Arthur Hill, CMT

Of the 113 ETFs in the Core List, 79 are in uptrends (70%) and 34 are in downtrends (30%). This is more than enough to support a bull market in stocks. Six of the seven major index ETFs are in uptrends (SPY, RSP, MDY, IJR, IWM , QQQ) and one

SPY continues on its stairway to higher prices with another new high this week. We are also seeing strength in mid-caps as MDY holds its breakout and new trend signals in small-caps (IJR and IWM). Breadth is not as strong as it used to be, but strong enough to support a bull market. Yield spreads show no signs of stress and the

Breadth remains bullish overall. Some 80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and High-Low Percent expanded to +17.82% this week. This means some 18% of stocks in the S&P 500 recorded 52-week highs this week. While the percentage of stocks above the 200, 150 and 100 day SMAs is not as high

There were several new uptrend signals this past week and these signals suggest a stronger risk appetite in the stock market. Today’s report will review the StochClose indicator and some of these new trend-following signals. We will also show these signals on the revamped Ranking and Trend Table. Today’s charts also

Large-caps are doing it again with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting new highs. The small and micro-cap ETFs bounced, but this bounce may be too late as they already triggered downtrend signals. Overall, there are

The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish, which means the market regime is bullish. Breadth is not as strong as it was in April, but this has yet to affect the S&P 500. Over 90% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 100-day SMAs in April and now

Chop is the name of the game for a large part of the market. Some ETFs are grinding higher with tight and steady uptrends (SPY, XLC) and some are in more volatile uptrends (QQQ, IHI). Several of these are quite extended too. We saw a number of

Large-caps remain in bull mode with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF leading. Small-caps and micro-caps tell another story with downtrend signals based on StochClose. We have yet to see a flight to safety that could trigger a correction in SPY, but I am watching TLT as it forms a bull

The Composite Breadth Model remains bullish, which means the market regime is bullish. However, we are seeing more deterioration under the surface and also some strength in Treasuries, which are risk off assets. We were seeing a rotation into ETFs relate to finance, industrials, and materials as the 10-yr yield surged above its 200-day SMA

ETF Ranking, Signals and Setups Table Watch out for rising correlation in the stock market. Selling pressure was concentrated in large-caps on Wednesday as S&P 500 Advance-Decline Percent (-78.2%) plunged to its lowest level since June 18th. I view the plus and minus 80% levels as significant because they represent 90% up/down days. Plus/Minus 80%

Today’s commentary will look at the recent widening in Junk bond spreads because this widening shows less confidence in corporate bonds with the highest risk. We are also seeing some risk aversion in the stock market because small-caps are lagging large-caps. Small-caps represent higher

The stock market remains in bull mode overall with some 84% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. Recent breakouts in equal-weights and mid-caps bode well, but short-term bearish patterns in small-caps

The stock market environment is bullish and we are seeing a rotation within the stock market. Yield spreads are edging up, but so is the Fed balance sheet. Elsewhere, we are seeing more risk appetite when looking at the stock/bond ratio. The recent breakdown in bonds appears

Signs of rotation kicked in with a big surge in the 10-yr yield and the rotations continued over the past week. We are seeing leadership from the groups that lagged from May to July. These are ETFs related to finance, industrials, materials and housing. ETFs related to tech and healthcare led the market from May to July and these groups could be poised

Signs of rotation suddenly appeared in the markets with the Treasury bond ETFs falling sharply and the 10-yr yield surging. The Dollar followed yields higher, while the Gold SPDR followed bonds lower. Within the stock market, we saw strength in banks lift small-caps and weakness in XLY and XLK weigh on the S&P 500 SPDR. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 EW

As its name suggests, the Sports Betting iGaming ETF (BETZ) is designed to capture the rise in online gambling. Online gambling has been around for a while, especially in Europe, but it is relatively new in the US because more state legislatures are making it legal. I am not here to argue the fundamentals

This report covers the intermarket arena: oil, bonds, gold and the Dollar. In particular, the 200-day SMAs are in play for the Treasury Bond ETFs, the 10-yr Treasury Yield, the Gold SPDR and the Dollar Bullish ETF. The Treasury bond ETFs and Dollar are just above their FALLING 200-day SMAs, and the Gold

Tech, Healthcare, Communication Services, REITs and Water are leading the market since mid May. ETFs related to Finance, Industrials, Materials and Energy corrected in June and July. Some made bids to end these corrections (Housing, Copper, Steel) and some are struggling to get above resistance (XLI, XLF). Downtrends in the Regional Bank ETF