Recent Posts from Chart Trader and System Trader:
Performance Profile Paints Different Pictures for Commodity and Equity ETFs
The performance profile for 2025 says a lot about the state of the market. Commodity-related ETFs are leading, non-cyclical equity ETFs are holding up the best and cyclical names are performing the worst. Clearly, this is not a positive picture for the stock market. This report will show how to interpret the performance profile and separate the leaders from the laggards using a ChartList.
Commodity, Bond, Bitcoin Report – GLD in Beast Mode – CPER Parabolic – TLT Breakdown
Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets as it trades near all time highs. Copper is next in line as it goes parabolic and nears overbought levels. Bonds are confused with the TLT breaking down as IEF holds within a bullish consolidation. Bitcoin got an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend and a bearish pattern is taking shape.
Equity ETF Video – Defensive ETFs Lead – Two Tech ETFs Stand Out
The major index ETFs broke down in March, became oversold and got oversold bounces. Long-term trend reversals remain for SPY, QQQ and XLK. This means the recent bounces are counter-trend moves within bigger downtrends. ETFs related to housing, retail and semiconductors continue to lag and support a risk-off environment. Defensive names are holding up the best (Utilities, Insurance, MLP, Telecom). Most tech-related ETFs are in long-term downtrends, but two are holding up relatively well with short-term breakouts recently.
Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicators Get Oversold Bounce
This is an update for the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicators, which were featured on March 21st. The S&P 500 and S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust indicators became oversold with moves below -20% on March 13th. The black arrows on the SPY chart (bottom window) show the oversold setups
Equity ETF Report – Oversold Bounce – 11 Leaders – And Some Breakouts
Stocks broke down with deep declines into mid March (11-13). These deep declines led to short-term oversold conditions, which primed the pump for the current bounce. At this point, I consider this an oversold bounce, as opposed to a bullish thrust that turns the evidence bullish. We need to see strong follow through to go from oversold bounce to bullish thrust.
Two Ways to Use the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator
The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This report will explain the original Zweig Breadth Thrust and show how these signals work.
Commodity, Bond & Bitcoin ETFs – Copper Hits New High – Miners Follow – TLT Breakout
Today’s report covers the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs. Gold continues to lead the markets with strength transferring to the Gold Miners. The only concern is the overbought condition, which is fast approaching. Copper surged to a new high and Coppers Miners broke out. Bonds remain in an uptrend as TLT bids for a short-term breakout. Bitcoin bounces within downtrend.
Equity ETF Video – A Handful of Leaders – Finding ETFs with Relative Strength
Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains because they show absolute and relative strength this year. Note that SPY is down 4.3% year-to-date.
Market Regime – Weighing the Evidence using Trends, Breadth and Yield Spreads
This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators measure participation within the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 1500. Finally, we analyze yield spreads to see if the credit market show confidence or stress.
Equity ETF Report – Bear Market Bounce – 11 with Leading Uptrends and Bullish Charts
Stocks are in the midst of an oversold bounce, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for the stock market. This means the pickings are slim when it comes to equity ETFs. Today’s report focuses on equity ETFs that are still in long-term uptrends and showing relative strength. My short list is based on ETFs with year-to-date gains. SPY is down 3.23% this year. 23 of the 60 equity ETFs in
Two Models Trigger Bearish – Dealing with Drawdowns – Momentum Anomaly
The market gods smiled upon us in 2024 as stocks advanced throughout the year. 2025 is turning out differently as the major index ETFs reverse their long-term uptrends and two of the three market models turn bearish. As painful as they are, bear markets and corrections are part
SPY Reverses Long-term Uptrend with Outsized Move – Now What?
