Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
SPX/NDX Breadth, Yield Spreads, SPY/QQQ Trends, MAG7 Leads and Small-caps Try to Lead
Today’s report will cover the broad market environment. We start with the long-term breadth indicators for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (%Above 200-day, %Above 150-day, High-Low Percent). Attention then turns to the BBB yield spread and long-term chart analysis for SPY and QQQ. QQQ found its mojo as the MAG7 ETF leads. Mid-caps are lagging, micro-caps are leading the small-caps are mixed.
Fintech Leadership Provides Good Hunting Ground for Bullish Setups
Chartists looking for stock setups can start with strong industry groups. The Fintech (FINX) is in a strong uptrend and leading, but looking extended short-term. While there is no setup currently, we can learn from past setups and apply these lessons to stocks within the group.
5 Stocks: Tight Bullish Wedges, A Bullish Setup Zone, A Breakout Leader and One Near a Prior Breakout Level – Plus XLV and XBI (Premium)
Today’s report starts with a defense stock and a fintech stock forming tight wedges. After reviewing the rebounds in the Healthcare and Biotech ETFs, we then focus on two biopharma stocks: one testing a Bullish Setup Zone and the other with a leading breakout. And finally, we feature an under-the-radar tech stock trading near its breakout point from late October.
ITB Consolidates, Yields Fall, SOXX Ignores Curbs, LIT, SLV and FXI Set Up, TSM Reasserts Uptrend, META Leads, MSFT Recovers (Premium)
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Plunge in 10yr Yield Triggers Home Builders – Analyzing ITB and Five Stocks (Premium)
Today’s report analyzes the move in the 10-yr Treasury Yield, the surge in ITB and five home builder stocks. Home Builders were lagging the last few months, but the declines look like normal corrections. The retracements were normal and some surged off bullish setup zones. In addition, we are seeing a momentum thrust in %B.
Drop in Yields Triggers Gap-Surge in Home Builders (Free)
The 10-yr Treasury Yield plunged as Treasury bonds surged on the heels of a new nomination for Treasury secretary. These moves lifted small-caps, banks and homebuilders. Banks have been leading for some time and small-caps started their move last week. Homebuilders held out for interest rates and got their catalyst on Monday. Today’s report will analyze
Four Prerequisites to Improve Your Odds – A Live Example (Free)
Even though trading based on chart analysis involves some discretionary decisions, chartists can improve the odds of success by systematizing their process. This report will show four prerequisite filters based on a top-down approach. We will start with the broader market, look at the sector, and then apply two qualifying filters to the stock. First, I would make sure
Chart Trader – Biotech Oversold, MLPs Surge, Lithium Consolidates, Uranium Breaks Out, Two Leading Stocks and Two with Pullbacks (Premium)
Today’s report starts with some of the leading ETFs in strong uptrends – but without setups. These include software (IGV), fintech (FINX) and finance (XLF). Attention then turns to some oversold setups in Healthcare and Biotech, and the group’s leader (Medical Devices). MLPs are breaking out within the Energy sector and we are seeing two commodity ETFs strengthen (Uranium and Lithium). Turning to stocks, we have two breakout leaders (TJX, VRSK) and two former leaders with pullbacks (AVGO, UHS).
Chart Trader – QQQ Pulls Back, Using %B, Smalls Return to Breakout, Banks Lead, Cybersecurity Tests 50-day, Robotics hold Breakout (Premium)
This report covers recent pullbacks in the major index ETFs (SPY, QQQ, MDY and IJR). Financials are a key driver for small-caps and I will show a leading uptrend in the Bank SPDR (KBE). We will then cover the breakout in the Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ) and the pullback in the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR).
Understanding Equity Curve Performance and Setting Realistic Expectation (Premium)
It is important to understand the ebb and flow of the equity curve when trading a strategy. How long is the strategy flat or down? How often do we see strong momentum runs? How often does the strategy experience double-digit drawdowns? How can we take advantage of drawdown? We will answer these questions and more.
A Tale of Two Semiconductor ETFs – Why is SOXX Weaker than SMH? (Free)
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is lagging the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) as it broke the 200-day SMA and confirmed a bearish pattern. SMH is holding up because its top component remains strong. Nevertheless SMH is at a moment of truth ahead of a big earnings report from Nvidia.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Stocks went on a tear the last eight days, but most of these moves were simply extensions of existing uptrends. Nevertheless, many stocks and ETFs became very overbought short-term. These include KBE, IGV, SKYY, FINX and CIBR. We also see the market pricing in policy shifts in Healthcare (XLV) and Defense (ITA), as well as the prospects of tariffs (CPER, DBB). Despite overbought conditions, it is a bull market we will highlight three stocks setting up: DDOG, CSX and CCEP.
