Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)

Market Regime
ETF Trend Signals

Check out the Premium Page (click here) for articles and videos covering trading strategies, seasonality, exits, patterns and more.

Next Week's Publishing Schedule

Tuesday, 22 March: Market/ETF Commentary

Thursday, 24 March: Trend Composite Strategy (part 6): Rebalancing and Stops

Saturday, 26 March: Weekend Video

Note that the Weekend video moves to Wednesdays in April.

This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section starts with the Trend Composite Signal and Ranking Table. We highlight the leading ETFs, ETFs with new trend signals and more. Analysis then turns to the charts for emerging trends and setups.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bearish
  • Yield Spreads Narrow with Sharp Move, but Remain Elevated
  • Fed Balance Sheet Hits New High
  • NDX Gets Two One-day Breadth Thrusts – Others Do Not
  • %Above 200-day SMA Indicators Gyrate Around 40%
  • SPY Breaks Early March High with Biggest 4-day Surge since Nov-2020
  • QQQ Follows SPY
  • Small-caps and Mid-caps Lag (still a large-cap world)
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Exceeds 2% as TLT Breaks 2021 Lows
  • Gold and Oil Retrace with Hard Throwback
  • Dollar Edges Lower after New High

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • Early Bird or Second Mouse?
  • New Uptrend and Breakout in XLV
  • Infrastructure and Agribusiness ETFs have Leading Uptrends (IFRA, MOO)
  • Energy ETFs get Short Pullbacks after New Highs (XES, XLE)
  • DB Agriculture ETF Forms Small Bull Wedge (DBA – Plus CANE)
  • DB Base Metal ETF Gets Hard Pullback after New High (DBB)
  • Copper and Copper Miners ETFs Maintain Choppy Uptrends (CPER, COPX)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETFs with Pullbacks after Breakouts (ITA, PPA, XAR)
  • Banks and Residential REIT ETFs Maintain Choppy Uptrends (KRE, KBE, REZ)
  • XLB Gets Wedge Breakout within Choppy Uptrend (plus RTM)
  • Clean Energy ETFs Maintain Upswings within Corrections (PBW, ACES, ICLN)
  • Cybersecurity Leads Tech with Flag Breakout (CIBR)
  • Tech, Semis and Networking Form Big Wedges (XLK, SOXX, IGN)
  • Small Growth and EW C. Discreti go from 52w Lows to 10% Surges (IWO, RCD)
  • Tech ETFs with 52-wk Lows and 3x ATR surges (SKYY, FINX, FDN, IPAY, IGV)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives

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Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)

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It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)

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The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered.

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and the S&P 500 SPDR is in a downtrend since the January breakdown. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) held up a little better than SPY in January-February, but remains short of a resistance breakout that would negate the January breakdown. In short, the trends

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)

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Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)

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The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs

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Today’s article is the fourth installment in the Trend Composite series. We started with an introduction to the Trend Composite, tested uptrend/downtrend signals and then moved to portfolio level testing using StochClose as the tiebreak. Today we focus more on StochClose rank by using

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 4) – Volatility-Adjusted Performance, Portfolios based on Trend and Price Performance, Bear Market ETFs Read More »

Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish this week as the S&P 500 led the broad market lower. New lows expanded and some 60% of stocks in the S&P 1500 are below their 200-day SMAs. Throw in widening yield spreads and the Market Regime is clearly

Weekend Video – 5/200 Cross Flips CBM, Breadth Deteriorates Further, Spreads Widen, Commodities Lead, Techs Get Slammed (Premium) Read More »

Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium)

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A charting strategy is essential because it increases objectivity and improves the odds of success. A basic chart strategy is similar to basic black jack strategy. In his classic book, Beat the Dealer, Edward Thorp, lays out a basic black jack strategy with a set of rules to improve the odds. Once players master basic strategy, they can move on to card counting and such to further improve performance.

Chart Strategy – Timeframes, Trend Composite, Momentum Composite, StochRSI, Setups and Signals (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Flips, Commodity Related ETFs Lead, Finance and Staples Related ETFs Hold Up, Tech Turns Volatile (Premium)

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The stock market is as divided as ever with the pockets of weakness at the risk-on end. Risk-off ETFs and commodity-related ETFs are performing the best right now. Finance-related ETFs are also holding their own as the 10-yr Treasury Yield exceeds 2%. There are some

Mkt/ETF Commentary – CBM Flips, Commodity Related ETFs Lead, Finance and Staples Related ETFs Hold Up, Tech Turns Volatile (Premium) Read More »

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 3) – Portfolio Level Testing, StochClose Ranking, Market Regime Filter, Optimizing Number of Positions

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Today’s article is the third installment of the Trend Composite series, which is working towards a trend-momentum strategy for trading ETFs. Today we will move from “All Signals” testing to portfolio level testing. We will first use uptrend/downtrend signals

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 3) – Portfolio Level Testing, StochClose Ranking, Market Regime Filter, Optimizing Number of Positions Read More »

Weekend Video – Big Pockets of Weakness, Yield Spreads Remain Elevated, Commodity ETFs are Leading (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Even so, some 55% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day SMAs and fewer than 40% of mid-caps and small-caps are above their 200-day SMAs. There are more long-term downtrends than

Weekend Video – Big Pockets of Weakness, Yield Spreads Remain Elevated, Commodity ETFs are Leading (Premium) Read More »

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