Chart Trader – SPY and QQQ Buckle, Downside Projection, Oil Hits Extreme, A Bearish Setup in Retail (Premium)

It ain’t over until large-caps buckle. SPY and QQQ have yet to break short-term support. These two are holding the market up because we are seeing widespread weakness outside of a few large-caps. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF hit their lowest (closing) levels since late June. The Retail SPDR hit its lowest (closing

There are no changes in the broad market conditions. SPY and QQQ are in short-term uptrends and their breakouts held as both bounced over the last four days. These bounces affirm short-term support and keep

SPY and QQQ fell back after their breakouts and bounced off broken resistance levels. These short-term bounces affirm supports and keep the short-term uptrends alive. It is important to monitor these two because the rest of the market looks rather shaky. Breadth is not keeping pace, September seasonality is here and mid-caps are lagging.

The market looks fragile and is definitely split. Large-cap techs are leading, small-caps are lagging and mid-caps are caught in between. The long-term trends are up for SPY and QQQ as both hit new highs in July. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), in contrast, did not break their early February highs. They are largely range bound

The chart below shows 25-year seasonality for the S&P 500. There are three strong periods and three weak periods. The strong periods are mid March to early May, July, and mid-October to yearend (green arrows). The seasonally weak periods are January, mid-February to mid-March

The big trend is the dominant force at work and SPY remains in an uptrend since the higher high in early February. Seasonal patterns, even when strong, are secondary to the bigger trend. Seasonal weakness in September could still materialized

SPY peaked on July 27th with a big outside reversal day (red arrow) and broke short-term support with a gap-decline on August 2nd. SPY and the major index ETFs then fell into mid August and became

The S&P 500 SPDR and Nasdaq 100 ETF fell sharply in August, but these declines look like corrections within bigger uptrends. However, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF also fell. These two, in contrast, are in long-term trading ranges and immediate downtrends. We

Selling pressure intensified in August as we saw the first bearish breadth thrust since mid March. I use the 10-day EMA of Advance-Decline Percent to measure breadth thrusts.

Stocks are in pullback mode right now. We never know which pullback will extend far enough to result in a larger downtrend. Currently, the declines in SPY,QQQ and others look like pullbacks after big advances from May to July. There is, however, concern with recent reversals in retail (XRT) and banking (KRE). I would

Stocks moved into pullback mode the last few weeks. It started with QQQ peaking on July 19th and SPY peaking on July 31st. It is way too early to call these “major” peaks. At present, these are just short-term peaks because both ETFs are

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation remains strong. SPY and QQQ remain in short-term

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation remains strong. The only short-term negative is actually a long-term positive.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation continues to improve. We are seeing new highs in several tech-related ETFs, the Home Construction ETF and the Industrials SPDR.

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is positive (since March 31st), yield spreads show no stress and upside participation continues to improve. The Retail SPDR is coming to life and the Home Construction ETF continues

The weight of the evidence is bullish because the Composite Breadth Model is positive and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. We are also seeing some risk-on with Nasdaq 100 stocks, technology and housing leading the market.

High-Low Percent is the percentage of stocks making 52-week highs less the percentage of stocks making 52-week lows. The chart below shows High-Low Percent for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. This indicator turns bullish

High-Low Percent is the percentage of stocks making 52-week highs less the percentage of stocks making 52-week lows. The chart below shows High-Low Percent for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600. This indicator turns bullish with a move above 10% and bearish with a move below -10%. The first indicator window