The weight of the evidence shifted to the bears over the last few weeks. First, the major index ETFs reversed their long-term uptrends with Bollinger Band signals, our breadth models turned net negative and yield spreads widened. This report will focus on the breakdown in the
Video – SPY Reverses – Now What? – 2022 Review – The Next Setup Zone
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ETF Report – Metals Lead Higher – Copper Miners Firm – TLT Consolidates
Today’s report will cover the commodity, bond and Bitcoin ETFs that were featured in yesterday’s video. Precious metals are leading the commodity complex and this strength is transferring to the gold and silver miners ETFs. Industrial metals ETFs are not far behind with copper taking the lead here. Even so, copper miners remain subdued and have yet to break out. I am not covering
Videos – Index, Sector & Industry Group ETFs – Commodity, Bond & Bitcoin ETFs
We have two videos on this page. First, there is a comprehensive video covering index, sector and industry group ETFs (equity ETFs). SPY and QQQ broke down, a couple sectors are holding up and a handful of industry group ETFs have yet to break their January lows. We then turn commodity ETFs, which are showing strength, as our bond ETFs. This vid conclude with the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).
ETF Report – SPY Breakdown – Selling Expands – Oversold ETFs – Eight Leaders
Stocks were broadsided the last three weeks with almost all equity ETFs losing ground. High-beta names are leading lower with the ARK ETFs (ARKK, ARKF, ARKG) down over 25%. Tech-related ETFs are right behind with declines ranging from 11.43% for Cybersecurity (CIBR) to 19.76% for Robotics AI (ARTY). Only four equity ETFs in my trading universe are showings
Commodity and Healthcare Related ETFs Lead in 2025 – Bullish Breakout in Biotechs
2025 is off to a rough start for stocks, but there are still some pockets of strength in the market. Year-to-date, SPY is down 1.73%, QQQ is down around 4% and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) is down over 6%. ETFs with smaller losses show relative strength (less weakness), but ETFs with year-to-date gains show relative
Stock Report – Shaky Market – 3 Defense Stocks – Off-Price Retailer – Healthcare Leader
There are five new setups today and some updates to prior setups. We start with three stocks from the defense industry because the Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is one of the leading industry group ETFs. I am also featuring a pharma stock (BMY) because the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is showing relative strength here in 2025. And finally, we have an off-price retailer (TJX). Even though it is
ETF Video – SPY/QQQ hit Moment of truth – A Clear Tech Leader – Healthcare Holds Strong
There are sizable and concerning pockets of weakness within the stock market, but SPY and QQQ are still in uptrends and testing key levels. The EW S&P 500 ETF, Technology SPDR and Industrials SPDR joined the breakdown list, along with small-caps (IJR) and mid-caps (MDY). One tech ETF stands out. We are also seeing long-term uptrends and relative strength in these eight ETFs (XLF, XLC, XLU, CIBR, IHI, AMLP, IYZ, GLD).
ETF Report – Techs Lead Market Lower – CIBR and AIQ are Two of Eleven Leading ETFs
Stocks were hit hard the last two weeks with small-caps and tech stocks leading the way lower. SPY is down around 4.6% from its late February high and entering the garden-variety correction range (5-8 percent). Believe it or not, five to eight percent pullbacks are not that uncommon – but they feel a lot worse
Small-caps Trigger Bearish, but Large-caps Hold Uptrend and Present an Opportunity
The Russell 2000 ETF triggered a bearish trend signal this week and continues to underperform S&P 500 SPDR, which remains with a bullish trend signal. Today’s report shows the Keltner Channel signals in each. SPY is currently correcting within an uptrend and pullbacks within uptrends are opportunities
Stock Report – Two NatGas Trades – A Leading Defense Play – A Bullish Semiconductor
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but this is not a bull market that lifts all boats. I am also seeing splits within sectors and industry groups. This is a selective bull market. Large-caps are holding up better in February and small-caps are lagging. The tech sector and Nasdaq 100 are also holding up relatively well, even with the swoon over the last five days.
Market Regime Report/Video – SPX Breadth Holds – S&P 1500 Breadth Lags – 10yr Yield Breaks
Breadth weakened into January as the market corrected, but then rebounded into February with NDX breadth leading the way. S&P 1500 breadth remains the weakest of the three (blame small-caps and mid-caps). This week’s big shift is the breakout in the 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and the break down in the 10-yr Treasury Yield. Lower rates may seem positive for stocks, but
ETF Video – RSP, XLK, XLI Hold the Key – TLT Breaks Out – Healthcare and Biotech
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