Weekend Video – Defensive ETFs Lead, Banks and Energy Extend on Breakout, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out, Tech ETFs Break Prior Lows (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Next week’s commentary schedule will be a bit different because I go in for a non-invasive operation next week Wednesday (12-Jan). My overall health is good, but DNA and age (59 years)  are calling. The procedure, which quite common, is a Holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP). I will go under a general anesthesia and should spend one or two nights in the hospital.

Next Week’s Schedule:

Monday, 10 January: Strategy Article/Video
Tuesday, 11 January: Market/ETF Commentary and Video
Saturday, 15 January: Weekend Video? (depending on recovery)

Note that I am aiming to post between 8 and 8:30 AM ET.

The stock market is as mixed as ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighted SPY and QQQ. Overall, the Composite Breadth Model remains net bullish, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness within the market. Nasdaq 100 breadth is relatively weak. Bonds did not offer a safe haven this week as TLT broke down and the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke out. Elsewhere, the DB Agriculture ETF and DB Base Metals ETF held up, as did the Copper ETF and Copper Miners ETF. The Uranium ETF is setting up as it firms in a potential retracement zone.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • AAA and Junk Spreads Narrow
  • Fed Balance Sheet Expands a Fraction
  • Six of the Magnificent Seven Are Under Pressure
  • QQQ Advance-Decline Percent Does Triple Dip
  • Nasdaq 100 %Above 200-day Lags
  • SPY and QQQ Fail to Hold Breakouts
  • QQQJ Breaks December Low as IWM Breakout Fails
  • TLT Breaks Wedge Support as 10yr Surges
  • GLD Reverses Upswing within Choppy Range
  • Dollar Corrects

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Staples-Related ETFs Lead (XLP, PBJ)
  • Finance and Banks Lead (XLF, KRE, KBE)
  • Bond Proxies Dip (XLU, XLRE)
  • Oil Extends on Breakout ($WTIC, DBE)
  • Energy Related ETFs Extend Breakouts (XLE, XOP, FCG, XES)
  • Materials SPDR and Infrastructure ETF Hold Breakouts
  • Metals & Mining SPDR Remains Near Resistance (XME)
  • Electric Vehicle ETFs Hold Breakouts (DRIV, IDRV, CARZ)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Maintains Uptrend (DBA)
  • Copper and DB Base Metals ETFs Hold Breakouts (CPER, DBB, COPX)
  • Uranium ETF Continues to Firm (URA)
  • Selling Hits Semis Too (SOXX, FIVG)
  • Home Construction ETF Plunges as Yields Surge
  • Healthcare SPDR Falls Back to Breakout Zone
  • Healthcare Related ETFs Hit Hard too (IBB, IHI, IHF)
  • Tech-Related ETFs Break December Lows (IGV, FDN, CIBR)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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