Recent Commentary and Analysis
A Moment of Truth for the Russell 2000 ETF as Throwback Tests Support
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke out of a pennant formation last week and then fell sharply this week. This puts the ETF back in the pennant and near its make or break level.
Market Timing Models – Trend, Tape and Fed Maintain the Course
The S&P 500 SPDR is up 3% in three weeks (January) and trading near an all time high. Furthermore, the ETF is up 14.5% since August and 9.9% since October. These are big moves in relatively short timeframes, no matter how you slice it.
ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Some Shaky Breakouts and the Next Big Move
Large-caps and large-cap techs continue to lead in January 2020, and housing came back to life this month. The Home Construction ETF is the leading gainer this month with a 8.35% advance. The Cloud Computing ETF and Software ETF are not far behind with ~7.6% advances.
Despite Recent Underperformance, the Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is Starting to Look Interesting
The stock market started its latest run to infinity (and beyond) in mid August and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) just happened to peak a week or so later. Note that stocks and bonds were largely on the same page from February to August as both moved higher.
Weekend Setups and Stocks to Watch – A Pair of Semis as SOXX hits a New High
Today we have eight stocks with bullish setups. They come from an array of groups, but all have one thing in common: they are all in some sort of long-term uptrend. They are all above their rising 200-day SMAs and their 20-day EMAs are above their 200-day SMAs.
Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook
Once again, we are seeing broad strength in the Technology sector. Tech is not the only strong sector as three other sectors recorded hat tricks with new highs in the SPDR, the equal-weight sector ETF and small-cap sector ETF (Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Industrials).
Market Timing Models – Trend, Tape and Fed Maintain the Course
Stocks have been ripe for a rest or correction for weeks, and yet the current advance continues to broaden and buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. We already know that SPY and QQQ are hitting new highs and leading.
ETF Ranking, Grouping and Analysis – Small-caps Come Alive, but Banks Continue to Drag
After a breather the last few weeks, the stock market rally appears to be broadening again. Small-caps were lagging the last few weeks as the Russell traded flat. Small-caps got back into gear this week with breakouts and fresh 52-week highs in the Russell 2000 ETF and S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR.
Understanding the Weighted Average Stochastic Score for Ranking and Rotation Strategies
This article will explain the methodology behind the ranking table that uses the Weighted Average Stochastic Score (Score). ETFs trading near their highs on multiple timeframes are typically in uptrends and have high scores, while ETFs trading near their lows
Weekend Setups and Stocks to Watch – Lithium, Cell Towers, Biotech, Industrial, Hot Dogs and Healthcare
Once again we have a rather mixed group for this weekends setups. Even though they come from an array of industry groups, the charts have one thing in common: they are in uptrends of some sort.
Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook
SPY hit a new high for the week and gained 1.02%, which is not considered an outsized advance for one week. The weekly gain exceeded 2% twice in January 2018 and these were outsized advances.
REIT SPDR Holds Key Moving Average as its Biggest Components Spring to Life
Ten of the eleven sector SPDRs are positive over the last three months. The Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) is the only sector sporting a loss (~.75%), but I am not concerned with relative weakness because the price chart looks bullish overall.
Market Timing Models – To Infinity and Beyond
Stocks turned a bit mixed the last two weeks, but the bulk of the evidence remains bullish, both long-term and short-term. Looking at the five biggest equal-weight sectors, we saw new highs in the EW Technology ETF (RYT), EW Industrials ETF (RGI) and EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) this week. Technology led in 2019 and continues to lead in 2020.
Grouping and Ranking Core ETFs – Meet the New Leader, Same as the Old Leader
Tech-related ETFs are leading the charge here in 2019 with fresh 52-week highs in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), Technology SPDR (XLK), Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY), Cyber Security ETF (HACK), Software ETF (IGV) and Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY).
Putting Declines into Perspective to Find Opportunities – A Tech Stock Poised to End its Correction
2019 was quite the year with many stocks moving sharply higher from January to July or August. In particular, several Technology stocks moved higher during this period and then corrected into October. We can see this pattern reflected in the Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RYT) as it advanced over 40% and then corrected for three months.
Weekend Setups and Stocks to Watch – Insurance, Media, Electronic Payments, Tech and Garbage
Today’s setups feature an array of stocks from an array of industry groups. The common thread is that the industry groups are strong. These groups include Insurance, Communication Services, Electronic Payments, Medical Devices, Technology and Industrials.
Weekend Video, Chart Notes and ChartBook
There were plenty of 52-week highs this week. SPY (large-caps), QQQ (large-cap techs), MDY (mid-caps) and IJR (small-caps) hit new highs. Five of the eleven sector SPDRs hit new highs this week, while just two equal-weight sectors hit new highs.
Market Timing Models – Short-term Test Awaits as Noise Levels Increase
It’s just the second trading day of 2020 and already the markets are setting up for a test. Stock futures are sharply lower as the S&P 500 looks set to open down around 1%. Gold, the Dollar and Treasury bonds are sharply higher as money looks for alternatives. A sharp decline in the S&P 500 could reverse the short-term uptrend and herald the much awaited correction.