Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Today’s report is a motley mix of ETFs. Only two are in actual uptrends (biotech and the Dollar). The Trend Composites for the clean energy ETFs turned negative on Wednesday so these are clearly out of the picture now. While many ETFs broke their summer lows in September and broke their late September lows in October, some held above both of these lows
The macro environment continues to dominate as stocks moved opposite the Dollar and Treasury bonds. The Dollar Bullish ETF and 10-yr Treasury Yield turned back up the last four days and the S&P 500 fell sharply. The long-term trend for all three
Stocks did the old pop and drop with the market surging Monday-Tuesday last week and then falling the next four days. Many ETFs moved to new lows, but some managed to hold above last week’s lows. Several tech and bond related ETFs hit fresh 52-week lows, which
The pickings are extremely thin in the markets because the vast majority of groups are in downtrends. TrendInvestorPro tracks trend signals in 274 ETFs. This list include 170 stock-based ETFs, 18 fixed income ETFs
The Pickings are Slim, but one Metal Stands Out (Free) Read More »
Stocks got a big oversold bounce the first two days of October, but I am treating it as a counter-trend move within a bigger downtrend and bear market. Adding fuel for the bulls, the Dollar
Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the
The Dollar finally took a breather from its rapid ascent with a four day pullback and we also saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield fall from around 4% to 3.6%. The Dollar represents the risk-off trade so the pullback facilitated a bounce in
Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of
Bear Markets and the 20% Threshold (Free) Read More »
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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives
The bears remain in control of the stock market and they are expanding their territory with breakdowns in energy, a clean energy and biotech. Stock-based ETFs are still part of the market and this became abundantly clear as all stock based ETFs in the ETF Master List fell over the last
Despite the bear market environment, a handful of stock-based ETFs were showing leadership with bullish Trend Composite signals. Representatives from dirty energy (XLE), clean energy (TAN) and utilities (XLU) were covered over
Correlations Rise as Bear Extends its Grip (Free) Read More »
The Fed has come and gone, and the ugliness in the markets remains. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as SPY lost 1.79%. Bonds bounced with a sequence of sell-the-rumor (rate hike) and buy-the-news (actual hike). Sell short on the prospect of rate hikes and cover when the big
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks
Volatility remains above average in the markets and now we have a Fed meeting to contend with. There is only one thing to do when the Fed meets: turn off your news feed and wait a few days for the dust to settle. Knee jerk reactions are
The broad market environment remains bearish, but one group stood out in early August and continues to stand out. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) was featured on August 1st as the Trend Composite turned bullish and clean energy
Coming Up Aces in Clean Energy (Free) Read More »
This is one tough market, and I am not just talking about stocks. Non-stock alternatives usually emerge during bear markets, but we are seeing weakness in oil, copper, gold and “safe-haven” Treasury
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are
Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only
It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and
Energy-based ETFs Hold Up Despite Weakness in Stocks and Oil (Free) Read More »
