Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Weekend Video – Large-caps Continue to Lead, TLT Perks Up, Some Breakouts Holding and Some are Failing (Premium)

ETF Rankings, Signals and Setups Table

Check out the Premium Page (click here) for articles and videos covering trading strategies, seasonality, exits, patterns and more.

Large-caps remain in bull mode with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF leading. Small-caps and micro-caps tell another story with downtrend signals based on StochClose. We have yet to see a flight to safety that could trigger a correction in SPY, but I am watching TLT as it forms a bull flag and UUP as it challenges its March high. In the ETF group, XLI, IFRA, XLB, XLF and ITB are testing their breakouts with throwbacks this week. There are a few tech-related ETFs with oversold setups (SMH, SOXX, CIBR, FDN). On the negative side, there were several failed breakouts as SLX, XME, COPX, MOO and CARZ fell below their breakout zones.

Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • It’s Still a Large-cap World
  • SPY Channels Higher
  • QQQ Remains Near 52-week High
  • Small and Micro Caps are in Downtrends
  • Mid-caps are Caught in the Middle
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Yield Spreads Widen from Low Levels
  • Feb Balance Sheet Hits Yet another New High
  • TLT Forms Bull Flag
  • Seasonal Patterns for Stocks and Bonds
  • Gold Remains in Downtrend, but Flies a Small Flag
  • Dollar challenges March High
  • Oil Becomes Oversold in Support Zone

ETF Highlights

  • ETF Ranking, Trend Signals and Oversold Setups Table
  • Broad Strength within Sector SPDRs
  • 10 ETFs with Momo Comp Oversold
  • XLK, XLV and XLC Lead the Big Sectors
  • Utes, Staples and REITs also Leading
  • XLF, XLI, IFRA and XLB Test Breakout Zones (trigger stops)
  • SOXX, SMH and FIVG Pullback to 50-day SMAs
  • FDN Gets StochRSI Pop
  • FINX Holds Breakout and ATR Trailing Stop
  • CIBR Forms Bull Flag
  • Adjusted Stop Strategy for KRE and KBE
  • REZ Forms Bullish Wedge
  • StochClose Bearish for Energy Related ETFs
  • Copper ETFs Fail and Trigger Bearish
  • Steel ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts (MOO too)
  • RSI versus the Momentum Composite (IYZ)
  • EV ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts (become oversold)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Junk Bond Spreads Widen, Small and Micro Caps Underperform, Energy Related ETFs Fail to Bounce (Premium)

By

Today’s commentary will look at the recent widening in Junk bond spreads because this widening shows less confidence in corporate bonds with the highest risk. We are also seeing some risk aversion in the stock market because small-caps are lagging large-caps. Small-caps represent higher

Junk Bond Spreads Widen, Small and Micro Caps Underperform, Energy Related ETFs Fail to Bounce (Premium) Read More »

Stock/Bond Ratio Turns, Gold Follows TLT Lower, Oil Hits Support with a Bang and the Dollar Remains Rangebound (Premium)

By

The stock market environment is bullish and we are seeing a rotation within the stock market. Yield spreads are edging up, but so is the Fed balance sheet. Elsewhere, we are seeing more risk appetite when looking at the stock/bond ratio. The recent breakdown in bonds appears

Stock/Bond Ratio Turns, Gold Follows TLT Lower, Oil Hits Support with a Bang and the Dollar Remains Rangebound (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Signs of Rotation, Old Economy ETFs Start to Lead, Prior Leaders Start to Lag, SPY Doesn’t Care (Premium)

By

Signs of rotation kicked in with a big surge in the 10-yr yield and the rotations continued over the past week. We are seeing leadership from the groups that lagged from May to July. These are ETFs related to finance, industrials, materials and housing. ETFs related to tech and healthcare led the market from May to July and these groups could be poised

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Signs of Rotation, Old Economy ETFs Start to Lead, Prior Leaders Start to Lag, SPY Doesn’t Care (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Big Moves in Bonds, Gold and the Dollar trigger Signs of Rotation within Stock Market (Premium)

