Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is a period of big swings and above average volatility. There were six swings of at least 10% from late January to early February 2023. Looking at other 12-14 month periods, this
Year of the Big Swing and Month of the Small Flag (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the
The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early
Stocks went on a tear from late December to early February with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing some 11% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with
Pullbacks within Uptrends Create Opportunities (Free) Read More »
The report explains the All Weather ETF strategy using the Trend Composite to find uptrends and StochClose to rank performance. Using the Composite Breadth Model to time the stock market, this strategy focuses on stock-based ETFs during bull markets and non-stock ETFs during bear markets. These stock alternatives extend to commodity ETFs, currency ETFs and bond ETFs. This report includes plenty of chart examples and performance metrics.
ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs Read More »
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat
High-beta and risk-on ETFs are leading the market here in 2023 with big surges the last five weeks. Many triggered bullish trend signals, but they are also short-term overbought and ripe for a rest. Conversely, low-beta
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence
Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones
The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and
SPY Has a Clear Level to Beat (Free) Read More »
The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers.
Relative Seasonality and A Monthly Equity Curve (Free) Read More »
This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move
The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment
Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half, but kept on throwing
Trade Like Trevor (Free) Read More »
Today’s report will dive into monthly seasonal patterns using benchmark metrics and equity curves. The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias.
The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the breadth indicators show a split among stocks with roughly half above their 200-day SMAs and half below. The Fed balance
