Recent Commentary and Analysis
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Market/ETF Video – Keys to Short-term Advance, Biotech and Clean Energy Breakouts, Wheat and Agriculture Firm (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a
Market and ETF Report – Resistance-Reversal Zones in Play, More Trend Composite Signals, Stops with Loose Pants (Premium)
We are seeing more bullish Trend Composite signals, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Of the 274 ETFs in the master list, there are 22 ETFs (13%) with positive Trend Composites (uptrends) and 152 (87%) with downtrends. The uptrend signals are
A Theme Emerges as One Group Pops within a Bear Market (Free)
The Composite Breadth Model at TrendInvestorPro has been bearish since April 11th and remains bearish, which suggests that the current bounce in SPY is a counter-trend advance within a bigger downtrend. Also note that
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Breadth Indicators for Thrust and Overbought Conditions, Tech ETFs Break May Highs, JO Intrigues Again (Premium)
Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term
Market/ETF Video – Resistance Reversal Zones are Nigh, Oils Tests Support, TLT Forms Bearish Pattern, Working with ATR Trailing Stops (Premium)
Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads
Market and ETF Report – Bear Market with Slim Pickings, Running into Resistance-Reversal Zone, Palladium Shines (Premium)
Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,
TAN Follows Trend Composite Signal with Breakout (Free)
Led by its top two components, Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) followed a bullish signal from the Trend Composite
Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 10) – Performance Update, Perspective on June Drawdown, First/Last Day of Week Entries
The previous article explained the methodology behind the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy with signal and ranking table examples. This article will update performance by showing the equity curve relative to buy-and-hold, putting the June drawdown
Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy (part 9) Update – Impulse vs In-State Signals, Understanding Entries, Leaders at the Start of a Bull Market
This is an update to the Trend-Momentum strategy that trades the All Weather ETF List. First introduced in February 2022, this strategy benefits from bull markets by focusing on stock-based ETFs when the Composite Breadth Model turns
Market and ETF Report – Dow Theory Update, Don’t Fight the Tape, Four of Six Alternative Assets in Downtrends (Premium)
Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing
Market/ETF Video – Widespread Weakness in Stocks, Downtrends in Metals and Agriculture Extend, Oil Tests Spring Lows (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial
Market and ETF Report – SPY Consolidates within Downtrend, Oil in Downswing, Defensive ETFs Holding Up the Best, PALL Breaks (Premium)
Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces, Oil Swings Lower, Healthcare Shows Relative Strength, Biotechs Get Extended (Premium)
After becoming very oversold in mid June, the major index ETFs are in the midst of oversold bounces or consolidations over the last three weeks. Predicting the extend of a bounce is tricky, but the current bounce since mid
Market/ETF Video – Oil Succumbs to Widespread Weakness, Dollar Leads, Bonds Bounce, ETFs Showing Relative Strength by Holding Up Better (Premium)
Cracks in the stock market began to appear in the second half of 2021 and spread to large-caps in early 2022. Defensive groups within the stock market were holding up, but got hit hard in June. Industrial metals and agricultural commodities were holding
Market and ETF Report – A Sea of Red, Energy ETFs Tests Support, Healthcare/Biotech Show Relative Strength (Premium)
My screen for today’s price action is a sea of red right now. Stock futures are modestly lower, energy futures are lower, gold is slightly lower, industrial metals are sharply lower and agricultural commodities are sharply lower. The US Dollar Index is the only thing higher and it is trading at a new high