Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:

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ETF Report – High Beta Names Hit – Risk-Off Names Rise – Lower Highs in Key Groups – GLD Strong

Stocks were hit hard the last three days with the high-beta names leading lower. Defensive groups (Healthcare, Staples, Utes) and bonds picked up the slack. Even though the weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, there are some sizable pockets of weakness with lower highs forming in key groups (banks, industrials, software, infrastructure), as well as fresh new lows in housing ETFs. Gold is holding strong, but Bitcoin is under pressure as part of the risk-on trade.

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Market Regime Report/Video – NDX Breadth Leads – S&P 1500 Lags – 10y Yield Battles Breakout

The weight of the evidence continues to support a bull market in stocks. All three major index ETFs are in long-term uptrends and all nine breadth indicators are on bull signals (%Above 200-day SMA, %Above 150-day SMA, High-Low Percent). The breadth indicators weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with Nasdaq 100 breadth

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ETF Video – XLK New High – AI and Cybersecurity Lead – XLI & PAVE Turn Up – Bitcoin Gets Quiet

Don’t look now, but tech is back with XLK joining QQQ in the new high parade. We are also seeing new highs in ETFs related to Cybersecurity and AI, as well as breakout extensions in Software (IGV) and Cloud (SKYY). Semis continue to lag, but we will take a second look at the SMH chart with a longer timeframe. Elsewhere, ETFs related to industrials are turning back up, defense ETFs pulled back after new highs and the banking ETFs are holding their breakouts.

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ETF Report – QQQ Leads – MAGS Sets Up – Aero/Defense Pulls Back – Industrials Attempts Breakout

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks (bull market). Large-caps (SPY, QQQ) are leading equal-weights, mid-caps and small-caps (RSP, MDY, IWM). QQQ is leading SPY because the former recorded a fresh 52-wk high last week. Several tech-related ETFs are leading the market with bullish setups forming in MAGS and CLOU. I am also watching the flag breakout in Industrials SPDR and setups in four related ETFs (Aerospace & Defense and Infrastructure).

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Market Regime Report – RSP Lags – Breadth Weakens – 10-yr Yield Extends on Breakout

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but signs of weakness are appearing under the surface and rates are rising. SPY is near a new high this year, but fewer stocks made it back above their 150 and 200 day SMAs this year, and there were fewer new highs. Breadth is deteriorating and we are now seeing a breakout in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. This could foreshadow a corrective period for the broader market.

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ETF Video – Bull Pattern for SPY – Wedge Breakouts Holding – Setups in Industrials, Utes, Infra

Large-caps remain strong with SPY forming a bullish continuation pattern and QQQ holding its recent breakout. Small-caps, in contrast, are struggling with their breakouts and lagging. There were lots of wedge breakouts in mid January and these are holding. I am raising my re-evaluation levels on several ETFs. More recently, I am seeing short-term breakouts in ETFs related to industrials and utilities. We also cover ETFs related to AI, blockchain and managed futures.

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ETF Report – SPY/QQQ Lead – AI ETFs Surge – XLI/PAVE Trigger – Bank ETFs Hold Breakouts

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but small-caps and mid-caps continue to lag. We are watching a bullish pattern in SPY and a breakout QQQ. Several tech-related ETFs extended on their mid January breakouts and hit new highs. Elsewhere, short-term bullish patterns formed for ETFs related to industrials, infrastructure and defense.
The Finance SPDR (XLF) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC) are leading the sectors with new highs here in February. The Technology SPDR (XLK) is holding up as it surged off support

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ETF Video Report – Tech Lags – Health Rebounds – Cybersecurity, Defense, MLP and Gold Lead

There were many wedge breakouts in mid January and most of these breakouts are holding. Chartists must now set the level that proves these breakouts wrong. Today’s video starts with an example using the Software ETF. We then show the re-evaluation levels for several ETFs with wedge breakouts. Elsewhere, the Technology SPDR is lagging, the Healthcare SPDR is rebounding, the Biotech ETF is going for a breakout and the Gold SPDR is leading with a new high.

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ETF Report – Re-evaluation Levels for Wedge Breakouts – 9 Leaders

The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, despite an uptick in volatility and a wild news cycle. We are seeing upside leadership from finance, communication services, defense, medical devices, pipelines, cloud, cybersecurity and gold. We are also seeing lots of wedge/channel breakouts and most are holding. Here is the leading ETF symbol list

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Cybersecurity Makes Yet Another Statement

The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) has been leading the market for a solid four months and recorded yet another new high this week. Chartists looking to take advantage of this leadership can use two timeframes: one to establish the absolute and relative trends, and another to identify tradable pullbacks along the way. Note that CIBR has been on our radar for four months and was featured in October.

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AI Infrastructure Sell Off, MAGS Holds, NVDA Breaks, 3 Different AI ETFs, Semiconductors Break

Today’s report covers the sell off in AI infrastructure stocks and related ETFs. Monday’s decline were excessive, and perhaps an over-reaction, but they did some damage on the charts. NVDA broke its 200-day SMA and the two semiconductor ETFs broke support. Despite a big decline in NVDA, MAGS is holding support with help from other components. We will then look at three ETFs that represent different areas of AI (infrastructure, physical, software).

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Breadth Improves Even as Major index ETFs Fall

The major index ETFs fell on Monday, but breadth actually improved as the average stock held up well. This strength under the hood, and this is positive for stocks outside of the AI infrastructure trade. Today’s report will show advancing stocks outpacing declining stocks and an increase in the percentage of S&P 500 above their 200-day SMA. In short, the broader market is still in good shape.

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Breakouts Expand into Tech-related ETFs – XLK, XLC, MAGS, BOTZ, SKYY, CIBR, SMH, IGV, IBB

The breakouts are expanding as tech-related stocks surged this week. Last week we saw breakouts in some of the more mundane groups (industrials, finance, utes). Today’s report will focus on ETFs related to tech, the Mag7, AI, cloud, cybersecurity, semiconductors and biotech. With the exception of biotech, many of these ETFs led the market from September to November and then corrected into January. Their corrections ended with surges and breakouts over the last six days.

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Stocks Setups and Breakouts – BURL, JAZZ, BMY, ZS, VEEV, ACN, APLD, CDNS

There are eight stock setups today. All stocks are in uptrends of varying degrees and sport bullish continuation setups. These setups occur when there is a pullback or bullish continuation pattern forming. If they have yet to break out, I am marking the resistance level to watch (pink line). The re-evaluation level is a support level (blue line) to watch for signs of a failure.

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