Traders interested in Treasury bonds, Treasury bond ETFs and yields would be better off ignoring Fed-speak and focusing on the charts. The bond market leads the Fed, not the other way around.
There is a battle raging for the heart and soul of the bond market. In a rare divergence, short-term yields are rising and long-term yields are falling. As a result, the difference between the two is narrowing and the yield curve is flattening. The first chart shows the 5-yr yield surging from late February to early April, consolidating into June and breaking out of this consolidation. The breakout signals a continuation of the bigger uptrend and higher short-term yields are expected. A rising 5-yr yield would be bearish for the 3-7 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEI).
The next chart shows the 10-yr yield with a long basing process from April 2020 to December 2020 and a breakout at the beginning of 2021. The yield surged above 1.7% (17 on chart) and then fell back with a falling channel. The 5-yr yield is breaking out, but the 10-yr yield is within its falling channel. Nevertheless, this channel is viewed as a correction within a bigger uptrend. This is also a bullish continuation pattern and a breakout at 16.5 (1.65%) would signal an end to this correction. I would then target a move toward the 2% area. A breakout and move higher in the 10-yr yield would be bearish for the 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF).