The next report will be on Tuesday, June 17th
Report Headlines
- Commodity and Crypto Related ETFs Leading
- IEF Remains Range Bound – Long and Short Term
- GLD Consolidates Near Flag Resistance
- SLV Surges to New Highs
- GDX and SIL Pullback after New Highs
- Palladium ETF Hits New High for 2025
- Platinum ETF Enters the Unsustainosphere
- CPER Falls back into Triangle
- DB Agriculture ETF Consolidates after Breakout
- Natural Gas ETF Battles Support Zone
- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Break Out
Commodity and Crypto Related ETFs
Non-equity ETFs continue to perform well and feature in the top twenty. These include commodity, bond and crypto ETFs. This list expands when we include equity ETFs related to commodities, such as the Gold Miners ETF (GDX). GDX is part of the equity group because its components are stocks and stocks represent companies. This also applies to SIL, URA and BLOK. These ETFs are composed of stocks, not the underlying asset.
The table below comes from the ETF Rotation Strategy. It is updated every Saturday, hence the close on Friday, June 6th. It is sorted by ETF Momentum to put the strongest at the top. Here we have the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and Gold SPDR (GLD), which represent alternatives to currencies. The blue shading shows ETFs related to commodities, bonds or crypto, and includes some equity ETFs.
10 of the top 20 ETFs (50%) are related to crypto, commodities and bonds. This is why I feature non-equity ETFs on Thursdays. In a bull market, I would normally focus on equity ETFs because stocks are the place to be during bull markets. However, the Market Regime evidence is still net bearish and this means we must still consider alternatives. Furthermore, these alternatives are in uptrend and showing leadership.
IEF Remains Range Bound - Long and Short Term
The 7-10Yr TBond ETF (IEF) is a challenge because the ETF has gone nowhere the last two years and is currently in the middle of its two year range. The 200-day SMA is also in the middle of this range and IEF is just below this long-term moving average. Long-term trend-following indicators do not work in trading ranges so we can ignore crosses of the 200-day SMA for now.
With a long-term trading range, my focus remains on the shorter patterns at work. Most recently, IEF broke support in early April and this remains the active signal. Since this breakdown, the ETF consolidated with a triangle or narrowing range into June. I am marking resistance at 95 and a breakout here would be bullish.
GLD Consolidates Near Flag Resistance
The Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in a long-term uptrend with a new high in late April and price well above the rising 200-day SMA. GLD corrected into June with a falling flag, which is a bullish continuation pattern. The ETF advanced to the upper line in late May and then consolidated just below this line. A breakout at 312.5 would signal a continuation higher and open the door to new highs.
SLV Surges to New Highs
The Silver ETF (SLV) broke triangle resistance in early June and surged to new highs. Overall, the triangle represents a large consolidation within a long-term uptrend. It is also a bullish continuation pattern and the breakout signals a continuation higher. The breakout zone in the 31 area turns first support, should SLV pull back. A throwback to the breakout zone offers a second chance to partake in the breakout. Otherwise, SLV is in the trend-monitoring phase, which means I do not see an oversold setup or tradable pattern.
GDX and SIL Pullback after New Highs
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is also in the trend-monitoring phase. Its last oversold setup was in late May when %B hit the zero area and GDX retraced 61.8% of its prior surge. The last bullish pattern was the falling flag and the breakout in late May. GDX hit a new high to affirm its long-term uptrend. There is nothing to do now but watch and wait for the next setup to emerge.
The Silver Miners ETF (SIL) formed a bullish cup-with-handle pattern from November to May and broke rim resistance with a surge to new highs. A flag formed in May to mark the handle. These are bullish continuation patterns and the breakout clearly affirms the long-term uptrend. SIL is also in the trend-monitoring phase because I do not see an oversold condition or tradable pattern right now. Broken resistance in the 42-43 area turns first support to watch should SIL pull back.
Palladium ETF Hits New High for 2025
The Palladium ETF (PALL) surged to its highest level since early November and remains in a long-term uptrend. I am using the PPO(5,200,0) for long-term trend signals here. An uptrend signal with a cross above +1%, which means the 5-day EMA is more than 1% above the 200-day EMA. This signal triggered on May 21st. PALL broke resistance a day earlier. There was a sharp pullback after these signals that offered a second chance to partake. Keep this sequence/setup in mind for the future: long-term breakout and short-term pullback. PALL is currently in the trend-monitoring phase.
Platinum ETF Enters the Unsustainosphere
The Platinum ETF (PLTM) did nothing for over two years and then surged 38% from early April to mid June. PLTM hit new highs and is approaching its 2021 high near 13. The breakout in mid May is clearly bullish, but the 38% surge is unsustainable. Violent moves often lead to violent pullbacks. If long, this might be a good time to take some money off the table and buckle up for the ride.
CPER Falls back into Triangle
The Copper ETF (CPER) remains in a long-term uptrend, but this is a volatile uptrend with big swings in both directions. CPER is above the rising 200-day SMA and the chart shows higher lows for well over a year. Short-term, CPER surged off the April low, consolidated with a triangle and broke the triangle line last week. This breakout is getting cold feet as CPER fell over 2% on Wednesday. Given recent history, we can expect some volatility. The May lows and rising 200-day SMA mark a support zone in the 28-28.5 area. I will remain bullish as long as CPER holds 28.
DB Agriculture ETF Consolidates after Breakout
The DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) remains in a long-term uptrend with a new high in February and price well above its rising 200-day SMA. The working pattern/signal is the falling wedge breakout in late April. Even though DBA has yet to extend on this breakout, the breakout has yet to be negated and remains bullish. Long-term support is set at 25.50.
Natural Gas ETF Battles Support Zone
The Natural Gas ETF (UNG) fell back to its support zone in late April and remains in this support zone (blue shading). Support here stems from broken resistance, the January-April lows and the 200-day SMA. It is a rather big zone (15-17) because UNG has above average volatility (risk). Overall, I view the decline from 24 to 15 as a correction after the November-March surge. A breakout at 17.5 would reverse this decline and signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Break Out
The Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) hit a new high in late May, pulled back into June with a flag and broke out with a surge above 60. This falling flag has nine bars, which makes it very short-term and prone to whipsaw. The shorter and tighter the pattern, the higher the chance of whipsaw because of short-term noise (volatility). 1-2 week flags and pennants are for nimble short-term traders. IBIT surged 4.24% on June 9th for the breakout. It is important that this strong breakout move holds and I would mark the first re-evaluation level at 59. A close below this level would negate the flag breakout. A failed flag would not affect the long-term uptrend. Instead, it could lead to a longer corrective period and the next setup.
The Ethereum ETF (ETHA) followed Bitcoin with a pennant breakout on June 10th, a day later than the IBIT breakout. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a pretty strong positive correlation (~.70). This means they tend to move in the same direction, which means Bitcoin signals could be used to anticipate Ethereum signals. Bitcoin is the dog here, and Ethereum is the tail. The dog wags the tail, not the other way around. In any case, the pennant breakout in ETHA is bullish until proven otherwise. A close below 20 would erase the breakout move and call for a re-evaluation.
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