Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)

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The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising yield is generally positive for small-caps and banks, on a relative performance basis. Elsewhere, the Dollar extended its uptrend and gold broke out with a big move. Many ETFs in our universe are in the middle of their trends and there are not very many setups right now. ETFs related to Small-caps, Industrials, Infrastructure, Materials, Banks and Housing broke out of big consolidations in September-October. ETFs related to Technology and Electric Vehicles hit new highs and continue to lead. The copper-related ETFs broke out this week after throwbacks to support. XLC and FDN could be setting up for a bounce, and IBUY may be putting in a bottom.

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Fed Balance Sheet Surges to Another New High
  • Yield Spreads Show No Signs of Stress
  • SPY and QQQ Lead with New Highs this Week
  • Mid-caps and Small-caps Remain with Strong Breakouts
  • Micro-cap ETF Challenges Channel Line
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield and Relative Performance (IWM, KRE, QQQJ)
  • TLT Reverses Upswing within Triangle
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Surges off 200-day
  • Gold Breaks Summer Highs (SLV Breaks August High)
  • Dollar Maintains Uptrend
  • Oil Pulls Back within Bigger Uptrend

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • ETF Ranking and Trend Signal Table
  • Leading and Short-term Extended: SKYY, CIBR, IGV, SOXX, LIT, REMX, URA, KBRN
  • Leading and Short-term Extended: CARZ, IDRV, DRIV
  • Multi-month Correction, Sept Breakout, New Highs: KRE, KBE
  • Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout, New Highs: XLI, IFRA, XLB, XRT, XHB, MOO, DBA
  • Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout: ITB, IYT, PBJ, XME
  • September New High, Pullback, October Breakout: XLV, REMX, PHO
  • Summer Correction, October Breakout: QCLN, TAN (plus ICLN)
  • Copper/Metals ETFs with Breakouts: COPX, CPER, DBB
  • Short-term Bull Flag/Pennant: XLF, XLU, KIE, IYR, REZ, IHI
  • Energy ETFs Stall/Pullback: XLE, XES, XOP, FCG, AMLP
  • Multi-month Correction, Shaky Breakout: ITA, JETS
  • Short-term Oversold: XLC, FDN, BETZ
  • Very Oversold and Stabilizing: BDRY
  • Bottoming?: IBUY
  • Biotechs Being Biotechs: IBB, XBI
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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