Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. It all started with a Zweig Breadth Thrust on November 3rd and the broad advance extended into early December. The 5-day SMA for the Composite Breadth Model (CBM) hit +1 on December 7th. The CBM is a trend-following
SPY and QQQ are in long-term uptrends as both recorded 52-week highs over the last few weeks. Small-caps are in long-term trading ranges, but short-term uptrends as IWM and IJR surged the last six weeks. Overall, stocks are short-term
making big gains (11-15%). Almost all stock-based ETFs are up over this five week period with many up more than 10%. Energy-related ETFs are down, as are ETFs related to some commodities
There is no change in the broad market situation. QQQ is leading because it recorded a 52-week high in November. SPY is not far behind, but it has yet to exceed its July highs. Both are short-term overbought after sharp advances from late October to late November.
The broader market remains mixed. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is performing well because it is weighted by market cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks account for a third of the ETF. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is performing well because tech stocks are leading the market and the tech sector
Today’s report will put the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators for the various indexes to the test. My default breadth index is the S&P 1500 because it covers all bases and represents a broad swath of the US stock market. We can also generate ZBT signals using
StockCharts users can chart the Zweig Breadth Thrust for the S&P 1500 or any other index that has Advance-Decline Percent data. All we have to do its convert the Zweig Breadth Thrust levels to their equivalents using Advance-Decline Percent.
Charting the S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust using Advance-Decline Percent (Free) Read More »
Breadth indicators are also referred to as market internals. As the “vital signs” for an index or sector, breadth indicators reflect aggregate performance for the individual components. As such, breadth indicators can provide leading signals by strengthening before a bottom or weakening ahead of a top. After all, the whole is only as good as the sum of the parts
Breadth Charts and ChartList – Get an Edge with Inside Information Read More »
Dividends may seem like harmless add-ons when it comes to price data, but they can have big effects over time. The biggest problem is that dividend adjustments create artificial prices that do not reflect reality at the time of the actual trade. There are also short-term problems as moving average values, price highs and price lows also shift after an adjustment.
Ordinary Dividends: To Adjust or Not to Adjust Read More »
There are two things to consider for ETF liquidity. First, there is the actual trading volume for the ETF. Second, there is the trading volume for the holdings in the ETF. Hat-tip to Joe H. for enlightening me on this aspect. An ETF with relatively low trading volume can
While there are too many influences to list in one post, this commentary features a dozen books that helped me over the years. These books cover technical analysis, trend-momentum strategies, insights from great traders and the mindset required to stay in the game.
Stocks surged the last three weeks and participation broadened, to some degree. Analysts are pointing out the Zweig Breadth Thrust and the massively lopsided Advance-Decline Ratio this week. While there is no denying the powerful upside move since late October, keep in mind that only half of the stocks in the S&P 1500
The weight of the evidence for stocks is mixed. Large-caps and large-cap techs are holding up well, but small-caps and mid-caps remain under pressure. Large-caps account for the majority of the stock market when measuring by market cap.
Today’s report features the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which was developed by the late, and great, Marty Zweig. We will show how it works and look at some recent signals. Despite a long history, the indicator is missing something and we will propose a modern day alternative.
Today’s report features the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which was developed by the late, and great, Marty Zweig. We will show how it works and look at some recent signals. Despite a long history, the indicator is missing something and we will propose a modern day alternative.
A Zweig Breadth Thrust Triggers, but the Indicator is Missing Something (Part 1 – Free) Read More »
Stocks surged from October 30 to November 3rd (last week) and then diverged the last three days. SPY and QQQ edged higher, while mid-caps (MDY) and small-caps (IWM) fell. Over the last three days, SPY is up .59% and QQQ is up 1.42%. In contrast, MDY is down 1.71% and IWM is down 2.65%. This is the story of 2023
Stocks surged last week, but we have yet to see breakouts in SPY and QQQ. These two surged within their falling channel patterns. Last week’s bounces were expected because stocks were oversold, the turn of the month shows a bullish bias and November is seasonally strong. These arguments were laid out last
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look
The S&P 500 is battling the 200-day SMA with four crosses over the last eleven days. We are also seeing a rise in volatility as this market benchmark plunged 5.86% in nine days (18-27 October) and then surged 5.85% the last five days. With such conditions, it is a good time to step back and look for ways to filter the noise.
SPY and QQQ are getting oversold bounces within larger downtrends. Short-term, a number of factors came together for this bounce. First, the turn-of-the-month shows a bullish bias, especially the October-November turn. Second, monthly seasonal
