Market/ETF Video – %Above 200-day, New Highs vs Lows, Gold and Copper Hold Breakouts, Materials and Defense ETFs Surge, Ag and Wheat Are Setting Up (Premium)

Check out the Premium Page (click here) for articles and videos covering trading strategies, seasonality, exits, patterns and more.

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The major index ETFs are in the midst of a bounce, but this bounce is still considered a bear market bounce. The bigger trends are still down for SPY and QQQ, the Composite Breadth Model is negative and yield spreads are elevated. Despite bullish breadth thrusts in late May, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMAs remains anemic and we have yet to see new highs expand outside of energy. I am still being very selective with stock-based ETFs and focused on those in uptrends (XLU, DVY) or those that held up better in May (healthcare, defense, materials, steel, agribusiness). Oil remains the king of everything right now with the strongest uptrend. Energy related ETFs are right behind with many hitting new highs this week. Agricultural-related ETFs are in uptrends with bullish pullbacks in DBA and WEAT.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 200-day and High-Low Percent Indicators are Weak
  • BBB and CCC Spreads Show more Stress than Confidence
  • Fed Balance Sheet Flatlines
  • Gold Stalls after Short-term Breakout
  • Dollar Turns Up after Pullback
  • TLT Turns Down after Bounce
  • Oil Extends on Breakout and Leads the Markets

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Stock-based ETFs are Mostly Red on Trend Signal Table
  • Top 10 ETFs are Energy Related – And Then Agriculture ETFs
  • SPY Hits First Resistance-Reversal Zone with Oversold Bounce
  • Small-caps Lead Oversold Bounce, but I am Not Impressed
  • Energy and Utilities Are the Lone Uptrends (XLE, XLU, DVY)
  • Staples and Healthcare Show Relative Strength (XLP, XLV)
  • Energy ETFs Continue to Lead (XES, PSCE, FCG, XOP)
  • Materials, Steel and Agribusiness ETFs Lead 4-Week Bounce (RTM, XLB, XME, MOO)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETFs Follow Through on Breakouts (ITA, PPA)
  • Copper and Platinum Lead the Metals ETFs (CPER, PLTM – Plus DBB)
  • Palladium Remains Short of Breakout (PALL)
  • Agriculture and Wheat ETFs Form Bullish Continuation Patterns (DBA, WEAT)
    Coffee Holds Breakout as Sugar Falls Back into Flag (JO, CANE)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

Scroll to Top