Do Overbought Filters Improve Performance for Momentum Rotation Strategies? (Premium)
Buying stocks that seem overbought is difficult, but this is often required when trading a momentum-rotation strategy. By design, these strategies buy the strongest stocks and many seem “overbought”. Momentum is all about buying high and selling higher. This report will test the original Rotation Investor strategies with the addition of an overbought filter. In other words, we will avoid stocks that are overbought. Does this filter help or hurt performance?
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
The election has come and gone, and the market trends remain the same. The major index ETFs were in uptrends well before the election, breadth was strong throughout September-October and yield spreads showed confidence. This broad market trio was, and is, bullish. Tech-related ETFs extended on their breakouts and we will feature three AI stocks. Commodities were all over the place so we will revisit industrial metals and copper. Analysis includes VRTX, FCX, COPX and DBA.
Finding and Trading Oversold Conditions within Long-term Uptrends (Free)
There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and breaks below short-term moving averages. Leaning bearish within a long-term uptrend is not a profitable strategy. Instead, we should lean bullish and use oversold conditions to our advantage. In a long-term uptrend, I am only interested in
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but a correction is underway as Treasury yields surge and semiconductors weigh on the largest sector. Semis account for 35.57% of the Technology SPDR and this sector accounts for 32.24% of the S&P 500. We will review the long-term breadth indicators and show some short-term breadth indicators to watch for oversold conditions. Names hitting bullish setup zones include XLV, GEHC, AMGN, ITA, INDA, CPER and COPX.
Two Indicators to Start your Process and Improve Your Edge
There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with two proven concepts: trend and momentum. These are perhaps the two most powerful forces in the market. The idea is relatively simple: stay on the right side of the trend and focus on the leaders. This is basically dual-momentum. Starting our process with these two steps
SystemTrader – How to Start Trading a Strategy – Good Times and Bad (Premium)
Everyone has a trading plan until they go into drawdown. The Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies are off to a great start here in 2024. This is the easy part. Don’t forget that RISK is always lurking in the equity markets and this is something we must always take into account. There is no reward without risk.
SystemTrader – Diversification Benefits – Recency Bias – Dealing with Drawdowns – Tweaks (Premium)
The Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies started out with a bang this year and produced big gains in the first three months. Market action then turned mixed with tech-related stocks falling sharply. The Nasdaq 100 strategy moved into a deep drawdown the last five weeks (NDX update here). The S&P 500 strategy is holding up well because
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. The Composite Breadth Model is at +5, the vast majority of stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads remain narrow. Short-term, we could see some headwinds and volatility because the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged and the election looms. We will cover the surge in the 10yr Yield, but take a pass on the election.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with signs of broadening participation as mid-caps perk up. SPY hit another new high, but QQQ and semis remain below their summer highs. Large-cap techs are also showing some fatigue. We then compare SOXX and SMH, cover the leading tech ETFs and highlight the breakout in Bitcoin. We finish with two stocks: HPE (data centers) and MLM (construction materials).
Cybersecurity ETF Comes to Life with New Trending Phase (Free)
The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that CIBR began its leadership role a lot earlier because it hit a new high in late August. Today’s report will analyze the recent breakout and suggest some possibilities in the future.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with strong breadth, the plunge in yield spreads and fresh highs in SPY. Tech-related ETFs are leading in October as triangle breakouts extend (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and new highs are tagged (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail setups in the Healthcare (XLV), Palladium (PALL) and Biotech (IBB). Other Symbols Covered: VRTX, AMGN, AKAM and MU.
Chart Trader Weekly Report – Broad Market Analysis, Leading Groups (ETFs), Chart Setups and Trading Ideas (Premium)
Today’s report starts with the Composite Breadth Model, yield spreads and the major trends. Tech-related ETFs are perking up with some triangle breakouts (QQQ, XLK, MAGS) and some new highs (CIBR, IGV, SKYY, FINX). We then detail short-term setups in the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Palladium ETF (PALL). Other Symbols Covered: ILMN, INCY, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MRVL