Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium)

Market
Regime
ETF Trend Signals
Premium
Page

Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or even flat flags. Instead of breaking to the upside, they broke to the downside and reversed their short-term uptrends. 2022 was year of the big swing and the whipsaw. I cannot help but wonder if 2023 will continue as such for a few months. Elsewhere, the 10-yr Treasury Yield broke out, the Dollar is strong and oil cannot break resistance. Stock-based ETFs are in pullback mode here in February. Outside of stocks, we are seeing some strength in copper and soybeans.

Next Report will be posted on Friday, February 24th

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • SPY Breaks Short-term Support within Rising Wedge
  • Yield Spreads Tick Up as Stocks Falter
  • Junk Bond ETF Breaks Wedge Line with Sharp Decline
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Extends Lower after Support Break
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Breaks December High
  • Dollar Challenges January High as Yields Rise
  • Gold Hits 33% Retracement Level
  • USO Reverses Short-term Upswing within Downtrend

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • Leading ETFs Pull Back (KIE, PPA, PHO, XES, ITB)
  • QQQ Breaks Support and Leads with Second 90% Down Day
  • IWM Reverses Upswing within Rising Channel
  • Four Key Offensive Sectors Break Short-term Support (XLK, XLY, XLI, XLF)
  • Software and Semis Break Short-term Support (plus IGV, SOXX, DRIV, SKYY, FDN)
  • Cybersecurity Holds Up Short-term (but CIBR is not an island)
  • Housing and Retail Lead the Market Lower (ITB, XRT)
  • Regional Bank ETF Reverses Upswing within Descending Triangle (KRE)
  • Biotech ETFs Fall with the Rest of the Market (IBB, XBI)
  • Energy SPDR Tests Support as MLP ETF Breaks Support (XLE, AMLP)
  • Clean Energy and Telemedicine Lead Lower in 2023 (ICLN, EDOC)
  • Defensive ETFs Still in Pullback Mode (SPLV, XLP, PBJ, XLV, XLU)
  • Copper and Base Metals Break Out (CPER, DBB, COPX)
  • Soybeans Extend on Breakout as Corn Consolidates within Uptrend (SOYB, CORN)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium)

By

Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium)

By

The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium)

By

The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium)

By

Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)

By

The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)

By

This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)

By

The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium)

By

The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium)

By

Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over

Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

Scroll to Top