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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video
The weight of the evidence for the stock market remains more bearish that bullish. More stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above, volatility is above average for SPY and the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 SPDR and the S&P 500 EW ETF are trying to forge short-term reversals with big moves on Tuesday. Let’s face it. The stock market has a bullish bias and this makes it incredibly difficult to make money shorting stocks. My basic strategy is to trade bullish setups within uptrends and to focus on stock-related ETFs when the Composite Breadth Model is bullish. Even though QQQ and some others are trying to bottom, I am not a bottom picker and am not focused on these setups because they do not fit my strategy. Instead, I remain focused on ETFs with uptrends and short-term bullish patterns, several of which are highlighted in the video below.
Broad Market Notes
- Composite Breadth Model is Bearish and Mixed
- 5/200 Cross as a Risk Calculation
- Average 1-day Change in SPY and QQQ
- Some 60% of S&P 1500 Stocks below their 200-day SMAs
- SPY and QQQ Go for Short-term Reversals within Bigger Downtrends
- S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR Show Short-term Strength
- S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR is Just a Mess
- TLT Plunges to New Lows Again
- TLT Drags the Whole Bond Market Lower (TIP, JNK)
- BBB and CCC Spreads Remain Elevated
- GLD and SLV Fall Back after Breakouts
- UUP Extends to New Highs
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:
- ETF Trend Signal and Ranking Table Review
- Check the Chart when Seeing New Signals (BUG)
- Energy ETFs are Still the Leaders (XLE, PSCE, XES, FCG)
- Oil with Big Swings within Bigger Bullish Consolidation
- Offensive Sectors Bounce within Downtrends (2/3 of S&P 500)
- Defensive Sectors in Leading Uptrends (XLP, PBJ, XLU, IFRA, XLV, IHF)
- Materials SPDR Gets a Pennant Breakout (XLB, RTM)
- Residential REIT ETF Breaks Out of Bull Flag (REZ)
- Cybersecurity versus Software and Mobile Payment ETFs (CIBR, IPAY, IGV)
- Insurance and REIT ETFs Form Bullish Patterns (KIE, REZ, IYR)
- Aerospace & Defense ETFs Break Out of Flags (ITA, PPA)
- Agribusiness and Metals & Mining ETFs Follow their Commodities (MOO, XME)
- Uranium ETF Pulls back within Uptrend (URA)
- Global Timber Forestry ETF Gets a Flag Breakout (WOOD)
- Strategic Metals ETF Stabilizes in Reversal Zone (REMX)
- Palladium ETF Consolidates after Breakout (PALL)
- DB Base Metals ETF Forms Bullish Pattern (DBB – plus CPER, COPX)
- DB Agriculture and Related ETFs in Uptrends (DBA, CANE, WEAT)