Today we are going to dive into the subjective world of chart analysis. The weight of the evidence is bearish for stocks, but it is not overwhelmingly bearish because the S&P 500 breadth models are still net bullish. The market is quite divided and this is why SPY has been flat since September. The January-March decline
The weight of the evidence for the stock market remains more bearish that bullish. More stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above, volatility is above average for SPY and the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 SPDR and the S&P 500 EW ETF are trying to forge short-term reversals with big moves on Tuesday.
The broad market environment for stocks is more bearish than bullish. The Composite Breadth Model is negative, more stocks are below their 200-day SMAs than above and the S&P 500 is below its 200-day. Also note that yield spreads are rising again, offensive groups are lagging and defensive groups are leading.
There are often crosscurrents in the market and these can create confusion. For example, the Trend Composite for SPY is positive, but the 5-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. On the price chart, SPY appears to be in a downtrend in 2022, but there is a short-term bullish
The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bearish as the 5-day SMA for SPX crossed below the 200-day SMA. Despite whipsaws in the model, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA and High-Low Percent paint a picture of weakness in 2022. SPY and RSP may be holding up, but the
Weakness under the surface and weakness within the Nasdaq 100 is weighing on the S&P 500, which cracked again. The weight of the evidence was already bearish for small-caps, mid-caps and
The broad market ETFs were hit with selling pressure on Wednesday with growth oriented groups leading the way lower. SPY fell 1%, QQQ was down 2.17%, the Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5% and the Russell 2000 Growth ETF was down 1.88%. In contrast, groups associated
The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish, but the stock market is as split as ever and some key groups are leading the way lower. Large-caps are leading and small-caps are lagging. We are even seeing a serious split
There are large pockets of strength in the stock market, but also large pockets of weakness. In fact, these pockets are almost equal and this is the reason the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since Thanksgiving. The Composite Breadth Model is net bullish and split. The S&P 500 trend model is net bullish
Today’s article is the eighth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. Last week we looked at ATR Trailing Stops and time-based exits, but these did not add much value. Today we will add various profit targets based on percentage gains. The strategy will still sell when/if the Trend
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. Analysis, then turns to the ETFs charts with leading trends, emerging trends and setups.
The market environment is never certain and there are often conflicting signals. It would be easy to say this is one of the most uncertain times ever, but that is probably not the case. There have been plenty of price shocks, global events
The Composite Breadth Model turned bullish on Friday and this means the Market Regime is bullish. This also means the Trend Composite strategy outlined in part five can now choose trend-momentum signals in stock-related ETFs. Please review part five for details on this strategy.
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators,
Today’s article is the sixth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. We will take the strategy a step further by adding an ATR Trailing Stop and a time exit based on the number of bars in the trade. Time exits are similar to, but not exactly the same as, rebalancing.
It as been 18 days since Putin invaded Ukraine and SPY is up 5.32% since the close on Wednesday, February 23rd. QQQ is up 6.3% and IWM is 6.5%. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), an alleged safe-haven, is down 4.6%. While the gains in stocks are
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators, SPY, QQQ, bonds, gold and the Dollar are also covered. The ETF section
Today’s article is the fifth installment of the Trend Composite strategy. The series was put on hold because of recent events and market volatility, but continues today and will complete before the end of the month. Today’s installment uses the highly curated All Weather ETF List, which covers most assets and has minimal overlap.
It is important to remember that the major trends in play right now were in place before Russia invaded Ukraine. High-flying tech stocks were out of favor late last year and remain out of favor. Weakness spread as the Market Regime turned bearish in mid February and remains bearish.
This video starts with broad market analysis and then moves to the individual ETFs. The broad market section includes the Composite Breadth Model, Fed balance sheet and yield spreads. Breadth indicators
The idea was to continue the Trend Composite series today, but the markets are moving fast so I thought I would address yesterday’s big bounce in stocks and the big declines in the commodity related ETFs. These moves did not reverse existing