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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – SPY Becomes Oversold, Copper ETFs Return to Breakout Zones, IBB Sets Up with Wedge (Premium)

Stocks were hit with a double whammy the last three trading days: the Omicron plunge on Black Friday and the Powell plunge on Tuesday. These, at least, seem to be the reasons given in the financial media. SPY fell 2.2% on Friday, rebounded somewhat on Monday and then fell 2% on Tuesday

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – SPY Becomes Oversold, Copper ETFs Return to Breakout Zones, IBB Sets Up with Wedge (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Three Tech ETFs Set Up, Clean Energy ETFs Pull Back after Breakouts, Banks Fall with 10yr Yield (Premium)

I used to have a Friday night poker group and this was the motto when someone needed to call a big bet. Go big or fold. For the stock market, large-caps are the name of the game and technology is still the best performing sector

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Three Tech ETFs Set Up, Clean Energy ETFs Pull Back after Breakouts, Banks Fall with 10yr Yield (Premium) Read More »

Measuring Oversold Conditions, TLT Forms Bullish Pattern, DBE and Stop-loss Strategies (Premium)

Big and sudden declines create short-term oversold conditions ripe for a short bounce, but they also distort chart patterns with their volatility. These outsized moves make chart analysis difficult and the volatility increases risk overall. Note that these moves occurred on a pseudo holiday and could be over-reactions

Measuring Oversold Conditions, TLT Forms Bullish Pattern, DBE and Stop-loss Strategies (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Leads with New High, Clean Energy ETFs Form Bullish Setups, Copper ETFs Pull Back (Premium)

The bull market remains in place, but we are seeing some short-term weakness in the breadth indicators. This weakness is reflected in small-caps, which pulled back the last two days. Pullbacks from new highs are normal and this could produce a bullish setup in the coming

Weekend Video – Short-term Breadth Wanes, QQQ Leads with New High, Clean Energy ETFs Form Bullish Setups, Copper ETFs Pull Back (Premium) Read More »

Short-term Breadth Underwhelms, TLT Ignores Inflation and Holds October, Dollar Extends Uptrend, Oil is Poised to Become Oversold (Premium)

The Market Regime is bullish, which means we are in a bull market. However, there are signs of underlying weakness over the last few days and this could give way to a pullback. Note that predicting a pullback within a bigger uptrend is challenging because the bigger uptrend is still

Short-term Breadth Underwhelms, TLT Ignores Inflation and Holds October, Dollar Extends Uptrend, Oil is Poised to Become Oversold (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech Still Leading, Small-caps Pull Back, Copper Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout, Lots of Bull Flags Out There (Premium)

After a nice run from early-mid October to early-mid November, trading conditions turned rough with choppy price action the last two weeks. The tech-related ETFs are still leading, but still quite extended short-term. Some old economy ETFs extended further on their medium-term breakouts and

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech Still Leading, Small-caps Pull Back, Copper Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout, Lots of Bull Flags Out There (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)

The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising

Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium) Read More »

The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium)

The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts

The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium)

The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium)

The bull market is clear and present with new highs in large-caps, large-cap techs, mid-caps and small-caps. Micro-caps are the only missing component, but IWC is very close. Participation continues to expand with breakouts in the Industrials

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium)

The October run continued into November with small-caps breaking out and participation expanding. Some of the old leaders, however, are still leading with new highs in QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs. The setups and breakouts from early-mid October are bearing fruit and ETFs with big runs the last four to five weeks are in the trend-monitoring phase.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium) Read More »

Rails Drive Transports Higher, Copper ETF Throw Back to Breakout, Infrastructure ETF Challenges August Highs, Steel ETF Stalls (Premium)

This commentary is an addition to Thursday’s ETF report. ETFs in today’s commentary formed long corrective patterns from spring to fall and made various breakout attempts here in October. The Transports ETF is the leader with a strong move above the August high. The copper and base metals

Rails Drive Transports Higher, Copper ETF Throw Back to Breakout, Infrastructure ETF Challenges August Highs, Steel ETF Stalls (Premium) Read More »

Small-caps and Healthcare Perk Up, TLT Gyrates as 10-yr Trends, Gold Challenges 200-day, Dollar Swings To and Fro (Premium)

The Market Regime remains bullish with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs on Thursday. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) hit new highs Monday-Tuesday and then fell back pretty hard on Wednesday, before bouncing on Thursday. New highs are clearly more bullish than bearish. The noise level is

Small-caps and Healthcare Perk Up, TLT Gyrates as 10-yr Trends, Gold Challenges 200-day, Dollar Swings To and Fro (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech-related ETF Get Extended, BETZ, BDRY and KRBN Form Short-term Bullish Setups (Premium)

Earnings season is in full swing and this is leading to a little more volatility. Volatility mostly affects individual stocks, but it can also affect market cap weighted ETFs when the big components make big moves. Overall, the market regime remains bullish with fresh new highs in SPY, RSP and MDY. There are not

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech-related ETF Get Extended, BETZ, BDRY and KRBN Form Short-term Bullish Setups (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Old Economy ETF Come to Life, Tech Remains Strong, Biotechs Get Interesting (Premium)

Stocks continued their October run with the S&P 500 SPDR, S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR hitting new highs. Participation is clearly broadening and this is reflected in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above selective moving averages. There were also 17 new uptrend signals via the StochClose indicator.

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Old Economy ETF Come to Life, Tech Remains Strong, Biotechs Get Interesting (Premium) Read More »

Participation Broadens, Seasonal Patterns are Bullish, TLT Turns Back at Support Break, Oil Hits Another New High (Premium)

The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened here in October. The Finance SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit new highs in October, and the Technology SPDR ended its correction with a breakout. Broadening participation comes from the Industrials SPDR and

Participation Broadens, Seasonal Patterns are Bullish, TLT Turns Back at Support Break, Oil Hits Another New High (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals, Energy and Banks Lead, Industrials and Materials Perk Up, Uptrend Signals in Clean Energy (Premium)

SPY and QQQ ended their corrections with breakouts last week and this is bullish for the broader market. Small-caps (IJR) are also making a breakout bid as strength within the market broadens. In particular, we are seeing leadership from ETFs associated with industrial

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals, Energy and Banks Lead, Industrials and Materials Perk Up, Uptrend Signals in Clean Energy (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Follow Through with Strong Breadth, Tech ETFs Surge, Industrial Metals Lead (Premium)

Stocks surged again on Thursday, but this week’s surge was different than the Thursday’s surge the prior week. SPY and QQQ followed through after the open and S&P 500 breadth showed broad participation. Small-caps also bounced, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR

Weekend Video – Follow Through with Strong Breadth, Tech ETFs Surge, Industrial Metals Lead (Premium) Read More »

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