Market/ETF Video – Oversold in a Bear Market and Long-term Downtrend, Slim Pickings in Stock-Based ETFs, Metals Come Alive (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks remain short-term oversold and the major index ETFs are still near their May lows. This could give way to a bounce, but the bear market and long-term downtrends continue to provide stiff headwinds. There are a few stock-based ETFs holding up better than the broader market and still in uptrends. These are highlighted in the video. Even so, keep in mind that five of the big six sectors are weak and the consumer oriented ETFs are leading lower (housing, retail, discretionary). Energy and agriculture ETFs are still in uptrends and leading overall, and we are seeing gold and industrial metals ETFs perk up over the last two weeks.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 200-day Indicators Show Broad Weakness
  • BBB Spreads Exceed March 2022 Highs
  • Fed Balance Sheet Flatlines
  • Gold Reverses Short-term Downswing (Trend Comp Turns Up)
  • Dollar Corrects after Becoming Overbought
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Pulls back from 3%
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Gets Oversold Bounce

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Energy and Agriculture Lead Ranking Table
  • New Uptrends in Latin America, Agribusiness and Gold (ILF, MOO, GLD)
  • New Downtrends in Consumer Staples Related ETFs (XLP, RHS, PBJ, SPLV)
  • SPY and QQQ are Still Near Oversold Levels (temping, but…)
  • Higher Low in the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR Not a Big Deal
  • 5 of Big 6 Sectors Oversold (that’s more negative than positive)
  • Consumer Driven ETFs are Leading Lower (RCD, XRT, ITB)
  • Energy SPDR Hits New High and Leads (XLE – plus $WTIC)
  • Energy ETFs with Pullback/Correction and Breakout (PSCE, XES, FCG XOP)
  • Ag ETFs with Pullback and Breakout in May (DBA, CANE, WEAT)
  • Utilities with Pullback/Correction and Breakout (XLU – Plus DVY)
  • Metals, Materials and Steel with Uptrends and Deep Pullbacks (DBB, RTM, XME, SLX)
  • Healthcare and Agribusiness Hold January-March Lows (XLV, XLB, MOO)
  • Gold Holds December-January Lows with Short-term Breakout (GLD)
  • Copper Bounces off Range Support with Short-term Breakout (CPER – plus COPX)
  • Palladium Holds January Low, but No Short-term Breakout (PALL – plus PLTM)
  • Tech-Related ETFs Show ST Relative Strength, but not Biting (IWO, SOXX, IGV, IPAY)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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