The pickings within the stock market are slim and the pickings outside the stock market are also slim. There are far more downtrends out there than uptrends and this limits the choices for trend-following and those looking for pullbacks within uptrends. SPY and QQQ are

SPY is testament to the volatile world we live in right now. The ETF surged some 14% in 22 days (.64% per day) from July 22nd until August 16th and then fell 8% the last 11 days (.73% per day). The fall, so far, is sharper than the rise. The reversal occurred with

Stocks moved sharply lower the last two weeks with ten of the eleven sector SPDRs declining and almost all industry group ETFs falling. Energy-related ETFs and the Uranium ETF were exceptions. The long-term trend for

Stocks were hit hard again over the last two days and are now short-term oversold. While short-term oversold conditions could give way to an oversold bounce, we saw some important failures near falling 200-day SMAs over the last two weeks. These failures are long-term negative so I would not read too much into an oversold bounce

The weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks, but SPY became short-term oversold after a sharp decline the last five days. Even though this could give way to a bounce, the bears reasserted themselves and risk looks above average for stocks. Today’s report will

The Composite Breadth Model hit its moment of truth and failed to turn bullish as stocks moved sharply lower the last five days. Correlations rose as the vast majority of stock-based ETFs declined. Only energy-based

Stocks fell sharply the last two days and these declines were enough to reverse the short-term uptrends in many stock-based ETFs. In particular, the short-term uptrends reversed for SPY and QQQ. This is a big deal because the Composite Breadth Model was

The short-term uptrends are dominating the landscape, or at least this seems to be the case. SPY is below its falling 200-day SMA, but is up some 16% from its mid June low. It is a strong move that has yet to be reversed. In fact, there are dozens of ETFs with similar characteristics:

The thrust that began in mid July extended into mid August and triggered bullish signals in the Thrust Breadth Models. The Trend Models, however, remain bearish, as does the 5/200 day SMA cross for the S&P 500. At best, the market is split and more work is needed to turn bullish. At worst, the market is overbought

Market and ETF Report – SPY Nears 200-day, IWM Triggers, Energy ETFs Hold Breakouts, Agriculture ETF Breaks Out (Premium)

Stocks surged on reports that inflation was less than expected. Bonds did not. This is interesting because bonds are supposed to be more vulnerable to inflationary pressures. The news, however, is just the reported news we can never be sure of the true reasons for the price moves.