Market/ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce, Yield Spreads Surge, Energy and Ag Lead, Safe-Haven Stock Groups Hold Up Best (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks became extremely oversold last week after strong selling pressure and sharp declines. We are seeing an oversold bounce right now, but this is considered a bear market bounce because the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish and yield spreads show serious stress in the credit markets. ETFs related to energy and agriculture are leading the way with new highs. The safe-haven groups, such as utilities and staples, are holding up the best in the stock market. There are several ETFs that hit new highs in April and fell hard into early May. Their Trend Composites turned negative, but they held support zones and reversed downswings with sharp moves the last few days (XLV, ITA, MOO). We will also take a long-term look at copper.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • %Above 200-day and High-Low% Have yet to Hit Extremes
  • Junk Spreads Exceed March 2022 Highs
  • Fed Balance Sheet Flatlines
  • SPY and QQQ Get oversold Bounces
  • IWM Bounces after 20% Decline
  • Gold Falls to Winter Lows
  • Dollar is Overbought within Strong Uptrend
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield on Verge of a 10 year High
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Falls after Short Bounce

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • ETF Trend Signal Table Overview
  • Gold ETFs with New Downtrends (GLD, GDX)
  • Latin America ETF Triggers Bullish Signal (ILF)
  • XLE Leads Energy ETFs with Fresh New High ($WTIC, XES, FCG)
  • Sugar and Wheat ETFs Lead Ag to New Highs (DBA, CANE, WEAT)
  • Safe-haven Groups Hold Up Best (XLP, XLU, IFRA, SPLV, PBJ, DVY)
  • Metals & Mining SPDR Remains with Normal Pullback (XME)
  • DB Base Metals ETF Gets Oversold Pop (DBB)
  • Healthcare SPDR Holds Up Best of the Big Sectors (XLV)
  • Bounce Targets for 3 Big Sectors (XLK, XLY, XLF)
  • Insurance ETF and Materials SPDR Bounce off Range Support (KIE, XLB)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETFs Surge off Support Zones (ITA, PPA)
  • Agribusiness ETF Surges off Support Zone (MOO)
  • Copper and Palladium ETFs Bounce within Downtrends (PALL, CPER)
  • Platinum ETF Shows Relative Strength, but Short of Breakout (PLTM)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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