Market/ETF Video – Composite Breadth Model hits Make or Break Point, Bonds Break Down, More Sectors in Downtrends than Uptrends  (Premium)

The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and SPY is in a long-term downtrend, but the short-term trend is up and has yet to reverse. Today’s video will mark some short-term support levels to watch for a few key ETFs and the line-in-the-sand for a short-term breadth indicator. We are seeing sharp counter-trend bounces in a

We are seeing more bullish Trend Composite signals, but the weight of the evidence remains bearish for stocks. Of the 274 ETFs in the master list, there are 22 ETFs (13%) with positive Trend Composites (uptrends) and 152 (87%) with downtrends. The uptrend signals are

Today’s report starts with some short-term breadth indicators. One of the three triggered a bullish breadth thrust, but the other two have yet to show the upside participation needed for a thrust signal. They have yet to cross that line and are actually looking short-term

Stocks surged in July and this surge was enough to trigger a bullish breadth thrust in the S&P 500. However, we have seen this movie before with bullish breadth thrusts that failed in late March and late May. The Composite Breadth Model needs more than just a bullish breadth thrust to turn the corner. Elsewhere, yield spreads

Despite a big advance in June, the Market Regime remains bearish and risk is above average for stock-based ETFs. In addition, the Trend Composite is negative for the vast majority of stock-based ETFs. A few ETFs related to clean energy, fossil fuels, consumer staples,

Today’s report will update Dow Theory analysis from last month, recall an old adage from Marty Zweig and show that only two assets are holding up. The Dollar remains very strong, which means the opposing

The Composite Breadth Model remains in bear mode, yield spreads show stress in the bond market and the major index ETFs are in downtrends. Other groups are not picking up the slack because most precious metals, industrial

Stocks became oversold after a sharp decline in June and the bounced to varying degrees. Some of these bounces were quite sharp (ITB, IBB) and some ETFs simply consolidated (SPY, KRE). Almost all ETFs are in downtrends and this means the bounces are considered counter-trend

After becoming very oversold in mid June, the major index ETFs are in the midst of oversold bounces or consolidations over the last three weeks. Predicting the extend of a bounce is tricky, but the current bounce since mid

Cracks in the stock market began to appear in the second half of 2021 and spread to large-caps in early 2022. Defensive groups within the stock market were holding up, but got hit hard in June. Industrial metals and agricultural commodities were holding

My screen for today’s price action is a sea of red right now. Stock futures are modestly lower, energy futures are lower, gold is slightly lower, industrial metals are sharply lower and agricultural commodities are sharply lower. The US Dollar Index is the only thing higher and it is trading at a new high

Today’s report to put trend and volatility together so we can identify the best conditions, the worst conditions and the questionable conditions. Most of us know that current conditions are the worst for stocks because we are in a bear market with high volatility. We will chart volatility to show when it is deemed high and

Weakness is widespread throughout the stock market, and other markets. The Composite Breadth Model is and remains bearish. fewer than 20% of S&P 1500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. Almost all stock-based ETFs are in downtrends and most of the alternative ETFs are also in downtrends (bonds, gold, silver, the