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The S&P 500 is in the midst of a modest oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. Counter-trend bounces are part of the process and I have yet to see enough strength to suggest that
Almost everything is bouncing, but not everything is leading. Stocks forged a massive one day reversal on October 13th as SPY opened around 349 and closed near 366 for a 2.6% gain on the day. The move from open to close was +4.8%. Stocks followed through on this reversal day with further
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up around 7% the last two weeks and we are starting to see short-term overbought indications. Overbought, keep in mind, is a double-edged sword. Overbought suggests that the advance is getting over extended and the bigger downtrend could take over soon
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads are elevated and the overall environment for stocks is bearish. SPY became quite oversold in late September and early October, and then turned choppy in October. The latest October swing is
It’s a bit of a mess out there, both fundamentally and technically. Technically, we have new lows in Chinese stock indexes after sharp declines on Monday, and the major US and European indexes are in downtrends. The major index ETFs here in the US became oversold in late September
The seasonal patterns for October and yearend are quite positive, but seasonality is just one aspect of broad market analysis and the weight of the evidence remains bearish.
Tape and Fed Outweigh Seasonality (Free) Read More »
Stocks are attempting to firm here in October, but any firmness would be a consolidation within a bigger downtrend and any bounce would be considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend.
The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish, yield spreads remain elevated and the overall environment for stocks remains bearish. Price action in the major index ETFs turned choppy and volatile the last few weeks, but this is considered noise within a larger downtrend. September and October
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend, but in the midst of a oversold bounce, which started with the outside reversal day on Thursday. SPY started this bounce after a 52-week low so this is still considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. Stocks
Today’s report is a motley mix of ETFs. Only two are in actual uptrends (biotech and the Dollar). The Trend Composites for the clean energy ETFs turned negative on Wednesday so these are clearly out of the picture now. While many ETFs broke their summer lows in September and broke their late September lows in October, some held above both of these lows
The macro environment continues to dominate as stocks moved opposite the Dollar and Treasury bonds. The Dollar Bullish ETF and 10-yr Treasury Yield turned back up the last four days and the S&P 500 fell sharply. The long-term trend for all three
Stocks did the old pop and drop with the market surging Monday-Tuesday last week and then falling the next four days. Many ETFs moved to new lows, but some managed to hold above last week’s lows. Several tech and bond related ETFs hit fresh 52-week lows, which
The pickings are extremely thin in the markets because the vast majority of groups are in downtrends. TrendInvestorPro tracks trend signals in 274 ETFs. This list include 170 stock-based ETFs, 18 fixed income ETFs
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Stocks got a big oversold bounce the first two days of October, but I am treating it as a counter-trend move within a bigger downtrend and bear market. Adding fuel for the bulls, the Dollar
Stocks got a big bounce the last two days, but this is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend. SPY, QQQ and IWM fell sharply the last two weeks of September and were ripe for such a bounce. Overall, the
The Dollar finally took a breather from its rapid ascent with a four day pullback and we also saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield fall from around 4% to 3.6%. The Dollar represents the risk-off trade so the pullback facilitated a bounce in
Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of
Bear Markets and the 20% Threshold (Free) Read More »
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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish with all five inputs negative and yield spreads are on the rise as the CCC spread widened to a new high. Taken together, this means the Market Regime is bearish for stocks and risk is above average. Bonds and gold do not offer alternatives
The bears remain in control of the stock market and they are expanding their territory with breakdowns in energy, a clean energy and biotech. Stock-based ETFs are still part of the market and this became abundantly clear as all stock based ETFs in the ETF Master List fell over the last
