this week after throwbacks to support. XLC and FDN could be setting up for a bounce, and IBUY may be putting in a bottom.
Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.
Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
- Fed Balance Sheet Surges to Another New High
- Yield Spreads Show No Signs of Stress
- SPY and QQQ Lead with New Highs this Week
- Mid-caps and Small-caps Remain with Strong Breakouts
- Micro-cap ETF Challenges Channel Line
- 10-yr Treasury Yield and Relative Performance (IWM, KRE, QQQJ)
- TLT Reverses Upswing within Triangle
- 10-yr Treasury Yield Surges off 200-day
- Gold Breaks Summer Highs (SLV Breaks August High)
- Dollar Maintains Uptrend
- Oil Pulls Back within Bigger Uptrend
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- ETF Ranking and Trend Signal Table
- Leading and Short-term Extended: SKYY, CIBR, IGV, SOXX, LIT, REMX, URA, KBRN
- Leading and Short-term Extended: CARZ, IDRV, DRIV
- Multi-month Correction, Sept Breakout, New Highs: KRE, KBE
- Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout, New Highs: XLI, IFRA, XLB, XRT, XHB, MOO, DBA
- Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout: ITB, IYT, PBJ, XME
- September New High, Pullback, October Breakout: XLV, REMX, PHO
- Summer Correction, October Breakout: QCLN, TAN (plus ICLN)
- Copper/Metals ETFs with Breakouts: COPX, CPER, DBB
- Short-term Bull Flag/Pennant: XLF, XLU, KIE, IYR, REZ, IHI
- Energy ETFs Stall/Pullback: XLE, XES, XOP, FCG, AMLP
- Multi-month Correction, Shaky Breakout: ITA, JETS
- Short-term Oversold: XLC, FDN, BETZ
- Very Oversold and Stabilizing: BDRY
- Bottoming?: IBUY
- Biotechs Being Biotechs: IBB, XBI