Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups

Market/ETF Video – Price and Breadth Thrusts, the Real ETF Leaders, Commodity ETFs Still Strong, PALL Pullback, KRE Setup (Premium)

Market Regime
ETF Trend Signals

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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. Analysis, then turns to ETF charts with leading uptrends, emerging trends and setups.

       Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Bullish Breadth Thrusts in SPX and NDX
  • Four Price Thrusts in Four Years (plus 2011)
  • SPY Exceeds February High with Candle in Star Position
  • QQQ Enters Potential Reversal Zone
  • Yield Spreads Remain Elevated
  • TLT Remains Near 52-week Lows
    Junk Bond ETF Breaks Out of Small Wedge
  • GLD and SLV Battle Support Zone from Prior Breakouts
  • UUP Turns Choppy within Uptrend

      ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • The Real Leaders are Hitting New Highs (XLU, PBJ, IFRA, DVY, KIE)
  • Oil Turns Volatile, but Remains in Clear Uptrend
  • Energy-Related ETFs Hold Flag Breakouts (XLE, FCG, XOP, XES)
  • Steel and Agribusiness Get Extended, but Still Leading (MOO, XME, SLX)
  • Palladium Hits Reversal Zone (PALL)
  • Agriculture, Base Metals and Copper ETFs Hold Strong (DBA, DBB, CPER)
  • Uranium and Rare Metals ETFs Hold Breakouts (URA, REMX)
  • Cybersecurity ETF Exceeds December High (CIBR)
    Networking and Semiconductor ETFs Breakout of Wedges (IGN, SOXX)
  • Residential REIT ETF Leads REITs Higher (REZ)
  • Aerospace & Defense ETFs Hold their Big Breakouts (ITA, PPA, XAR)
  • XLV and XLB Extend on Wedge Breakouts with Choppy Uptrends
  • Regional Bank ETF Sets Up within Choppy Uptrend (KRE)
  • Flag and Pennant Breakouts for High Beta ETFs (IWM, IWO, QQQJ)
  • Tech ETFs Get Flag Breakouts within Downtrends (SKYY, FINX, FDN, IPAY, IGV, IBB)
  • Clean Energy ETF Maintains Upswing with Bigger Correction (PBW)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table

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The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.

Trend Composite Strategy (part 7) – Trend-Momo AllW50 BB ETF Strategy, the Nature of Trend-Following, Live Example with Signal/Ranking Table Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Mean Reversion Timeframe versus Trend Reversing Timeframe, 7 Themes to Keep in Mind (Premium)

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It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are

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Weekend Video – Biggest Moves since Nov-2020, Small-caps Lag, Hard Throwbacks for Oil, Gold and Metals (Premium)

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Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives

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Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.

Trend Composite Strategy (Part 5) – All Weather List, Cross versus In-State Signals, Bear Market Alternatives Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium)

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It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Short-term Volatility is a Challenge, but it Does not Change Existing Trends (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators

Weekend Video – Breadth Deteriorates, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodities Turn Volatile, Very Few Uptrends in Stock-Related ETFs (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium)

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The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Volatility and Bear Markets, Perspective on the Sharp Bounce in Stocks and Decline in Commodities (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium)

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This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered.

Weekend Video – Weight of Evidence is Bearish, Defensive Groups Shine, Some Commodities Go Parabolic (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model remains bearish and the S&P 500 SPDR is in a downtrend since the January breakdown. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) held up a little better than SPY in January-February, but remains short of a resistance breakout that would negate the January breakdown. In short, the trends

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Retail Trends Lower, Finance Looks Vulnerable, Breakouts in Defense, Uranium and Steel (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium)

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Stocks staged a big intraday reversal on Thursday and followed through on Friday with strong breadth (one day). The two-day sequence is impressive, but not enough to undo the technical damage done the last two months (%Above 200-day, bearish breadth thrusts, expanding new low list). In addition, yield spreads continued to widen and show rising stress

Weekend Video – Two Day Reversal vs 2022 Technical Damage, Yield Spreads Widen, Commodity-Related ETFs Still Leading (Premium) Read More »

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium)

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The markets are getting rattled with big moves after the invasion of Ukraine, but these moves are in the direction of existing trends. Oil, industrial metals, gold and agriculture were already in market leading uptrends. They are also up strong today. SPY, QQQ and many ETFs were already in downtrends after impulse declines in January. There were oversold bounces in February, but

Mkt/ETF Commentary – Big Moves in the Direction of Existing Trends, Commodities Up, Stocks Down, Dollar and Gold Up (Premium) Read More »

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