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Market/ETF Video – CBM Moves to -1, Big Falling Wedge vs Small Rising Wedge, Defensive ETFs Correct in 2023 (Premium)

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge breakout in SPY. Failure to push higher could lead to a short-term reversal and a continuation of the bear market. See the Market Regime page for updated charts and analysis. Elsewhere, I updated the status for two mean-reversion signals (XLP, SPLV). The defensive ETFs that led in 2022 are lagging in 2023, but their recent declines look like pullbacks after a sharp advance.

Broad Market Notes

  • CBM Improves, but Remains Negative
  • Large-caps and Mid-caps Lead
  • The Key Level for the Falling Wedge
  • Watching the Short-term Rising Wedge
  • SPX %Above 20-day Breaks 60%
  • Yield Spreads in Downtrend (Narrowing)
  • QQQ Bounces within Downtrend
  • IWM Outperforms and Challenges Nov-Dec High
  • Short-term Support to Watch for 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Corrects after New High
  • Dollar Accelerates Lower as Gold Accelerates Higher
  • US Oil Fund Challenges Resistance 

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • RSI(2) Crosses above 70 for XLP (mean-reversion follow up SPLV)
  • Tech and Staples Tell the Story in January
  • 2023 Leaders were Laggards in 2022 (defense vs offense)
  • Lagging Defensive ETFs Have Bullish Setups (SPLV, XLP, XLU, PHO, KIE)
  • Healthcare SPDR Forms Wedge Correction (XLV)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETF Consolidates after Surge (PPA)
  • QQQ and XLK are Still in Long-term Downtrends
  • Semiconductor ETF Breaks December High (SOXX)
  • Fragile Wedge Breakout within Downtrend for the Cybersecurity (CIBR)
  • Software ETF Challenges December High (IGV)
  • Biotech ETF Extends on Wedge Breakout (IBB,  plus XBI)
  • Home Construction ETF Continues to Lead (ITB)
  • Energy SPDR Holds Triangle Breakout (XLE)
  • XOP and FCG Break Out of Wedges (plus AMLP)
  • Silver Stalls After Big Surge (SLV)
  • Platinum ETF Forms Bull Flag (PLTM)
  • Base Metals are Strong, but Extended (DBB, plus CPER)
  • Palladium ETF Firms within Downtrend (PALL)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium)

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This is a short update covering the S&P 500 SPDR, a bearish breadth signal and two ETFs. Stocks were hit pretty hard on Wednesday with all sectors moving lower. In an interesting twist, the low volatility sectors, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples

Market/ETF Report – Broad Selling, SPY Reverses Near 200-day, XLK with Outside Day at Key Retracement (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move

Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium)

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Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium)

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Stocks, bonds, the Euro and metals started the year with a bang. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 2.3% on Friday and is up 1.42% year-to-date. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF is outperforming SPY with a 6.2% advance and the DB Base Metals ETF surged over

Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – SPY Remains Bearish, Healthcare ETFs Outperforming, Energy ETFs Turn Mixed (Premium)

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We start the New Year with a negative Composite Breadth Model and bear market environment. 2022 was the year of the whipsaw and largely a year to forget. Nobody knows that 2023 will bring, but the bear market environment indicate that risk remains above average for

Market and ETF Report – SPY Remains Bearish, Healthcare ETFs Outperforming, Energy ETFs Turn Mixed (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday and the Market Regime is back to bearish. 2022 was year of the whipsaw for the CBM, but whipsaw periods are normal for trend following models and part of the overall process. AAA spreads

Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – ETFs to Watch for Clues on the Broader Market, Intermarket Relations at Work Now (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group

Market and ETF Report – ETFs to Watch for Clues on the Broader Market, Intermarket Relations at Work Now (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium)

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Despite some volatility around the CPI report, there is no real change in the market situation. The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The intermarket relationships since

Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium) Read More »

The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 11) – Performance Update,  A Tough 2022, New Positions in December

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Today’s report will update the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy that trades the All Weather ETFs. 2022 has been a rough year and there are still two weeks left. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on November 30th and this means stock-based ETFs became eligible for the strategy.

The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 11) – Performance Update,  A Tough 2022, New Positions in December Read More »

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