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Weekend Video – Stock/Bond Seasonality, Staples and Utes Lead, Old Economy ETFs Break Out (Premium)

ETF Rankings, Signals and Setups Table

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The stock market remains in bull mode overall with some 84% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMAs. Recent breakouts in equal-weights and mid-caps bode well, but short-term bearish patterns in small-caps and micro-caps should be watched. We are also in a seasonally weak period for stocks and a seasonally strong period for bonds. Several old economy ETFs broke out over the last few weeks and these breakouts are holding. Thus, they are bullish until proven otherwise and we will identify the key levels to watch going forward.

Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • It’s Still a Large-cap World
  • SPY Notches another New High
  • QQQ Remains Near 52-week High
  • Equal-weights and Mid-caps Break Out
  • Small and Micro Caps Form Short-Term Bearish Patterns
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Seasonal Patterns for Stocks and Bonds
  • Yield Spreads Widen from Low Levels
  • Feb Balance Sheet Hits Yet another New High
  • TLT Gets Oversold Bounce as within Bond Market Confusion
  • Gold Swings with Treasury Bonds
  • Dollar Remains Range Bound

ETF Highlights

  • Money Moves into Old Economy Stocks
  • Steady Uptrends: XLRE, IYR, REZ, XLV, PHO
  • Choppy Uptrends: SOXX, SMH, QQQ, XLK, IHI
  • Finance, Industrials and Materials Break Out and Follow Thru
  • Energy SPDR Holds Gap, but Does not Follow Thru
  • Staples and Utes Hit New Highs (Hmm..)
  • Tech ETFs with Triangle Breakouts and Extended Conditions (IGV, CIBR, SKYY)
  • Internet ETF Becomes Short-term Oversold in Uptrend (FDN)
  • Housing ETFs Extend on Breakouts (ITB, XHB)
  • Bank ETFs Extend on Breakouts (KRE, KBE)
  • Biotech ETF Gets Wild after Big Move (IBB)
  • Oil Tests Support Zone
  • Energy ETFs Form Short-term Bearish Pattern (XES, XOP, FCG)
  • COPX Breaks out of Wedge as Copper Consolidates
  • Steel ETFs Follow Through on Breakouts (SLX, XME)
  • Agriculture ETFs Break Out (DBA, MOO)
  • EV ETFs Hold Breakouts (CARZ, DRIV, IDRV)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Stock/Bond Ratio Turns, Gold Follows TLT Lower, Oil Hits Support with a Bang and the Dollar Remains Rangebound (Premium)

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The stock market environment is bullish and we are seeing a rotation within the stock market. Yield spreads are edging up, but so is the Fed balance sheet. Elsewhere, we are seeing more risk appetite when looking at the stock/bond ratio. The recent breakdown in bonds appears

Stock/Bond Ratio Turns, Gold Follows TLT Lower, Oil Hits Support with a Bang and the Dollar Remains Rangebound (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Signs of Rotation, Old Economy ETFs Start to Lead, Prior Leaders Start to Lag, SPY Doesn’t Care (Premium)

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Signs of rotation kicked in with a big surge in the 10-yr yield and the rotations continued over the past week. We are seeing leadership from the groups that lagged from May to July. These are ETFs related to finance, industrials, materials and housing. ETFs related to tech and healthcare led the market from May to July and these groups could be poised

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Signs of Rotation, Old Economy ETFs Start to Lead, Prior Leaders Start to Lag, SPY Doesn’t Care (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Big Moves in Bonds, Gold and the Dollar trigger Signs of Rotation within Stock Market (Premium)

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Signs of rotation suddenly appeared in the markets with the Treasury bond ETFs falling sharply and the 10-yr yield surging. The Dollar followed yields higher, while the Gold SPDR followed bonds lower. Within the stock market, we saw strength in banks lift small-caps and weakness in XLY and XLK weigh on the S&P 500 SPDR. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 EW

Weekend Video – Big Moves in Bonds, Gold and the Dollar trigger Signs of Rotation within Stock Market (Premium) Read More »

Treasury bond ETFs, Gold and Dollar Battle 200-day SMAs – Oil and SPY Remain Firmly Above Rising 200-day SMAs (Premium)

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This report covers the intermarket arena: oil, bonds, gold and the Dollar. In particular, the 200-day SMAs are in play for the Treasury Bond ETFs, the 10-yr Treasury Yield, the Gold SPDR and the Dollar Bullish ETF. The Treasury bond ETFs and Dollar are just above their FALLING 200-day SMAs, and the Gold

Treasury bond ETFs, Gold and Dollar Battle 200-day SMAs – Oil and SPY Remain Firmly Above Rising 200-day SMAs (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – S&P 500 Continue to Lead, Finance and Industrial SPDRs Battle for Breakouts, EV ETFs Take the Lead Again (Premium)

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Tech, Healthcare, Communication Services, REITs and Water are leading the market since mid May. ETFs related to Finance, Industrials, Materials and Energy corrected in June and July. Some made bids to end these corrections (Housing, Copper, Steel) and some are struggling to get above resistance (XLI, XLF). Downtrends in the Regional Bank ETF

