Market/ETF Video – Selling Pressure Continues to Broaden, Short-term Bearish Extremes, Ag and Energy Lead (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The bear market widened its grip on stocks as more participated in the decline over the last few weeks. New lows expanded dramatically the last two weeks and more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs. Safe-haven groups were also hit as utilities and consumer staples fell. The safe-haven groups are still holding up better than the broader market (down less), and have normal pullbacks working. Commodities related to energy and agriculture continue to lead overall with uptrends. Commodities related to industrial metals and precious metals are more mixed as copper and silver were hit hard. In short, there are not many places to hide out there.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Ticks Down a Notch
  • %Above 200-day and High-Low Indicators Deteriorate
  • Oversold Can Be a Sign of Weakness
  • SPY and QQQ Hit Lower Lines of Falling Channel
  • Three Day Decline Looks like Selling Climax
  • Excessive Bearishness Short-term
  • Low Volatility ETF is Not Immune to Bear Market
  • Gold Extends Correction
  • Dollar Hits New High
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Fully Normalizes
  • Yield Spreads Widen Considerably

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • More New Downtrend Signals (ITA, PPA, IFRA, MOO)
  • Oil Falls Back after Wedge Breakout, but Remains Bullish (WTI, DBE)
  • XLE Still Leading as XES Hits 50% Retracement (plus FCG)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Becomes Oversold with Inside Day (DBA)
  • Wheat Gets Short-term Breakout as Sugar Firms in Reversal Zone (WEAT, CANE)
  • Palladium and DB Base Metals ETFs Hang on to Uptrends (PALL, DBB)
  • Safe-haven Groups with Normal Pullbacks (XLP, XLU, PBJ, DVY)
  • Metals & Mining SPDR with Deeper Pullback (XME)
  • Did not Break February Lows, But New Downtrends
  • Copper is Down Year-to-date as Silver Hits 52wk Low (COPX, CPER, SLV)
  • REITs Succumb to Bear Market: IYR, XLRE, REZ
  • Home Construction ETF Forms Bear Flag (ITB)
  • 52wk Lows for 5 of Big 6: XLK, XLF, XLI, XLC, XLY
  • EW Consumer Discretionary and Retail ETFs Hit New Lows (RCD, XRT)
  • Tech ETFs with 52wk Lows: SKYY, FINX, CIBR, FDN, IPAY, IGN, IGV, IBB
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
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