Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Once again, we are seeing broad strength in the Technology sector. Tech is not the only strong sector as three other sectors recorded hat tricks with new highs in the SPDR, the equal-weight sector ETF and small-cap sector ETF (Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Industrials).

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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

SPY hit a new high for the week and gained 1.02%, which is not considered an outsized advance for one week. The weekly gain exceeded 2% twice in January 2018 and these were outsized advances.

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Market Timing Models – To Infinity and Beyond

Stocks turned a bit mixed the last two weeks, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish, both long-term and short-term. Looking at the five biggest equal-weight sectors, we saw new highs in the EW Technology ETF (RYT), EW Industrials ETF (RGI) and EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) this week. Technology led in 2019 and continues to lead in 2020.

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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

There were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IJR (small-caps) hit new highs. Five of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while just two equal-weight sectors hit new highs.

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Market Timing Models – Short-term Test Awaits as Noise Levels Increase

It’s just the second trading day of 2020 and already the markets are setting up for a test. Stock futures are sharply lower as the S&P 500 looks set to open down around 1%. Gold, the Dollar and Treasury bonds are sharply higher as money looks for alternatives. A sharp decline in the S&P 500 could reverse the short-term uptrend and herald the much awaited correction.

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