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – S&P 500 Continue to Lead, Finance and Industrial SPDRs Battle for Breakouts, EV ETFs Take the Lead Again (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Correction Concerns vs Signals, Materials Related ETFs Break Out, XLI and XLF Stall at Resistance (Premium)

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SPY and QQQ eked out new highs this week and IWM even bounced. However, IWM is still down over 5% the last twenty weeks and seriously lagging the other two, which are up double digits. Despite continued strength in SPY, there are some concerns brewing under the surface. Yield spreads edged up, S&P 500 breadth is

Weekend Video – Correction Concerns vs Signals, Materials Related ETFs Break Out, XLI and XLF Stall at Resistance (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Another Rotation, Groups with Corrective Patterns, IWM Bounces off Support (Premium)

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Is the market poised for another rotation? I posed this question last Friday with analysis of the 10-yr Treasury yield, which fell sharply from mid May to mid July (1.7 to 1.2 percent). During this time, SPY continued its grind higher and tech-related ETFs surged with double digit advances.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Another Rotation, Groups with Corrective Patterns, IWM Bounces off Support (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead as IWM Holds Support, Lots of Wedge/Channel Corrections and a Couple of Breakouts (Premium)

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Today’s video starts with new highs in SPY and QQQ, and the extended trading range in IWM. Large-caps, large-cap techs and healthcare are leading the market, while small-caps, industrials, finance and others are lagging. Even though several groups are lagging because they declined the last one to three months, many formed falling wedge

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Lead as IWM Holds Support, Lots of Wedge/Channel Corrections and a Couple of Breakouts (Premium) Read More »

Gold Hits Make or Break Level, TLT Retraces Half of Prior Decline and Bank ETFs Follow the 10-yr Yield (Premium)

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The Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced in July and hit a make or break resistance zone. Overall, the long-term trend is down for GLD. Price is below the 200-day, the 200-day is falling and StochClose is bearish. Price is also moving from the upper left to the lower right of the chart. Shorter term, GLD bounced off the 67% retracement line and broken resistance in July

Gold Hits Make or Break Level, TLT Retraces Half of Prior Decline and Bank ETFs Follow the 10-yr Yield (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Divided Market Since May, Tech and Healthcare Extended, Others Still Correcting (Premium)

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The rodeo is in town as the S&P 500 SPDR fell 2.25% on Friday-Monday and surged 2.25% on Tuesday-Wednesday. Despite the same percentage moves, a 2.25% advance is not enough to completely erase a 2.25% decline and SPY remains below last Thursday’s close. The gray lines on the chart below show when a two-day 2% advance follows a two-day

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – A Divided Market Since May, Tech and Healthcare Extended, Others Still Correcting (Premium) Read More »

Major index ETFs Become Short-term Oversold, Three Medium-term Issues to Watch going Forward (Premium)

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Stocks were hit pretty hard the last few weeks with small-caps leading the way. The recent outsized declines created short-term oversold conditions that could lead to a mean-reversion bounce in the coming days. However, there are some medium-term issues that point to a corrective period in the coming weeks. Namely

Major index ETFs Become Short-term Oversold, Three Medium-term Issues to Watch going Forward (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups -Big Tech Gets Extended, Small-Growth Breaks Out, Copper ETFs Set Up, Telecom Pops (Premium)

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SPY remains in a steady uptrend, QQQ is leading with a surge to new highs and the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) remains stuck in a consolidation. The deterioration in breadth is affecting mid-caps and small-caps, but not large-cap tech driven ETFs, such as SPY and QQQ. Small-caps, however, got a big bounce on Friday. I am not quite ready to call for a small-cap revival, but I am watching

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups -Big Tech Gets Extended, Small-Growth Breaks Out, Copper ETFs Set Up, Telecom Pops (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Continue to Lead, Gold Pops, Commodity-Related ETFs form Bullish Setups (Premium)

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Today’s video starts with SPY and its grind higher. Large-cap techs are leading QQQ higher and these stocks are also contributing to the gains in SPY. Mid-caps and small-caps continue to stall as medium-term breadth indicators deteriorate. The big tech-related ETFs are strong, but extended.

Weekend Video – SPY and QQQ Continue to Lead, Gold Pops, Commodity-Related ETFs form Bullish Setups (Premium) Read More »

QQQ and Techs Lift SPY, Mid-caps and Small-caps Continue Correction, Breadth Deteriorates to September-October Levels (Premium)

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The big trends remain up, but medium-term breadth and price action suggest that we are currently in a corrective period. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, mid-caps and small-caps got the correction memo, but large-cap techs, SPY and QQQ did not. Healthcare stocks are also holding up well and contributing to strength in SPY.

QQQ and Techs Lift SPY, Mid-caps and Small-caps Continue Correction, Breadth Deteriorates to September-October Levels (Premium) Read More »

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