By

Signs of rotation suddenly appeared in the markets with the Treasury bond ETFs falling sharply and the 10-yr yield surging. The Dollar followed yields higher, while the Gold SPDR followed bonds lower. Within the stock market, we saw strength in banks lift small-caps and weakness in XLY and XLK weigh on the S&P 500 SPDR. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 EW

Weekend Video – Big Moves in Bonds, Gold and the Dollar trigger Signs of Rotation within Stock Market (Premium) Read More »

Treasury bond ETFs, Gold and Dollar Battle 200-day SMAs – Oil and SPY Remain Firmly Above Rising 200-day SMAs (Premium)

By

This report covers the intermarket arena: oil, bonds, gold and the Dollar. In particular, the 200-day SMAs are in play for the Treasury Bond ETFs, the 10-yr Treasury Yield, the Gold SPDR and the Dollar Bullish ETF. The Treasury bond ETFs and Dollar are just above their FALLING 200-day SMAs, and the Gold

Treasury bond ETFs, Gold and Dollar Battle 200-day SMAs – Oil and SPY Remain Firmly Above Rising 200-day SMAs (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – S&P 500 Continue to Lead, Finance and Industrial SPDRs Battle for Breakouts, EV ETFs Take the Lead Again (Premium)

By

Tech, Healthcare, Communication Services, REITs and Water are leading the market since mid May. ETFs related to Finance, Industrials, Materials and Energy corrected in June and July. Some made bids to end these corrections (Housing, Copper, Steel) and some are struggling to get above resistance (XLI, XLF). Downtrends in the Regional Bank ETF

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – S&P 500 Continue to Lead, Finance and Industrial SPDRs Battle for Breakouts, EV ETFs Take the Lead Again (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Correction Concerns vs Signals, Materials Related ETFs Break Out, XLI and XLF Stall at Resistance (Premium)

By

SPY and QQQ eked out new highs this week and IWM even bounced. However, IWM is still down over 5% the last twenty weeks and seriously lagging the other two, which are up double digits. Despite continued strength in SPY, there are some concerns brewing under the surface. Yield spreads edged up, S&P 500 breadth is

Weekend Video – Correction Concerns vs Signals, Materials Related ETFs Break Out, XLI and XLF Stall at Resistance (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Another Rotation, Groups with Corrective Patterns, IWM Bounces off Support (Premium)

By

Is the market poised for another rotation? I posed this question last Friday with analysis of the 10-yr Treasury yield, which fell sharply from mid May to mid July (1.7 to 1.2 percent). During this time, SPY continued its grind higher and tech-related ETFs surged with double digit advances.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Another Rotation, Groups with Corrective Patterns, IWM Bounces off Support (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead as IWM Holds Support, Lots of Wedge/Channel Corrections and a Couple of Breakouts (Premium)

By

Today’s video starts with new highs in SPY and QQQ, and the extended trading range in IWM. Large-caps, large-cap techs and healthcare are leading the market, while small-caps, industrials, finance and others are lagging. Even though several groups are lagging because they declined the last one to three months, many formed falling wedge

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead as IWM Holds Support, Lots of Wedge/Channel Corrections and a Couple of Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Gold Hits Make or Break Level, TLT Retraces Half of Prior Decline and Bank ETFs Follow the 10-yr Yield (Premium)

By

The Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced in July and hit a make or break resistance zone. Overall, the long-term trend is down for GLD. Price is below the 200-day, the 200-day is falling and StochClose is bearish. Price is also moving from the upper left to the lower right of the chart. Shorter term, GLD bounced off the 67% retracement line and broken resistance in July

Gold Hits Make or Break Level, TLT Retraces Half of Prior Decline and Bank ETFs Follow the 10-yr Yield (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Divided Market Since May, Tech and Healthcare Extended, Others Still Correcting (Premium)

By

The rodeo is in town as the S&P 500 SPDR fell 2.25% on Friday-Monday and surged 2.25% on Tuesday-Wednesday. Despite the same percentage moves, a 2.25% advance is not enough to completely erase a 2.25% decline and SPY remains below last Thursday’s close. The gray lines on the chart below show when a two-day 2% advance follows a two-day

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Divided Market Since May, Tech and Healthcare Extended, Others Still Correcting (Premium) Read More »

Scroll to Top