Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)

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Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 22 March: Market/ETF Commentary

Thursday, 24 March: Trend Composite Strategy (part 6): Rebalancing and Stops

Saturday, 26 March: Weekend Video

Note that the Weekend video moves to Wednesdays in April.

This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section starts with the Trend Composite Signal and Ranking Table. We highlight the leading ETFs, ETFs with new trend signals and more. Analysis then turns to the charts for emerging trends and setups.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • Yield Spreads Narrow with Sharp Move, but Remain Elevated
  • Fed Balance Sheet Hits New High
  • NDX Gets Two One-day Breadth Thrusts – Others Do Not
  • %Above 200-day SMA Indicators Gyrate Around 40%
  • SPY Breaks Early March High with Biggest 4-day Surge since Nov-2020
  • QQQ Follows SPY
  • Small-caps and Mid-caps Lag (still a large-cap world)
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Exceeds 2% as TLT Breaks 2021 Lows
  • Gold and Oil Retrace with Hard Throwback
  • Dollar Edges Lower after New High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Early Bird or Second Mouse?
  • New Uptrend and Breakout in XLV
  • Infrastructure and Agribusiness ETFs have Leading Uptrends (IFRA, MOO)
  • Energy ETFs get Short Pullbacks after New Highs (XES, XLE)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Forms Small Bull Wedge (DBA – Plus CANE)
  • DB Base Metal ETF Gets Hard Pullback after New High (DBB)
  • Copper and Copper Miners ETFs Maintain Choppy Uptrends (CPER, COPX)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETFs with Pullbacks after Breakouts (ITA, PPA, XAR)
  • Banks and Residential REIT ETFs Maintain Choppy Uptrends (KRE, KBE, REZ)
  • XLB Gets Wedge Breakout within Choppy Uptrend (plus RTM)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Maintain Upswings within Corrections (PBW, ACES, ICLN)
  • Cybersecurity Leads Tech with Flag Breakout (CIBR)
  • Tech, Semis and Networking Form Big Wedges (XLK, SOXX, IGN)
  • Small Growth and EW C. Discreti go from 52w Lows to 10% Surges (IWO, RCD)
  • Tech ETFs with 52-wk Lows and 3x ATR surges (SKYY, FINX, FDN, IPAY, IGV)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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