Recent Commentary and Analysis
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S&P 500 Seasonal Patterns, Oil Breaks Out, an Outsized Decline in Gold, and the Dollar Tests Prior Lows (Premium)
SPY stalled the last seven weeks, but remains in a clear uptrend. Despite some concerns with seasonal patterns in June, August and September, the price chart for SPY remains strong and the Composite Breadth Model is fully bullish. The Fed balance sheet expanded this week and hit a new record
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – REITs and Energy Lead, XLK Hits Retracement, COPX Holds Breakout (Premium)
REIT and energy ETFs are leading the market right now as ETFs in these groups surged to new highs. Some old economy ETFs are not far behind with the Finance SPDR, the Metals & Mining SPDR and the Global Auto ETF also hitting new highs.
CARZ Revs its Soon-to-be Silent Engine (Free)
Some of the old Ford and GM cars can still rev their engines, but the sound of a revving engine could go the way of the dodo. Perhaps, I should say that the price chart for the Global Auto ETF (CARZ) is revving its engine and poised for a breakout.
Weekend Video – A Record Run, BBB Spreads, Bull Market Turns 1, Oversold Bounces in ITB and COPX, Upswings in CARZ and BETZ (Premium)
May was a volatile month for SPY with five swings of two percent or more, but the month ended slightly positive after a 3% upswing the last eight trading days. May is finished and now we head to June, which has a slightly negative seasonal bias. We will look at this seasonal pattern in today’s video and put the current
S&P 500 Makes History – Plus Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium)
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ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Healthcare and REITs Lead, Small-caps Remain Stuck, Tech-Related ETFs Hold their Short-term Breakouts (Premium)
There is a rotational or rolling correction underway in the stock market. Tech-related ETFs and high flyers peaked in mid February and corrected into May. During this period, the old economy ETFs picked up the slack and moved to new highs (industrials, materials, steel, copper, energy, banking, housing).
Signals and Expectations for Gold and Silver
(Part 1 with Video – Free)
The Gold SPDR (GLD) crossed above its 200-day EMA in early May and its 200-day SMA this past week. Both signals are “bullish” and point to a long-term uptrend, but tell us little regarding realistic expectations going forward. To get a better understanding, we need
Signals and Expectations for Gold and Silver
(Part 2 with Video – Premium)
This article is the second of a two part series where we put gold and silver to the test. The first article showed test results for crosses of the 200-day SMA and EMA. This article tests the Trend Composite signals
Weekend Video – SPY Stalls in Gap Zone, Tech ETFs Break Short-term Resistance, Down Gaps in XLI, XLE, XLB and XRT (Premium)
It was another week full of gaps. Tech-related ETFs rebounded and gapped up on Thursday. The old economy ETFs gapped down on Wednesday and did not partake in the tech rebound. Thus, we have up-gaps and short-term breakouts in tech competing with
Oil, Gold, Silver, Bonds and the Dollar (Premium)
This commentary will look at oil, gold, silver, bonds and the Dollar. I am sure that there are some intermarket narratives at work here, but I will try to stick with the price charts for a pure assessment. Oil is backing off of a massive resistance zone. Gold broke above the 200-day SMA as it extended its run and silver is challenging
ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Big 3 with Different Uptrends, EV ETFs Tests Support, Tech ETFs Consolidate near March Low (Premium)
The ETF universe is also split. We are still seeing plenty of strength in the old economy ETFs as several recorded new highs in May. The highest of the high flyers remain weak with ETFs related to clean energy, cannabis, cloud, ARK and biotech forging lower lows here in May (below their March lows). Most eyes are on some tech-related ETFs
Peak Parade, Seasonal Patterns, Small-cap Breadth Lags, A 90% Down Day, SPY Fails in Gap Zone, QQQ Continues to Struggle (Premium)
Stocks closed weak on Tuesday and are set to open lower on Wednesday, which means the corrective process is set to continue. It is still a bull market according to the Composite Breadth Model and the weight of the evidence, but the near-term picture is looking shaky with QQQ struggling
Identifying and Trading the Falling Wedge (Video) – Successes, Failures and Two Current Setups (Premium)
The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern that chartists can use to trade or invest in the direction of the underlying trend. I realized that some books show falling wedges as bullish reversal patterns, but I am only interested in bullish continuation patterns and I choose to ignore names that are hitting new lows. This video will show
Trading the Swing within a Bigger Pattern (Video) – A Success, A Failure and a Current Setup (Premium)
Chartists can get a jump on a bigger breakout by trading the swings within a developing pattern. In this example, I will outline the steps to identify these setups and the triggers for the trade. We will start with the overall
Trading a Short-term Bullish Pattern within a Bigger Bullish Pattern (Free)
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) was hit with the rest of the tech sector over the last few weeks, but it held the March lows and is on my radar as a possible triangle forms over the last few months. In particular, I am watching