Market/ETF Video – Bounces within Bigger Downtrends for SPY and Five Big Sectors, Choosing what to Focus on and What to Ignore (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The major index ETFs got big bounces last week, but these are still oversold bounces within bigger downtrends and within the context of a bear market. Despite some breadth thrusts, the Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and yield spreads remain very elevated. Gold is struggling to hold its breakout as the Dollar and Treasury yields pull back within a bigger uptrends. Oil remains strong as it extends on its early May breakout and energy-related ETFs are leading the pack. There are a number of short-term breakouts working over the last few weeks (XME, MOO, PPA, DBB, CPER, GLD). Today’s video will highlight these breakouts and show some techniques to prove them wrong (support level and ATR Trailing Stop).   

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • Oversold Bounce with Breadth Thrusts
  • Wealth Effect and Yield Spreads
  • Fed Balance Sheet Contracts Most since December
  • Gold Falls Back after Short-term Breakout
  • Dollar Pulls Back within Uptrend (watch for StochRSI pop)
  • TLT Breaks Wedge Line as 10-yr Treasury Yield Turns Up
  • Oil Works its Way Higher after Early May Breakout

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Energy-related ETFs Lead Ranking Table
  • New Uptrends in Gold, Palladium and Mexico
  • Focusing on ETFs that Fit Strategy (Uptrend, Chart Strength, Tradable Pullback)
  • Ignoring ETFs with Big Bounces from 52-week Lows (ICLN, IPAY, HERO, DRIV)
  • SPY and QQQ Bounce within Bigger Downtrends
  • Oversold Bounces within Bigger Downtrends for Big Sectors (XLK, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLC)
  • Ignore 1-day Pop-Drop and Focus on Trend with Energy ETFs (XLE, XES, PSCE, FCG)
  • Saudi Arabia ETF Bounces off Rising 200-day (KSA)
  • Healthcare SPDR is the Least Weak of the Big Sectors (XLV)
  • Utilities and Dividend ETFs with Uptrends, Normal Pullbacks and Breakouts (XLU, DVY)
  • Materials and Metals ETFs with Uptrends, Deeper Pullbacks and Breakouts (RTM, XME)
  • Agribiz and Defense ETFs with Successful Support Tests and Breakouts (MOO, ITA, PPA)
  • Palladium ETF Fails at Early May High (PALL)
  • DB Base Metals ETF and Copper Hold Short-term Breakout (DBB, CPER)
  • DB Agriculture, Wheat and Sugar ETFs Extend Pullbacks (DBA, WEAT, CANE)
  • Coffee ETF Goes for a Breakout (JO)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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