Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – SPY Tests Breakout, TLT Firms After Testimony, Tech ETFs in Pullback Mode, Small-caps and Retail Lagging (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday as the market reacted to testimony from Fed Chairman Powell. The Dollar surged and gold fell, but the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF actually advanced on the day. Based on Powell’s testimony, one would have expected TLT to fall sharply. The short-term breakout in SPY is getting a test and TLT continues to firm. An upside breakout in TLT could be positive for stocks because these two are mostly positively correlated. An upside breakout in TLT would imply a short-term reversal in the 10-yr Treasury Yield and falling yields could be positive for high beta stocks. TLT has yet to break out and many tech ETFs remain in pullback mode. Today’s video will highlight the patterns and resistance levels to watch for these pullbacks.

Broad Market Analysis

  • Composite Breadth Model is Bullish
  • SPY Tests 200-day and Wedge Support
  • Short-term Breakout in SPY Gets a Test
  • Yield Spreads Remain Narrow Overall
  • 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF Firms, Despite Fed Testimony (TLT, $TNX)
  • Dollar Breaks Out of Bull Flag
  • Gold and Platinum Plunge as Dollar Surges
  • USO Remains Range Bound with Clear Resistance Level

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • IWM Fails to Hold Short-term Breakout as Small-caps Lag
  • QQQ Falls Back to Breakout Zone
  • Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Finance in ST Downtrends (XLK, XLY, XLF)
  • Aerospace & Defense and Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Hold Up (PPA, XES)
  • Insurance and Water Correct as Market Weakens (KIE, PHO)
  • High-Beta ETFs in Short-term Downtrends (ARKK)
  • Semiconductor and Cybersecruity Form Triangles after Big Surges (SOXX, CIBR)
  • Software and Cloud Computing Correct with Falling Flags (IGV, SKYY)
  • Home Construction and Energy Fall back after Short-term Breakouts (ITB, XLE)
  • Retail and Regional Banks Fail to Break Out and Lag (XRT, KRE)
  • Failed Breakouts in Copper and Agribusiness (COPX, MOO)
  • Airline and Solar Hold Breakouts (JETS, TAN)
  • Clean Energy and Biotech SPDR Set Up with Pullbacks (PBW, XBI)
  • Copper and Base Metals Extend Pullback (CPER, DBB)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium)

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The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) fell back to its 200-day SMA in February and then surged with a sharp advance the last few days. This advance triggered breakouts in several ETFs that were featured in last week’s report and video. Today’s report will update these charts and set the

Market and ETF Report – SPY Surges off 200-day, Short-term Breakouts Trigger, Small-caps, Retail and Region Banks Lag (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium)

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Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke

Market/ETF Video – Defining the Uptrend in SPY, TLT Firms as Dollar Gets Extended, Watching February Pullbacks in Several ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or

Market/ETF Video – Evidence is Bullish, but SPY Reverses Upswing within Wedge, Big Sectors and Tech ETFs Follow Suit (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium)

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Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as

Market and ETF Report – Stocks Move into Pullback Mode, Defensive ETFs Form Corrective Pattern, Copper Bounces (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium)

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The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early

Market and ETF Report – Pullbacks Materialize for Market Leaders, Defensive ETFs Remain with Corrective Patterns (Premium) Read More »

ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs

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The report explains the All Weather ETF strategy using the Trend Composite to find uptrends and StochClose to rank performance. Using the Composite Breadth Model to time the stock market, this strategy focuses on stock-based ETFs during bull markets and non-stock ETFs during bear markets. These stock alternatives extend to commodity ETFs, currency ETFs and bond ETFs. This report includes plenty of chart examples and performance metrics.

ETF-Strategy: Trend & StochClose Strategy and Signal Table for All Weather ETFs Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat

Market/ETF Video – Big Surge is Bullish, But Many ETFs are Overbought, Defensive ETFs with Bullish Setups, 10-yr Yield Breaks Out (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium)

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Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones

Market and ETF Report – SPY, QQQ and Oil Hit Resistance, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Defensive ETFs with Pullback Setups (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge

Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium) Read More »

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