ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Big Gains Since November, Big Months for Finance and Energy, A Few Corrections Underway

Making money in the stock market has been pretty easy since November. And not just stocks. Oil, base metals, agriculture and silver are also up. Gold, the Dollar and bonds are down as money moved out of stock-alternatives and into riskier assets. As shown below, dozens of ETFs are up more than 40% since early November and many are up more than 20%. These are outrageous gains that make trading seem easy. Even though the bulls rule the roost right now, this scenario will not last forever and there will be corrective periods along the way. Corrections represent the pause that refreshes, but we must still mentally prepare for such instances. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

49 of the 119 ETFs in the Core List are up more than 40% over the last 73 days, since October 30th. The table below is available under the ETF Ranking Table. It shows the percentage change for 73 days and seven other periods from 1 day to 255 days (about one year). Click the column headings to sort and the link to see a chart with the 73-day ROC.

The next table shows the weakest ETFs over the last twenty days. Notice that some of the clean energy ETFs are showing signs of a corrective period (down over the last 20 days).

Strong Uptrend, Very Extended

SOXX, SKYY, IPAY, FINX, REMX

Early-Mid January Flag Breakout, Big Move to New High

XLC, IGV

Modest Zigzag Higher Since November

RSP, SPY, QQQ, XLK, HYG

Steep Zigzag Higher Since November, Stalling Since 9-Feb

MDY, IJR, IWM, XLY

Early February Flag Breakout, Strong Follow Through

XLF, KRE, DBE, XLE, XES, XOP, FCG, DBB, DBA

You can learn more about ATR Trailing stops in this post,
which includes a video and charting option for everyone.

Medium-term Consolidation, mid Jan Breakout, New High

ITB

Early February Flag/Pennant Breakout, Modest Follow Thru

XLB, AMLP, XME

Multi-week Consolidation within Strong Uptrend

HACK, PBW, TAN, IHF

Multi-day Pullback within Strong Uptrend

XBI, IBB

You can learn more about ATR Trailing stops in this post,
which includes a video and charting option for everyone.

Slow and Steady Uptrend

XLV, IHI, PHO

Parabolic Advance, Sharp Decline, Still in Uptrend

XRT, MJ

Medium-term Consolidation within Uptrend

XLI, XLP

Early December Breakout, Choppy Follow Through

SLV

Slow Uptrend, Below November High, Wedge Breakout

XLU, REZ

ETFs from here are lagging over the last few months or in downtrends. Note the gold and Treasury bonds are the weakest of all right now.

Other ETFs and Groups:

Breakout from Long Consolidation: XLRE

Lagging for Months, Just above 200-day: XLU

Downtrend and/or Lagging since August: TLT, AGG, LQD, GLD, GDX

Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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