Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is at +5, the vast majority of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads remain narrow. Short-term, we could see some headwinds and volatility because the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged and the election looms. We will cover the surge in the 10yr Yield, but take a pass on the election.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with signs of broadening participation as mid-caps perk up. SPY hit another new high, but QQQ and semis remain below their summer highs. Large-cap techs are also showing some fatigue. We then compare SOXX and SMH, cover the leading tech ETFs and highlight the breakout in Bitcoin. We finish with two stocks: HPE (data centers) and MLM (construction materials).
Cybersecurity ETF Comes to Life with New Trending Phase (Free)
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that CIBR began its leadership role a lot earlier because it hit a new high in late August. Today’s report will analyze the recent breakout and suggest some possibilities in the future.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with strong breadth, the plunge in yield spreads and fresh highs in SPY. Tech-related ETFs are leading in October as triangle breakouts extend (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and new highs are tagged (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail setups in the Healthcare (XLV), Palladium (PALL) and Biotech (IBB). Other Symbols Covered: VRTX, AMGN, AKAM and MU.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Tech-related ETFs are perking up with some triangle breakouts (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and some new highs (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail short-term setups in the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Palladium ETF (PALL). Other Symbols Covered: ILMN, INCY, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MRVL
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the weight of the evidence for stocks. We look at the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Attention then turns the patterns in play for XLK, SOXX and MAGS, as well as four tech ETFs hitting new highs. China stole the show last week so we also analyze the China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), copper and base metals.
Finding Bullish Setup Zones within Bigger Uptrends – Requirements, Considerations, Conditions, Setups and Signals (Premium)
This report will show how to find bullish setup zones for trading pullbacks within the bigger uptrend. This is trading in the direction of the bigger uptrend. We are only focused on uptrends and bullish setups. In addition, there are two requirements: the broad market trend must be up and the stock must be
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads, SPY and QQQ. We then turn to key levels for tech ETFs and highlight the leaders. Commodity-related ETFs are strong since August and we are seeing breakouts base metals, agriculture and others. This report also features three stocks: two from healthcare and one from defense.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
We are still in a bull market, but some risk-on groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading. Interest rate sensitive groups are leading. After hard hits in early September, tech names recovered this week with strong advances. We will put these into context and show key levels to watch (QQQ, XLK, MAGS, SOXX). The other four tech ETFs (IGV, CIBR, SKYY, FINX) are holding up better. This report also cover MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA.
Market Timing for a Rules-Based Strategy
Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies are fully invested during bull markets because risk is acceptable. Strategies move to cash
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the CBM and yield spread to define the broad market environment. Despite bull market conditions, odds are increasing for corrective period. We are seeing relative and absolute weakness in key groups, leadership in defensive groups and weak seasonal patterns. GLD and TLT remain strong, while Bitcoin remains weak. We finished with PODD and META.
It all Started with a Big Bang! (Free)
Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify “big bang” moves by showing price change in ATR terms. We can use the price charts to identify big breakouts. Today’s example will show
Defining the Stock Market with the Composite Breadth Model
This page is for subscribers to Chart Trader. It starts with a chart showing the Composite Breadth Model and signals over the last few years. This model defines the environment for stocks: bull market or bear market. We then explain the methodology behind the model with indicator examples and charts.
ChartTrader Weekly Report – Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the CBM to define the market. We then address the recent market mood swing as volatility picked up, techs started lagging and defensive groups started leading. Cybersecurity and Fintech are leading within tech and we feature four stocks from these groups. Symbols Covered: XLU, XLP, XLV, XLK, SOXX, CYBR, IGV, FINX, XLRE, ITB, ITA, KIE, IBB, FAN, PBJ, PANW, CYBR, JKHY, PYPL
This Housing-Related Stock Just Printed a 5 for the Trend Composite
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a new closing high this week. While this high is certainly bullish and points to upside leadership, the real signal triggered back in early July as the Trend Composite turned bullish with an outsized move. Let’s review this signal and then look at a recent signal in
ChartTrader – Broad Breadth Model – SPX-NDX Breadth Model – Yield Spreads (Premium)
This report covers the broad market environment and will be updated every Friday. We start with the breadth models to define the broad market environment (bull market or bear market). The first model covers the broader market, while the second model emphasizes the Nasdaq 100. And finally, we finish with yield spreads to assess conditions in the credit markets.
ChartTrader – Overbought Conditions – Price Surges – Volatility Spikes – SPY, QQQ & MAGS – Key Tech ETFs and Stocks (Premium)
Today’s report starts with short-term overbought conditions, the 12 day surge and the increase in volatility. We then turn to the long-term trends for SPY, QQQ and MAGS. Several tech-related ETFs and tech stocks broke short-term resistance levels and we will set the key levels to watch going forward. Analysis covers SOXX, IGV, CIBR, NVDA, AVGO, AMAT, GOOGL, MSFT and more.
ChartTrader – Healthcare and Biotech Continue to Lead – Three Healthcare Stocks with Breakouts (Premium)
This report starts with the leaders over the last ten days and the leaders based on 52-week highs. Large-cap tech stocks led the 10-day surge, but Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Biotech are leading on charts. We then analyze the Healthcare SPDR, Biotech ETF and three Healthcare stocks (CAH, INCY, ILMN)
ChartTrader – Healthcare Sector Leads – 3 Healthcare Breakouts – GOOGL, MSFT and Six Tech ETFs Test Key SMAs (Premium)
This report starts with the Healthcare SPDR because it is one of the leading sectors right now. Also notice that the Consumer Staples SPDR, Utilities SPDR and Real Estate SPDR are also leading with new highs this week. Leadership from the defensive sectors points to some risk
ChartTrader – Nikkei Unwind – SPY/QQQ/MAGS Corrections – VIX – Symbols: NVDA, AVGO, GEHC, ABT (Premium)
This report starts a long-term look at the Nikkei, which started breaking down in July. US stocks rebounded after sharp declines on August 5th, but they have yet to fully recover and remain in short-term downtrends. We will look at the corrections in SPY, QQQ and MAGS.
TLT Turns the Corner and Starts to Lead
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.
ChartTrader – VIX and Yield Spreads Surge – Correlations on Rise – A Canary for SPY – TLT Holds Breakout (Premium)
Increasing uncertainty is causing the markets to reprice. SPY, QQQ and IWM hit new highs in July and were priced for the best of all worlds. We then got a shakeup in the presidential race, a weak jobs report and a route in the Nikkei. Markets do not like uncertainty and
ChartTrader – VIX Spike – NDX Breadth Deteriorates – Short-term Breadth Not Yet Oversold – SPY Downside Target (Premium)
Selling pressure broadened over the last three days with the broader market (S&P 500 stocks) joining tech-related stocks (Nasdaq 100 stocks) in the sell off. The long-term trends are still up for SPY and QQQ. In addition, the Composite Breadth Model and the SPX-NDX Breadth model remain
This Breadth Indicator Points to More Downside – And a Potential Opportunity
QQQ is leading the market lower and weighing on tech stocks. The long-term trend is up and oversold breadth could present an opportunity. Short-term breadth has yet to become oversold and this means we may have further downside first.