Understanding Bear Markets and Setting Expectations (Premium)
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Market/ETF Video – Bonds Plunge with Outsized Move, Oil and Metals Weak on Demand Destruction, Dollar Goes Parabolic, Wheat and Coffee Hold Up (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives
Market and ETF Report – Bear Expands Territory, Energy and Clean Energy Succumb, Ag Hit, Wheat and Palladium Hold Out (Premium)
The bears remain in control of the stock market and they are expanding their territory with breakdowns in energy, a clean energy and biotech. Stock-based ETFs are still part of the market and this became abundantly clear as all stock based ETFs in the ETF Master List fell over the last
Correlations Rise as Bear Extends its Grip (Free)
Despite the bear market environment, a handful of stock-based ETFs were showing leadership with bullish Trend Composite signals. Representatives from dirty energy (XLE), clean energy (TAN) and utilities (XLU) were covered over
Correlations Rise as Bear Extends its Grip (Free) Read More »
Composite Breadth Model Signals, Comparing to Buy-Hold and 5/200 Cross and Adding Beta (Premium)
This report will update the Composite Breadth Model signals and compare signals to the 5/200 cross for the S&P 500. The CBM outperforms this cross and does so with few positions (whipsaws). The CBM also performs in
Market and ETF Report – Broad Market Weighs, Uranium Pulls Back, Copper Firms, Palladium Grinds Higher and Silver Shines (Premium)
The Fed has come and gone, and the ugliness in the markets remains. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as SPY lost 1.79%. Bonds bounced with a sequence of sell-the-rumor (rate hike) and buy-the-news (actual hike). Sell short on the prospect of rate hikes and cover when the big
Market/ETF Video – Most Stocks and ETFs in Downtrends, Yield Spreads Widen, Dirty and Clean Energy Lead, Agriculture Holds Up Well (Premium)
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and the yields spreads are on the rise, especially junk spreads. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks
Market and ETF Report – Downtrends Dominate, Tech Leads Lower, Defensives not Immune, Clean Energy Holds Up (Premium)
Volatility remains above average in the markets and now we have a Fed meeting to contend with. There is only one thing to do when the Fed meets: turn off your news feed and wait a few days for the dust to settle. Knee jerk reactions are
Coming Up Aces in Clean Energy (Free)
The broad market environment remains bearish, but one group stood out in early August and continues to stand out. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) was featured on August 1st as the Trend Composite turned bullish and clean energy
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Market and ETF Report – Stocks and Industrial Commodities Weaken, Uranium and Grains Hold Up (Premium)
This is one tough market, and I am not just talking about stocks. Non-stock alternatives usually emerge during bear markets, but we are seeing weakness in oil, copper, gold and “safe-haven” Treasury
Market/ETF Video – Volatility Remains High, Big Sectors Fail in Unison, Defensive Groups not Immune, Agriculture ETFs Hold Up (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and volatility is above average. Throw in elevated yield spreads and a hawkish Fed, and you have a bearish Market Regime for stocks. Bear markets are
Market and ETF Report – Short-term Surges within Bigger Downtrends, Energy ETFs Hold Up, Clean Energy and Biotech Show Leadership (Premium)
Stocks surged the last four days with another big move. It seems that there is no such thing as “average” anymore as we are seeing big moves both up and down. The chart below shows SPY with the 5% zigzag in red. This red line only
Energy-based ETFs Hold Up Despite Weakness in Stocks and Oil (Free)
It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and
Energy-based ETFs Hold Up Despite Weakness in Stocks and Oil (Free) Read More »
Market and ETF Report – Oversold Bounces with and without the Force, Energy ETF Pullback, Palladium ETF Hits Moment of Truth (Premium)
After becoming very oversold on Tuesday, stocks bounced on Wednesday with the major index ETFs gaining around 2%. Today’s report will put these bounces into context. We will show the difference between bullish setups in harmony with the bigger force and
Market/ETF Video – CBM Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, SPY become Oversold within Downtrend, Very Selective with ETFs (Premium)
Stock market volatility remains high as strong bouts of buying pressure are answered with strong bouts of selling pressure. Strong buying pressure and broadening upside participation turned the thrust models bullish in August, but these signals
Market and ETF Report – Slim Pickings, SPY Become Oversold (but), Dirty-Clean Energy Lead, Metals are Weak (Premium)
The pickings within the stock market are slim and the pickings outside the stock market are also slim. There are far more downtrends out there than uptrends and this limits the choices for trend-following and those looking for pullbacks within uptrends. SPY and QQQ are
So-called Defensive ETFs are Not Immune to Broad Market Swings (Free)
The short-term trends for the big three are down (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and we are in a bear market. Over the last two weeks, the short-term trend (down) aligned with the long-term trend (down). This is a powerful combination
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Market and ETF Report – Correlations Rise, Gasoline Weighs on DBE, Base Metals Breakdown, Gold Falls As 10yr Rises (Premium)
SPY is testament to the volatile world we live in right now. The ETF surged some 14% in 22 days (.64% per day) from July 22nd until August 16th and then fell 8% the last 11 days (.73% per day). The fall, so far, is sharper than the rise. The reversal occurred with
Market/ETF Video – Declines from Falling 200-day SMAs Extend, Correlations Rise as Participation Broadens, Ag and Uranium Buck the Selling (Premium)
Stocks moved sharply lower the last two weeks with ten of the eleven sector SPDRs declining and almost all industry group ETFs falling. Energy-related ETFs and the Uranium ETF were exceptions. The long-term trend for
Market and ETF Report – SPY and QQQ Become Oversold After Failures, Energy Continues to Lead, Agriculture Perks Up (Premium)
Stocks were hit hard again over the last two days and are now short-term oversold. While short-term oversold conditions could give way to an oversold bounce, we saw some important failures near falling 200-day SMAs over the last two weeks. These failures are long-term negative so I would not read too much into an oversold bounce
Improving Odds by Focusing on ETFs with Leading Uptrends (Free)
Traders can improve the odds of success by focusing on ETFs in leading uptrends. TrendInvestorPro identifies such ETFs with a table that shows Trend Composite signals and the 52-week range
Improving Odds by Focusing on ETFs with Leading Uptrends (Free) Read More »