Recent Reports on TrendInvestorPro

-Research/Education

Bottoming Process – Capitulation, Short and Medium Term Thrusts, Regime Change

The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an

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-Current Analysis

Market/ETF Video – Bear Market vs ZBT – SPY/QQQ Resistance – ETFs with Leading Breakouts

Today’s video starts with the long-term trend and breadth indicators to define the broad market environment. We then turn to the Zweig Breadth Thrust and show the key SPY levels to watch going forward. Stocks are all over the place in April, but a handful of leaders emerged with uptrends, relative strength and breakouts. Elsewhere, the Bitcoin ETF extended on its breakout and GLD is still looking extended.

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-Current Analysis

Market-ETF Report – ZBT Update – Key SPY/QQQ Levels – XLK Resistance – Breakouts in Play

Stocks are all over the place in April with a breakdown at the beginning and a Zweig Breadth Thrust towards the end. April price action seems to dominate, but it was the March breakdowns that reversed the long-term uptrends. The weight of the evidence also turned bearish in mid March as long-term breadth indicators also triggered. Currently, the long-term

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-Current Analysis

Market & ETF Report – Thrust Shortfall – SPY Resistance – Defensive Groups Lead

Today’s report starts with the Zweig Breadth Thrust, which failed to trigger for the S&P 500, but remains a possibility for the S&P 1500. Follow through in the coming days is needed to trigger. We then turn to detailed analysis of SPY, which is below its falling 200-day SMA and near short-term resistance. Stocks are still broadly out of favor with eight of the eleven sectors

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-Current Analysis

Market & ETF Video – Bounce Targets – Thrust Indicators – 2 Tech ETFs – Bitcoin Breakout – Gold Warning

The weight of the evidence remains bearish, but stocks are currently experiencing an oversold bounce. This video will show upside targets and show what it takes to go from a bear market bounce to a bullish breadth thrust. Attention then turns to nine equity ETFs that are holding up the best, including two tech-related ETFs. In the alternative asset group, Bitcoin broke out and the DB Agriculture ETF is making a move. Gold is going parabolic and getting dangerous.

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-Current Analysis

Stocks Surge, but Was it Enough for a Breadth Thrust?

Short-term breadth became oversold on April 4th and stocks surged on April 9th with SPY gaining 10%. SPY then fell 6.5% into Monday and became short-term oversold again. Stock rebounded on Tuesday with SPY gaining 2.6%. Trading is very choppy, but SPY is currently experiencing an oversold bounce. This is still considered a bear market bounce because the market regime indicators are net bearish and we have yet to see a bullish breadth thrust.

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Complimentary

Equities? Fuhgeddaboudit! Alternative Assets are Leading

Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market and the vast majority of names are trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

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-Current Analysis

Not Many Uptrends – Gold Gets Frothy – Silver Lags – Natty Tests Breakout – Bitcoin Sets Up

Today’s report will focus on some commodity-related ETFs for two reasons. First, we are in a bear market for stocks. Second, these ETFs are in uptrends. Despite these uptrends, volatility is increasing in this group as well. There is no escaping volatility these days. We will also cover Bitcoin because it is an alternative asset that is setting up.

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-Current Analysis

Market Regime ETF Video – Bear Market Bounce – When Relative Strength Means Less Weakness

The weight of the evidence remains bearish. Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but we have yet to see follow through strong enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust. SPY and QQQ are in long-term downtrends and near short-term resistance levels after their oversold bounces, which creates a precarious situation. In fact, several ETFs are hitting resistance levels after oversold bounces. Some ETFs are even showing relative strength, but this really means “less weakness”. Gold remains the ultimate safe-haven and Bitcoin has a bullish failure swing working.

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-Current Analysis

Market/ETF Report – Not Oversold – Downtrends Remain – Precious Metals Lead – Bitcoin Failure Swing

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks and the bounce over the last four days is considered an oversold bounce. Our short-term breadth thrust indicators have yet to trigger. Until these indicators trigger, I will consider this a bear market bounce. This means negative outcomes are still more likely than positive outcomes. Resistance zones are more likely to hold and support levels are more likely to be broken. In short, risk in stocks remains above average. See this report for an update on the thrust indicators..

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Freemium

An Oversold Bounce is One Thing – A Bullish Breadth Thrust is Another

Panic selling and oversold extremes gave way to a rip higher last week. Stocks are poised to open strong on Monday as the market reacts positively to tariff news. Last week’s bounce is considered an oversold bounce within a bear market. Thrust signals are setting up, but strong follow through is needed to trigger actual signals. This report will first review the panic indicators and the short-term oversold condition, and then show what it would take to move from a bear market bounce to a bullish breadth thrust.

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-Current Analysis

Market Report – Down/Up – Evidence Unchanged – No Thrust, but Watching – SPY – QQQ

The analysis mode remains macro because the weight of the evidence is still bearish for stocks. Moreover, the markets are unhinged with stocks, commodities, currencies and Treasury bonds fluctuating wildly. Chaos makes chart analysis exceptionally difficult. Perhaps there is opportunity in the chaos, but the current market environment is for nimble traders with quick trigger fingers.

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-Current Analysis

Market Regime – Weighing the Evidence using Trends, Breadth and Yield Spreads

This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting

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-Current Analysis

Long & Short Term Oversold Extremes – Bear Market Rules Apply – Zweig Indicator Sets Up

Before looking at the current extremes, keep in mind that the weight of the evidence on the Market Regime page is bearish. We are in a bear market, and bear market rules apply. Support levels are less likely to hold and Bullish Setups are less likely to work. Stocks are extremely oversold right now: long-term and short-term. These oversold conditions could lead to a bounce, but this will be considered a bear market bounce as long as the evidence remains bearish. With volatility higher in bear markets, we can expect some sharp counter-trend bounces and erratic price action.

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-Current Analysis

BitCoin Firms at Key Level, but Remains Short of a Reversal

Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals and other economically sensitive commodities. There are few places to hide in bear markets, and the list of alternatives continues to shrink. Bitcoin, an alternative, is holding up relatively well since March, but

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