Recent Commentary and Analysis

See the Premium page for welcome articles, trading strategies and more.

Weekend Video – Gaps, Dips and Rebounds, Normalized ROC Remains Bullish, Harami Patterns within Triangles in Tech-Related ETFs (Premium)

It was a week full of gaps, dips and rebounds. For example, SPY gapped down on Tuesday and tested its 50-day SMA on Wednesday. An inside day formed as the ETF rebounded on Thursday and another gap formed on Friday as SPY surged into Tuesday’s gap zone. Several tech related ETFs formed harami candlestick patterns near support and gapped up on Friday. These gaps, while short-term

Read More »

KRE Breakout Holds and Bodes well for Small-caps (Free)

The Regional Bank ETF pattern over the last few months is similar to that of the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF. This is not surprising because the financial services sector accounts for 17.8% of IJR and 16.34% of IWM, and is the second biggest sector for both

Read More »

Weekend Video – Broad Strength with the S&P 500, Old Economy ETFs Lead, May-June Seasonality, Think Twice on Crypto ETFs (Premium)

It was another week and another new high for SPY and the old economy. Outside of tech and high-growth, strength in the S&P 500 is broad as the S&P 500 Equal-weight ETF also hit a new high. ETFs related to industrials, finance, materials, consumer staples, transports, healthcare, energy, housing, steel, copper, and uranium hit

Read More »

Timing Models – Long-term Trends for the Big Three, Composite Breadth Model, Yield Spreads, Fed Balance Sheet (Premium)

The broad market environment (market regime) remains bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and the key inputs (breadth indicators) support this bull market. Even though QQQ dipped the last two weeks and IWM stalled since mid February (blue shading), SPY hit a new high recently and all three remain well above their rising 200-day SMAs (red lines).

Read More »

JETS Shows Short-term Relative Strength, PSCD Breaks Out, ITA forms Bullish Continuation Pattern and EPOL Extends after Breakout (Premium)

A benchmark high/low is a price peak/trough that we can use to compare performance. ETFs that break above benchmark highs, such as the mid March highs, show relative strength. ETFs that fail to exceed these highs show relative weakness. ETFs that break below benchmark lows, such as the late April lows, show relative weakness. ETFs that hold these lows show relative strength.

Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Old Economy ETFs Lead, Tech ETFs Lag, Clean Energy Breakdown, Gold and Silver Hold Breakouts (Premium)

Old economy ETFs continue to lead. ETFs related to industrials, materials, metals, housing and finance hit new highs. These ETFs were already in uptrends and they were simply extending on their breakouts, which occurred in March or April. Even though they are leading and in strong uptrends, many are getting quite extended and ripe for a rest. This means they are in the trend-monitoring phase.

Read More »

Seasonal Trends for the S&P 500 – Best and Worst Six Months, Monthly Breakdowns, Equity Curves (Premium)

Seasonality takes a back seat to price action when it comes to analysis and signals, but seasonal patterns can provide a tailwind to existing trends or fresh signals. This report will look at the best and worst six months, break down the monthly numbers and analyze trends in the equity curves. May is here and June-July are around the corner so we will focus on these three months.

Read More »

Weekend Video – Indecision, Whipsaws and Headfakes, Semis and Tech Lag, Old School Leads, Correction Odds (Premium)

The stock market has been churning the last few weeks with indecisive price action producing a fair number of whipsaws and head fakes. The old school ETFs associated with industrials, materials, REITs, housing, steel, metals and agriculture continue to lead. The high-beta high-flyers of 2020 continue to lag and many did not even make it back above

Read More »

Semis Loose their Shine (Free)

The long-term trend for the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) remains up, but the ETF is coming under some selling pressure and underperforming the broader market. While this is not enough reason to turn long-term bearish, it does increase the odds of corrective period in the coming weeks.

Read More »

Timing Models – QQQ Non-Confirmation, IWM Lagging, Oil Breaks Out, Bonds Reverse, Fed Balance Sheet Contracts (Premium)

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but we are seeing a short-term non-confirmation from QQQ and continued relative weakness in IWM. SPY remains the leader of the group with a new high this week. However, the current leg up is also getting quite extended because we have not seen a decent correction in six months. Even though the risk appetite returned to QQQ and

Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Dozens of ETFs in Trend-Monitoring Phase, Banks Break Out, XBI follows IBB and Metals Make a Move (Premium)

There are dozens of ETFs in the trend-monitoring phase because their setups evolved in February-March, they broke out at least a month ago and moved higher the last two months (or more). There is no real analysis to be done with these ETFs because they are in their post-breakout moves (trend-monitoring phase). Today’s report will show charts for these ETFs first.

Read More »
Scroll to Top