Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term
Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads
Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,
The previous article explained the methodology behind the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy with signal and ranking table examples. This article will update performance by showing the equity curve relative to buy-and-hold, putting the June drawdown
This is an update to the Trend-Momentum strategy that trades the All Weather ETF List. First introduced in February 2022, this strategy benefits from bull markets by focusing on stock-based ETFs when the Composite Breadth Model turns
Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing
The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial
Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend
After becoming very oversold in mid June, the major index ETFs are in the midst of oversold bounces or consolidations over the last three weeks. Predicting the extend of a bounce is tricky, but the current bounce since mid
Cracks in the stock market began to appear in the second half of 2021 and spread to large-caps in early 2022. Defensive groups within the stock market were holding up, but got hit hard in June. Industrial metals and agricultural commodities were holding
My screen for today’s price action is a sea of red right now. Stock futures are modestly lower, energy futures are lower, gold is slightly lower, industrial metals are sharply lower and agricultural commodities are sharply lower. The US Dollar Index is the only thing higher and it is trading at a new high
Today’s report to put trend and volatility together so we can identify the best conditions, the worst conditions and the questionable conditions. Most of us know that current conditions are the worst for stocks because we are in a bear market with high volatility. We will chart volatility to show when it is deemed high and
Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the
Stocks bounced the last five days, but these bounces are considered counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. One of these counter-trend moves will result in a trend reversal, but this is not the case yet because the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. The first indicator window below shows
As noted in Tuesday’s report and in Wednesday’s video, the majority of ETFs in the Master List (274) are in downtrends. There are a few groups holding up, but even energy and agriculture were hit with selling pressure here in June. Mr Market is dazed, confused
The major index ETFs and big sector SPDRs extended their downtrends and recorded fresh 52-week lows over the last few days. New lows were also seen in most tech and consumer discretionary ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model reflects the broadness of downside participation and widening yield
There are a lot of downtrends out there and not just stock-based ETFs. The vast majority of stock-based ETFs are in downtrends with Trend Composite values in negative territory. ETFs related to industrial metals, precious metals, bonds and non-Dollar currencies are also in downtrends
Today’s commentary will dive into Dow Theory and show some overlap with Elliott Wave. We will show the phase/wave counts for the last bear market and then make an attempt to label the current
The major index ETFs extended their downtrends with a vengeance over the last five trading days. It was a most exceptional period because almost everything declined the last five days – and I do mean everything. 52-week lows expanded
It was a “sell everything” moment the last four days as stocks, bonds, commodities and non-Dollar currencies declined. The Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) rose 2.82% the last four days and the Corn ETF (CORN) was up .46%. Those are the only two ETFs
Small-caps are outperforming large-caps over the last one to two weeks because large-caps stalled and small-caps continued higher. Even so, I am not following the siren song of small-cap relative strength and am more concerned with short-term relative weakness in