Education for Systematic Strategies and Technical Analysis
This report is an update for the Trend Composite and StochClose Rank Strategy that trades ETFs in the All-Weather List during bull and bear markets. Examining recent performance and signals can
Stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading at or near new highs lead with clear uptrends. These are the names you’d want on your ChartLists or portfolio. You can find leaders by checking the list of
Find the Strongest Price Charts with the StochClose Rank (Free) Read More »
Stocks corrected throughout February and many ETFs are setting up with pullback patterns taking shape. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is testing its 200-day SMA after a pullback the last four weeks. QQQ broke
February has been a tough month for stocks and the vast majority of ETFs. The S&P 500 peaked on February 2nd and is down around 4.6% the last 16 days. All sector SPDRs are down over this period with
The stock market has been a tough place for trend-following since January 2022, which is when the S&P 500 first triggered a bearish trend signal. The bearish signal in question is the humble
Should we Keep Paying Attention to Trend Signals after Whipsaws? (Free) Read More »
Broad market timing is important because the state of the stock market is the single biggest influence on stocks and stock-based ETFs. The odds are in our favor during bull markets and stacked against us during bear markets.
The weight of the evidence is technically bullish for the stock market, but the bears fired a shot across the bow as SPY and other key ETFs broke short-term support levels. Many ETFs were consolidating with falling flags, falling wedges or
Stocks surged in January and then moved into pullback mode here in February. As such, many ETFs formed falling flags, falling wedges or other short-term corrective patterns over the last three weeks. This includes the big three: SPY, QQQ and IWM. The market is in corrective mode as long as
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is a period of big swings and above average volatility. There were six swings of at least 10% from late January to early February 2023. Looking at other 12-14 month periods, this
Year of the Big Swing and Month of the Small Flag (Free) Read More »
The weight of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but rates are rising again and stock market volatility is above average. Rising rates are putting a bid in the Dollar and weighing on gold. Tech, housing and retail related
The weight of the evidence is bullish for stocks. The CBM is positive, SPY broke out of a big falling wedge and QQQ broke double bottom resistance. Short-term, stocks surged in 2023 with the
The stock market moved from a defensive and risk-off bias in 2022 to an offensive and risk-on bias in 2023. Tech, high-beta and consumer discretionary ETFs are leading in 2023 with some of the biggest moves year-to-date. Many became overbought in early
Stocks went on a tear from late December to early February with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) advancing some 11% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with
Pullbacks within Uptrends Create Opportunities (Free) Read More »
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on January 31st, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong across the board and yields spreads are trending lower (narrowing). This makes the Market Regime bullish for stocks. The only caveat
High-beta and risk-on ETFs are leading the market here in 2023 with big surges the last five weeks. Many triggered bullish trend signals, but they are also short-term overbought and ripe for a rest. Conversely, low-beta
The Composite Breadth Model turned positive and hit its highest level since January 2022. This means the weight of the evidence turned bullish for stocks. Narrowing yield spreads show increasing confidence
Stocks surged in January and this surge pushed the Composite Breadth Model to a make or break level. The same goes for SPY and QQQ. The CMB was very close to turning bullish last week, while SPY and QQQ were close to breaking above their resistance zones
The Composite Breadth Model improved, but remains negative and the market is at a critical level. A critical level means we are at a moment of truth or a make or break point. One more push higher would turn the CBM positive and trigger a big wedge
2023 is starting with a bang as the high-beta groups outperform. High-beta groups are the same as risk-on groups and offensive groups. The 2022 leaders,
The S&P 500 has been trending lower since the peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and
SPY Has a Clear Level to Beat (Free) Read More »
