Archive

Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium)

Stocks became extremely oversold last week after a sharp five day decline that looked like a selling climax. This five day decline was already on top of a sharp decline from April 21st to 27th (-8.5%). All told, there was

Market and ETF Report – Bear Market Continues to Broaden, Energy and Agriculture Hold Up, Industrial Metals Hit (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Selling Pressure Continues to Broaden, Short-term Bearish Extremes, Ag and Energy Lead (Premium)

The bear market widened its grip on stocks as more participated in the decline over the last few weeks. New lows expanded dramatically the last two weeks and more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Safe-haven groups were also hit as utilities and consumer staples fell. The safe-haven groups are

Market/ETF Video – Selling Pressure Continues to Broaden, Short-term Bearish Extremes, Ag and Energy Lead (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Short-term Oversold, Oil and Ag Commodities Hold Up, Industrials Metals Hit (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and we are in a bear market environment for stocks. Oil and agricultural commodities remain relatively strong, but industrial metals were hit pretty hard the last two weeks. Downside participation

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Short-term Oversold, Oil and Ag Commodities Hold Up, Industrials Metals Hit (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Downside Participation Broadens, Industrial Commodities Hit, Oil and Ag Remain Strong (Premium)

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and participation to the downside expanded significantly over the last six trading days. Even the low volatility leaders were hit hard and there were few places to hide as correlations rose among stocks. Bonds managed to firm, but do not offer an alternative to stocks

Market/ETF Video – Downside Participation Broadens, Industrial Commodities Hit, Oil and Ag Remain Strong (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report –  Downside Participation Broadens, QQQ and IWM Lead Lower, Three ETFs in Uptrends with Oversold Conditions (Premium)

It is not pretty out there. The Composite Breadth Model is bearish and yield spreads are rising. We are also seeing large-techs (QQQ) and small-caps (IWM) lead the broader market lower. Selling pressure intensified with lopsided down days on Friday and Tuesday. Basically

Market and ETF Report –  Downside Participation Broadens, QQQ and IWM Lead Lower, Three ETFs in Uptrends with Oversold Conditions (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Breadth Deteriorates, Leading ETFs Take Hits, Some Commodity ETFs Hold Up (Premium)

The broad market environment for stocks was more bearish than bullish early last week and became even more bearish after the sharp decline on Thursday-Friday. Downside participation broadened as many of the market leaders were hit hard. We are talking about the Metals & Mining SPDR, the

Market and ETF Report – Breadth Deteriorates, Leading ETFs Take Hits, Some Commodity ETFs Hold Up (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – The Value of Plain Charts, Short-term Setups to Front Run, About that H&S in QQQ (Premium)

Today we are going to dive into the subjective world of chart analysis. The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks, but it is not overwhelmingly bearish because the S&P 500 breadth models are still net bullish. The market is quite divided and this is why SPY has been flat since September. The January-March decline

Market and ETF Report – The Value of Plain Charts, Short-term Setups to Front Run, About that H&S in QQQ (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence is Bearish, but Bulls are Still Fighting (Premium)

The weight of the evidence for the stock market remains more bearish that bullish. More stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above, volatility is above average for SPY and the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 SPDR and the S&P 500 EW ETF are trying to forge short-term reversals with big moves on Tuesday.

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence is Bearish, but Bulls are Still Fighting (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Defensive at Best, Bearish at Worst, Commodity-Related ETFs Continue to Lead (Premium)

The broad market environment for stocks is more bearish than bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is negative, more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above and the S&P 500 is below its 200-day. Also note that yield spreads are rising again, offensive groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading.

Market and ETF Report – Defensive at Best, Bearish at Worst, Commodity-Related ETFs Continue to Lead (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Know Thy Strategy, SPY vs Market, SPY vs XLB, Software vs Cybersecurity (Premium)

There are often crosscurrents in the market and these can create confusion. For example, the Trend Composite for SPY is positive, but the 5-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. On the price chart, SPY appears to be in a downtrend in 2022, but there is a short-term bullish

Market and ETF Report – Know Thy Strategy, SPY vs Market, SPY vs XLB, Software vs Cybersecurity (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Weakness under the Surface and in Key Groups, Defensive and Commodity ETFs Lead (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish as the 5-day SMA for SPX crossed below the 200-day SMA. Despite whipsaws in the model, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA and High-Low Percent paint a picture of weakness in 2022. SPY and RSP may be holding up, but the

Market/ETF Video – Weakness under the Surface and in Key Groups, Defensive and Commodity ETFs Lead (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defining Oversold, Working with Sentiment Indicators, High Beta vs Low Volatility (Premium)

The broad market ETFs were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with growth oriented groups leading the way lower. SPY fell 1%, QQQ was down 2.17%, the Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5% and the Russell 2000 Growth ETF was down 1.88%. In contrast, groups associated

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defining Oversold, Working with Sentiment Indicators, High Beta vs Low Volatility (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Lead Split Market, Commodity ETFs Set Up with Pullbacks, Wary of Flag Breakouts (Premium)

There are large pockets of strength in the stock market, but also large pockets of weakness. In fact, these pockets are almost equal and this is the reason the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since Thanksgiving. The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish and split. The S&P 500 trend model is net bullish

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Lead Split Market, Commodity ETFs Set Up with Pullbacks, Wary of Flag Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium)

This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. Analysis, then turns to the ETFs charts with leading trends, emerging trends and setups.

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium) Read More »

Scroll to Top