Trend/Signal Summary
- SPY and QQQ recorded new highs this week, but IWM fell just short.
- All three are in uptrends, but looking extended after big runs.
- S&P 500 5-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA on May 29th (uptrend).
- S&P 500 Trend Model turned bullish on July 20th and remains bullish.
- S&P 500 Thrust Model turned bullish on April 29th and remains bullish.
- SPX %Above 50-day shows less participation from January to February.
- All 11 sector SPDRs are in uptrends (bullish StochClose signals).
- The Fed Balance sheet expanded by $115 billion and hit a new high.
- Yield spreads hit new lows as the 10-yr Treasury yield surged in 2021.
Stocks and Commodities Lead
SPY and QQQ Hit New Highs as IWM Falls Short
Trend and Thrust Breadth Models
Trend Models
Thrust Models
You can learn more about the methodology and
historical performance for these breadth models in this article.
Sector SPDRs and StochClose Signals
I am finished with backtesting various sector breadth models and the article will be completed early next week. Results show that signals based on breadth models do not add any tangible value for trading or investing in the sector SPDRs. It is better to simply take the StochClose signals. All eleven sector SPDRs are in uptrends with bullish StochClose signals. The green shading on the chart shows XLK, XLY and XLV with bullish StochClose signals in April. These are the three biggest sectors and they currently account for 54% of the S&P 500. The column on the far right shows that XLE, XLU and XLRE are the are the furthest from 52-week highs (red shading).
SPX Sector Breadth Model
Sector Breadth Model charts can be found on the Art’s Charts ChartList.
Yield Spreads and Fed Balance Sheet
