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Market/ETF Video – 5-day Nears 200-day with Big Falling Wedge, %Above 200-day Indicators Show Strength, Gold Goes Parabolic (Premium)

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Regime
ETF Trend Signals
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Market/ETF Review and Outlook Video

The Composite Breadth Model remains negative, but the market is quite split overall. The 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is very close to crossing above the 200-day SMA, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA is strong and yield spreads are narrowing. There was also a move towards high-beta ETFs in January, as well as a move away from low volatility ETFs. January is clearly risk-on so far and the market is at a moment of truth. One more push higher would turn the Composite Breadth Model positive, move the 5-day SMA above the 200-day and trigger a big wedge breakout in SPY. The Market Regime page highlights these key charts.

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model is Negative
  • %Above 200-day SMA Indicators are Strong
  • Junk and BBB Spreads Reflect Growing Confidence
  • A 12 month Falling Wedge for SPY
  • SPY Becomes short-term Overbought (%Above 20-day)
  • QQQ Bounces within Downtrend
  • IWM Outperforms and Challenges Nov-Dec High
  • TLT Forms Higher Low, but Still in Downtrend
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Corrects after New High
  • Dollar Accelerates Lower as Gold Accelerates Higher
  • US Oil Fund Challenges Resistance  

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups

  • New Uptrend Signals over the last Five Days
  • Low Volatility ETFs Lagging in January: SPLV, XLV, XLP, PBJ, XLU
  • High Beta ETFs Leading in January: ACES, DRIV, SOXX, ESPO, YOLO
  • EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Goes for Breakout (RCD)
  • ETFs with Leading Uptrends: ITB, KIE, PPA, PHO, XME
  • Low Volatility ETFs Pullback after Surging (XLV, XLP, XLU, PBJ)
  • Energy ETFs with Breakouts Working (XLE, XES, AMLP)
  • Energy ETFs with Deeper Corrections (XOP, FCG)
  • Biotech ETFs Break Out (IBB, XBI)
  • Internet, Payments and Semis Challenge Resistance (FDN, IPAY, SOXX)
  • Momentum ETF with Bullish Pullback/Retracement (MTUM)
  • Networking ETF Turns Up within Consolidation (IGN)
  • Technology SPDR Forms Higher Low with Breakout (XLK)
  • Digital Health, Cyber Security and Software with Higher Lows (CIBR, IGV, EDOC)
  • Self-Driving EV Tech ETF Forms Possible Double Bottom (IDRV)
  • Palladium ETF Firms within Downtrend (PALL)
Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!

Market and ETF Report – SPY Becomes Short-term Overbought, Energy ETFs Go for Breakouts, Biotech ETFs Lead (Premium)

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The stock market is quite mixed at the moment. The Composite Breadth Model is negative and the 5-day SMA for the S&P 500 is below the 200-day SMA. The percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA indicators, however, are showing strength within the broader market because they are above 50%. SPY is nearing a moment

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Market and ETF Report – Stocks, Bonds, Gold and the Euro Start Strong, Healthcare Lags, Energy ETFs Set Up (Premium)

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Market and ETF Report – SPY Remains Bearish, Healthcare ETFs Outperforming, Energy ETFs Turn Mixed (Premium)

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Market/ETF Video – Bears are Back, Bonds Follow Stocks, Defensive ETFs Get Hit, Gold Battles 200-day (Premium)

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The Composite Breadth Model turned negative on Monday and the Market Regime is back to bearish. 2022 was year of the whipsaw for the CBM, but whipsaw periods are normal for trend following models and part of the overall process. AAA spreads

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Market and ETF Report – ETFs to Watch for Clues on the Broader Market, Intermarket Relations at Work Now (Premium)

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The weight of the evidence favors the bulls because the Composite Breadth Model is positive, but the stock market is as divided as ever. Today’s report will show three different ETF groups: the lead group holding support, the weak group

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Market/ETF Video – Weight of the Evidence Bullish, Short-term Support Levels to Watch, Tech-Based ETFs Fail at Resistance (Premium)

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Despite some volatility around the CPI report, there is no real change in the market situation. The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The intermarket relationships since

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The Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy Update (part 11) – Performance Update,  A Tough 2022, New Positions in December

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Today’s report will update the Trend-Momo Bull-Bear ETF Strategy that trades the All Weather ETFs. 2022 has been a rough year and there are still two weeks left. The Composite Breadth Model turned positive on November 30th and this means stock-based ETFs became eligible for the strategy.

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Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium)

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The Market Regime for stocks is positive because the Composite Breadth Model is at +1 and yield spreads are narrowing. The short-term uptrend in SPY, key intermarket relationships and some economically important ETFs hold the key going forward

Market/ETF Video – Breadth Thrusts Key to CBM, 10yr Yield Weighs on Dollar and Buoys Stocks, Energy ETFs Oversold (Premium) Read More »

Market and ETF Report – Broad Advance Lifts CBM, Tech and Housing Break Out of Pennant, Metals Surge (Premium)

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Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Some 95% of S&P 500 stocks were up, 96% of Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced and 93% of S&P 1500 stocks gained ground. Tech and high-beta ETFs, which were still the most beaten down, led the way with the biggest gains

Market and ETF Report – Broad Advance Lifts CBM, Tech and Housing Break Out of Pennant, Metals Surge (Premium) Read More »

Market/ETF Video – CBM Hits Make or Break Point, SPY with Short-term Uptrend below 200-day, Key ETFs Near 200-day (Premium)

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The Market Regime for stocks remains bearish, but we saw an improvement in the Composite Breadth Model over the past week as the Thrust Models turned bullish. This puts the CBM close to a bullish signal for the second time in four months.

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Market and ETF Report – SPY Challenges 200-day, 3 Key Groups to Watch, Healthcare and Water Leading (Premium)

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The battles for the 200-day remain in focus for several ETFs. The S&P 500 and some key industry group ETFs surged towards their falling 200-day SMAs. Follow through would trigger a breakout and potential long-term trend reversal, while failure to follow through and short-term reversals

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