Systematic Strategies and Next Level Technical Analysis
Chartists can find leaders by ranking ETF performance in ATR multiples, and there is even an indicator for that. Normalized-ROC puts point performance in ATR multiples and we can compare these values against others. Current Normalized-ROC
Finding the Leaders with ATR Momentum (Free) Read More »
Even though the Composite Breadth Model is bullish, the market is as split as ever. The Trend Composite is positive for SPY and QQQ, but negative for the S&P 500 EW ETF, S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF. Within the S&P 500, large-cap techs are leading and keeping SPY afloat. I am wary because
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The Composite Breadth Model is bullish, but there are some serious pockets of weakness within the market. Namely, small-caps, high-beta ETFs and tech-related ETFs. Selling pressure increased on Tuesday and many ETFs broke their early April lows to reverse their upswings
The weight of the evidence is largely bullish for stocks, but it is clearly a tale of two markets. Large-caps and high-quality stocks are holding up better than small-caps and high-beta stocks. We are also seeing money move into defensive groups with leadership coming from healthcare,
The Composite Breadth Model is bullish, but the market is quite split and I am focused on the swings of late. In particular, the upswing since mid March. Large-caps and high-quality
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Large-caps are leading with the S&P 500 SPDR nearing its early February high. Small-caps are still lagging because the Russell 2000 ETF remains well below this high. Despite relative
Overbought and oversold conditions are tricky because stocks can become overbought/oversold and remain overbought/oversold as the move continues. This is why traders need another indicator
Today’s report starts with analysis using the McClellan Oscillator. We will look at three different periods to see how the signals work in different market environments. Most recently, this indicator became overbought two weeks ago.
The Composite Breadth Model is bullish at +5, but there are splits when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the different indexes and yield spreads. Small-caps are underperforming and the CCC spread shows stress at the low end of the bond market.
Stocks surged from mid March to early April and this created short-term overbought conditions for SPY, XLK and QQQ. Large-cap tech and high-quality stocks led the rally. Small-caps and high-beta stocks lagged the market during this advance, but
Breadth is holding up for Nasdaq 100 stocks, but deteriorating for S&P 500 stocks and I view this as a warning sign for the stock market. Breadth indicators measure the degree of participation. For example, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks
Waning Participation within a Key Benchmark Could Spell Trouble (Free) Read More »
The Composite Breadth Model is bullish and at +5, but I would characterize this as a fragile +5. Today’s video will dive into the five inputs that make up the model and show why the +5 looks fragile. SPY and QQQ are in uptrends and continue to lead, but the equal-weight S&P 500 and IWM are in downtrends
It remains a tale of two markets. Large-caps and large-cap techs are leading, while small-caps are lagging. The chart below shows QQQ exceeding its early March high in mid March and SPY exceeding this high last week. IWM remains some 7% below this high. The performance differentials since March 1st are also large. QQQ is up 9%, SPY
The stock market is mixed, very mixed. The tape is bearish because the Composite Breadth Model is negative, but large-caps are holding up because the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is above the 200-day SMA. Yield spreads remain elevated and show stress
Strength in the stock market is narrow, which means a handful of stocks are keeping the market afloat. Put another way, weakness within the stock market is broad-based, which means the majority of stocks are under pressure. We can see this in the breadth indicators and the small-cap ETFs. SPY and QQQ are
Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the
Will the Generals follow the Troops? (Free) Read More »
Today’s report will dive into the market filter, which is used to define bull and bear markets. Market filters are an important part of trend-following and momentum strategies that trade stocks and stock-based ETFs. The Composite Breadth Model has not worked well over the last 15 months, but this is a relatively short timeframe in the grand scheme
The technical picture shows a split market and the fundamental picture is also split. Large-cap techs are leading and the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA for the S&P 500. However, small-caps remain weak and the Composite Breadth Model is at -3. The Fed came to
The market went through some serious rotations over the last few months. The Finance sector led the market off the October low and then fell apart over the last four weeks. Healthcare and the defensive groups led the market from early October to
