Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Mkt/ETF Commentary – Defensive Groups Still Stronger, Commodities Turn Volatile, Bank ETF Sets Up (Premium)
The market environment is never certain and there are often conflicting signals. It would be easy to say this is one of the most uncertain times ever, but that is probably not the case. There have been plenty of price shocks, global events
Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table
The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.
Weekend Video – Market Regime Changes as New Highs Expand, Commodity Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators,
Trading Themes to Watch Going Forward (Free)
Several trading themes emerged over the past month and these themes could have legs. Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago and the broader market is significantly higher since the invasion. The Russell 2000 ETF is up
Trend Composite Strategy (Part 6) – Applying an ATR Trailing Stop and Testing Different Time Exits
Today’s article is the sixth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. We will take the strategy a step further by adding an ATR Trailing Stop and a time exit based on the number of bars in the trade. Time exits are similar to, but not exactly the same as, rebalancing.
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium)
It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are
SPY Gets its Biggest Surge since November 2020. Is it Enough? (Free)
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 5.77% from Tuesday to Thursday and this is the biggest 3-day surge since the 6.07% advance on November 5th, 2020. This early November surge led to a breakout and the advance extended until January 2022
Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section
Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives
Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)
It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.
The Damage is Done with the Expansion of New Lows (Free)
The broad market environment is the single most important factor to consider when investing in stocks or stock-related ETFs. Are we in a bull market or a bear market? The recent expansion of new lows and the 5/200 cross in the S&P 500 suggest that we are in a bear market environment.
Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)
The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing
Mkt/ETF Commentary – Weakness Expands, Shocks to the System, Defense and Cybersecurity Pull Back (Premium)
The markets are dealing with some serious systematic shocks and volatility remains well above average across the board. First and foremost, the Composite Breadth Model is
Silver Plays Catchup with the other Commodities (Free)
The pickings are rather slim with just 61 of the 276 ETFs in the TrendInvestorPro Master List in uptrends. Unsurprisingly, most of the ETFs in uptrends are related to commodities (energy, metals, agriculture). Outside of commodities, we are seeing