Weekend Video and Chartbook – Weight of the Evidence versus Signs of Excess, Breakouts and Gaps Holding, Bonds and Gold Underperforming

Today’s video starts with the bullish evidence because we are clearly in a bull market. SPY (large-caps) and IWM (small-caps) hit new highs, the last ROC shock was bullish, the breadth models are bullish and a array of ETFs broke out of bullish continuation patterns this week. Even though the bulk of the evidence is bullish, we cannot let our guard down because there are some signs of excess that could hamper the bulls (%Above 200-day, AAII, massive gaps). We then turn to the ETF chartbook to highlight these breakouts, a few new StochClose signals and leading commodity groups. The Dollar and TLT are two of the weakest ETFs since August and three fan lines define the downtrend in GLD.

ETF ChartNotes
Saturday, 14 November 2020

  • New highs: MDY, IWM, XLI, XLV, IPAY, PBW, XBI
  • Higher highs and uptrend: XLY, SOXX, FINX, XRT, TAN
  • Long Ascending Triangle and Breakout: RSP, IJR, HYG
  • Medium-term Ascending Triangle: IGV, FDN
  • Medium-term Triangle and Breakout: SPY, XLC, XLB, XME, SLV
  • Challenging upper line of Triangle: QQQ, XLK, IBB
  • Long Triangle and Breakout: XLF, KIE, REZ, REM, ITA
  • Falling Channel Breakout: XLP, XLU, DBE
  • Flat Consolidation within Uptrend: SKYY, ITB
  • Flat Consolidation and Breakout: DBA
  • Falling Channel within Uptrend: HACK
  • Falling Wedge Breakout and Above 200-day: KRE, MJ, LQD
  • Long Triangle and Challenging Resistance: XLRE
  • Falling Wedge Breakout, Below 200-day: XLE, XES, XOP, AMLP, FCG
  • Downtrend since August: TLT, TIP, AGG, GLD
  • Triangle Break within Downtrend: UUP

Here is a link to an article and video explaining the ATR Trailing Stop and how to chart it on TradingView.

Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

Scroll to Top