Systematic Trading Strategies and Next Level Trading Setups
The table below shows performance metrics for the S&P 500 Rotation Investor Strategy (RO-Investor-SPX) and $SPX buy-and-hold. The strategy outperformed buy-and-hold with a significantly higher Compound Annual Return (CAR): +13.39% vs +7.76% (blue shading). Just as important, the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown
Rotation Investor SPX500 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns Read More »
The table below shows performance metrics for the Rotation Investor Nasdaq 100 Strategy (RO-Investor-NDX) and $NDX buy-and-hold. The strategy handily outperforms buy-and-hold (+18.03% vs +12.97%), and the strategy’s Maximum Drawdown (-21.52%) was less than half that of buy-and-hold
Rotation Investor NDX100 – Performance Metrics, Returns and Drawdowns Read More »
Rotation trading strategies capture the power of momentum by rotating into the strongest stocks and out of stocks that are losing upward momentum. This report explains rotation strategy that trades S&P 500 stocks (RO-Investor-SPX). We cover the trend filter, volatility condition, momentum rank, rotation threshold and exit signals. We also explain the signal/portfolio page and the ranking table.
Rotation Investor SPX500 – Strategy Details, Indicators, Universe, Signals, Tables Read More »
Today’s report covers commodity ETFs and the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), simply because they are leading in 2025. Year-to-date, nine of the top ten performing ETFs are commodity or crypto related. My focus list has 74 ETFs covering equities, commodities, bonds and crypto. The Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the only equity ETF in the top ten right now. The table below shows the 20 ETFs with
Market-ETF Report – Silver and Silver Miners Lead – Copper Pops-Drops – Platinum Surges Read More »
The broad market environment is vitally important to strategies that trade stocks or equity ETFs. Bull and bear markets, however, are not just defined by the trend for the major indexes, such as the S&P 500. Instead, we must look within the indexes and use breadth indicators to quantify the environment for the majority stocks. We are trading individual stocks and equity ETFs, not the indexes. Analyze accordingly.
Broad Breadth Model – Methodology, Indicators, Signals & Performance Read More »
SPY, QQQ and XLK are leading the surge as their gap-breakouts hold. The broader market, however, remains mixed as small-caps and mid-caps lag. New highs are starting to appear with cybersecurity, defense and telecom leading the way. We are also seeing relative strength in blockchain and software. Precious metals remain strong with platinum joining the breakout parade. Copper perked up and Bitcoin is trading near new highs.
Market-ETF Video – SPY/QQQ Hold Gap Breakouts – Tech Leads – Metals Remain Strong Read More »
The broad market environment is mixed, at best, and still bearish at worst. Keep in mind that SPY and QQQ are part of the broad market environment, but they are large-cap driven ETFs that do not always reflect conditions under the surface. Breadth indicators reflect conditions for the average stock. Just over 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 150 and 200 day SMAs. This
Market Regime – ZBT and 5/200 Cross Bullish – Long-term Breadth Mixed Read More »
Here we go again. Negative tariff news on Friday weighed on stocks, and positive tariff news lifted stocks on Monday-Tuesday. Last week’s drop and today’s pop do not change the situation in the markets. SPY and QQQ broke out with gap-surges on May 12th. Even though May 12th represents another tariff-related event, these breakouts and gaps are holding, and bullish until proven otherwise. Short-term, stocks were
Market-ETF Report – Technical Timeline – Gaps Holding – Utes/Infra Breakout as XLI Leads Read More »
The bullish signals stacked up in April and May, but most long-term breadth indicators are still bearish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY and QQQ break
Moving from Thrust Signals to a Bull Market Read More »
PGM stands for the platinum group of metals, which includes ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium and platinum. These metals have similar properties and are usually found together when mining. Palladium is a key metal for catalytic converters, and is also used in electronics and dental alloys. Platinum is mostly used for jewelry, and also for catalytic converters.
Two PGM’s Get Breakouts Read More »
Stocks were hit as SPY fell 1.69%, its largest 1-day decline since April 21st, which was just before the Zweig Breadth Thrust. We do not need to look far for the reasons. First, stocks were short-term overbought after the surge from April 22nd to May 20th. SPY was up over 16% in 20 days. Second, the 30-yr Treasury Yield surged above 5% and hit a new high
Market-ETF Report – Stocks Fall – Gold, Silver, IBIT & Yields Surge – Trailing Stops Read More »
Stocks started improving with the Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th and continued with a bullish 5/200 cross. Despite a strong advance, breadth has yet to expand to levels that signal a bull market. SPY and QQQ are holding their gaps and 200-day SMAs, but short-term overbought after big moves. We will show the key levels to watch. Elsewhere, year-to-date performance highlights the true leaders and metals are perking up.
It seems as if there are conflicting signals in the stock market. The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered bullish on April 24th and the 5/200 Filter Cross triggered bullish on May 15th, but the long-term trend and breadth indicators remain decidedly bearish. NDX %Above 200-day SMA ($NDXA200R) is the only indicator (of 15) to trigger bullish.
Market Regime – Zweig and 5/200 Cross Bullish, but Long-term Breadth net Bearish Read More »
The bullish evidence continues to build, but the long-term breadth indicators have yet to turn net bullish. SPY and QQQ showed signs of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April 24th and several other thrust indicators turned bullish in May. We also saw SPY, QQQ and RSP break their 200-day SMAs. These are bullish indications for large-caps and, perhaps
Market-ETF Report – Large-caps Lead – New Highs in XLI and ITA – Utes Extend on Breakout Read More »
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. In addition, the 5-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA to reverse the bearish trend signal from mid March. The V-Reversal since late March was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but the 5/200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal
Improve Performance with Smoothing, Filters and a Twist – 200-day Cross for SPY/QQQ Read More »
SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are
SPY Recaptures 200-day – Tips to Reduce Whipsaws and Improve Performance Read More »
SPY and QQQ hit their moment of truth in early May – and then powered through their March support breaks with gap-surges on Monday. These were the moves that reversed the long-term downtrends. Even though the long-term breadth indicators have yet to signal a bull market, SPY and QQQ are in uptrends, as our four big sectors. This is clearly positive for stocks, and
Market-ETF Report – Mind the Gap-Surge – Year-to-date Leaders – Four Big Sectors Lead Read More »
Stocks extended after the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals in late April with SPY and QQQ negating their March support breaks. Tech-related ETFs made sharp U-turns with leading moves over the last five weeks. Despite impressive gains, these ETFs are short-term overbought. Elsewhere, gold and silver are consolidating after big gains, IBIT extended on its breakout and ITA hit a new high.
Stocks plunged in historic fashion with long-term breadth indicators reaching extremes in early April. Stocks then surged in historic fashion with a Zweig Breadth Thrust and steep advance. The plunge is like stretching a rubber band and the rebound is the effect of letting go. The further the stretch, the bigger the snap back.
Market Regime – NDX Breadth Leads Bounce – Spreads Narrow – 10yr Yield Holds Breakout Read More »
The thrust continued on Monday with SPY surging 3.3% and the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 50-day SMA hitting its highest level since December 2nd. The chart below shows an update for the S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust strategy. A bullish thrust triggered on April 24th and SPY extended above
