Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the
Will the Generals follow the Troops? (Free) Read More »
Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme
The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to
The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to
Sometimes markets trend, sometimes they oscillate and sometimes they simply frustrate. I would venture to guess that trading since 2022 falls into the frustration basket. Trend following and momentum strategies are suffering because big moves
A Risk-off Alternative Turns Up as Stocks Falter (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right
Recent events in the banking world jolted stocks. This jolt was enough to push the Composite Breadth Model into negative territory and widen yield spreads. The Regional Bank
Chartists considering a trend-following strategy can use the Trend Composite to identify trend signals and then turn to the ATR Trailing Stop for an exit strategy. A bearish Trend Composite signal could also be used as an exit strategy, but these signals
Trend Signals and Trailing Stops Examples using XLF and SOXX (Free) Read More »
Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the
This report is an update for the Trend Composite and StochClose Rank Strategy that trades ETFs in the All-Weather List during bull and bear markets. Examining recent performance and signals can
Stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading at or near new highs lead with clear uptrends. These are the names you’d want on your ChartLists or portfolio. You can find leaders by checking the list of
Find the Strongest Price Charts with the StochClose Rank (Free) Read More »
Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke
February has been a tough month for stocks and the vast majority of ETFs. The S&P 500 peaked on February 2nd and is down around 4.6% the last 16 days. All sector SPDRs are down over this period with
The stock market has been a tough place for trend-following since January 2022, which is when the S&P 500 first triggered a bearish trend signal. The bearish signal in question is the humble
Should we Keep Paying Attention to Trend Signals after Whipsaws? (Free) Read More »
Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or
Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is a period of big swings and above average volatility. There were six swings of at least 10% from late January to early February 2023. Looking at other 12-14 month periods, this
Year of the Big Swing and Month of the Small Flag (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
