Recent Commentary and Analysis

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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Defensive ETFs led the rebound the first three days of the week and held up the best on Thursday and Friday. Utilities, bonds, gold, Healthcare, REITs and Consumer Staples finished the week with strong gains.

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When Fibonacci Retracements and Support become Questionable

Support levels and bullish retracement zones are questionable, at best, in bear market environments. Why? Because the path of least resistance is down in a bear market. As such, the odds that a support level holds or a bullish retracement zones leads to a reversal odds greatly reduced

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Playing Whac-A-Mole with a Sharp Mean-Reversion Bounce

This is just an update to the mean-reversion setup currently in play for the S&P 500 (and SPY). I will also post the regular ETF report later today, probably around 10AM ET. The mean-reversion setups were explained in detail last Friday, Saturday and Sunday

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Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook

Only three of the sixty ETFs in the core list advanced this week: AGG, TLT and LQD (bonds). Everything else declined, but the biotech ETFs (IBB and XBI) declined the least of the common stock ETFs. The banking and insurance ETFs (KRE, KBE, KIE) led the way lower with the banking ETFs hitting 52-week lows.

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Studying Past Shocks for Clues on the Future

As technical analysts and chartists, we study historical prices and patterns to get an idea of what to expect going forward. No two patterns are exactly the same, but they often rhyme with a few common characteristics.

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