There were dozens of ETFs with short-term oversold conditions and short-term corrective patterns working at the end of January. With a bounce the last two weeks, we now have a slew of ETFs hitting new highs again and 27 ETFs in the Core list (119) with double digit gains here in February. Momentum is just the gift that keeps on giving.
The performance since November is extraordinary. Here are some metrics since November 1st (69 days): 25 ETFs are up more than 50%, 61 are up more than 30% and 86 are up more than 20%. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up 19.46%, QQQ is up 23.5% and IWM is up 48.2%. The Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) is up more than 200% and actually outperforming the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which is up just 192%. YOLO, PBW, REMX and PRNT are up more than 100%.
And here are the ETFs showing losses since November 1st (69 days): Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Gold SPDR (GLD), 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), Yen ETF (FXY)
The long-term trends are up for pretty much everything. In fact, only ten ETFs in the core list show bearish StockClose signals. The Yen ETF (FXY) and the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) were the most recent to trigger with bearish signals five and six days ago, respectively. Elsewhere, the bond-related ETFs, precious metals related ETFs and the Dollar are in downtrends.
With oversold conditions in late January and surges here in February, most ETFs are back in the trend monitoring phase. New highs are bullish and reaffirm the existing uptrends, but new highs are not considered tradable setups. In contrast, new highs are fine for trend-following and momentum strategies. For traders focused on mean-reversion setups and playable pullbacks, the trend monitoring phase is when we consider profit targets, trailing stops and/or exit strategies.
The January highs and the late January lows become bench mark levels to watch going forward. ETFs that exceeded their January highs this month continue to show leadership. ETFs that did not show some short-term relative weakness. Most ETFs also established short-term lows in late January and I will be watching these going forward. ETFs that should break these lows would show relative and absolute weakness. ETFs that hold would show relative strength.
Flying High, Really High
MJ, REMX
Momentum Leader Since March and November
SOXX, PBW, TAN, XBI
You can learn more about ATR Trailing stops in this post,
which includes a video and charting option for everyone.
Sharp Advance since November Breakout
SKYY, HACK
Steep Zigzag Higher Since November Breakout
MDY, IJR, IWM, QQQ, IBB, DBA
Modest Zigzag Higher Since November Breakout
RSP, SPY, XLK, TIP, HYG
Flag Breakouts in early January, Extension to New Highs
IGV, FDN
Short-term Support Break, Oversold Bounce to New Highs
IPAY, FINX
Mid January Breakout, New High this Week
ITB
Sharp Advance, Oversold/Flag, Breakout, Follow Through
XLF, KRE, XAR
You can learn more about ATR Trailing stops in this post,
which includes a video and charting option for everyone.
Oversold Bounce, Flag Breakout, Strong Follow Through
DBE, XLE, XES, XOP, DBB
Oversold Bounce and/or Flag Breakout, Weak Follow Thru
XLB, AMLP, XME
Slow and Stable Uptrend
XLV, IHI, IHF, PHO
Early December Breakout, Choppy Follow Through
SLV
ETFs from here are lagging over the last few months or in downtrends. Note the gold and Treasury bonds are the weakest of all right now.
Slow Uptrend, Below November High, Wedge Breakout
XLU, REZ
Other ETFs and Groups:
Breakout from Long Consolidation, but still Lagging: XLRE
Lagging the last Few Months: XLI, XLP, KIE
Downtrend or Nowhere for 5+ Months: TLT, AGG, LQD, UUP, GLD, GDX