Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – Large-cap Techs Lift S&P 500, Small-caps Weigh on Breadth, Defensive Groups in Downswings (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to the rescue with a big balance sheet boost, but yield spreads remain elevated and show stress in the credit market. Overall, it is a mixed picture. There are rotations within the market and the price swings are big, both ways. Today’s video will look at the current leaders that are in upswings and keep an eye on the current laggards, which are in downswings.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model Improves, but Remains Bearish
  • SPX: 5-day Crosses Above 200-day SMA
  • Yield Spreads Remain Elevated and Show Stress
  • Fed Comes to the Rescue with Big Balance Sheet Expansion
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Stalls at Resistance (TLT)
  • Dollar Reverses Short-term Upswing (UUP)
  • Precious Metals Surge and Turn Volatile (GLD, SLV, PLTM)
  • Gold Miners ETF Extends and Turns Volatile (GDX, SIL)
  • Oil Breaks Support and Becomes Oversold (USO)

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • A Market of Big Swings and Rotations
  • QQQ Continues to Lead with a Breakout
  • Tech and Comm Services Lead, while Defensive Sectors Hold Up
  • Semis Lead Tech-Based ETFs (SOXX, IGV, CIBR)
  • Video Games eSports ETF Gets Breakout (ESPO)
  • Global Auto ETF Breaks out of Flag after Throwback (CARZ)
  • Home Construction ETF Still Correcting (ITB)
  • Defense and Water ETFs Test Support (PPA, PHO, CGW)
  • Utilities SPDR Gets Cold Feet on Breakout (XLU, XLP, XLV)
  • Biotech SPDR Still on the Radar (IBB, XBI)
  • Russell 2000 Growth ETF Swings within Big Bearish Pattern (IWO)
  • Energy SPDR Forges an Island Reversal (XLE)
  • Retail SPDR Remains in Sharp Downswing (XRT)
  • Base Metals and Copper Correct After Big Moves (DBB, CPER)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market and ETF Report – Big Swings and Rotations within the Market, Big Tech Leads, Defensives Lag with Downswings (Premium)

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The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to

Market and ETF Report – Big Swings and Rotations within the Market, Big Tech Leads, Defensives Lag with Downswings (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday, yield spreads widened significantly over the past week and SPY broke wedge support. Risk for stocks and stock-based ETFs is above average right

Market/ETF Video – CBM Turns Negative, Yields Spreads Widen, Bonds Rise as Safe Haven Trade, Tech ETFs Show Relative Strength, but… (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium)

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Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on

Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium)

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The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium)

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Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke

Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium)

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Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium)

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The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium) Read More »

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