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Improve Performance with Smoothing, Filters and a Twist – 200-day Cross for SPY/QQQ

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SPY Recaptures 200-day – Tips to Reduce Whipsaws and Improve Performance

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SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are

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Market-ETF Report – Mind the Gap-Surge – Year-to-date Leaders – Four Big Sectors Lead

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SPY and QQQ hit their moment of truth in early May – and then powered through their March support breaks with gap-surges on Monday. These were the moves that reversed the long-term downtrends. Even though the long-term breadth indicators have yet to signal a bull market, SPY and QQQ are in uptrends, as our four big sectors. This is clearly positive for stocks, and

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Market-ETF Video – SPY/QQQ Negate Breakdowns – Tech ETFs Lead Rebound – Gold Consolidates

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Stocks extended after the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals in late April with SPY and QQQ negating their March support breaks. Tech-related ETFs made sharp U-turns with leading moves over the last five weeks. Despite impressive gains, these ETFs are short-term overbought. Elsewhere, gold and silver are consolidating after big gains, IBIT extended on its breakout and ITA hit a new high.

Market-ETF Video – SPY/QQQ Negate Breakdowns – Tech ETFs Lead Rebound – Gold Consolidates Read More »

Market Regime – NDX Breadth Leads Bounce – Spreads Narrow – 10yr Yield Holds Breakout

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Stocks plunged in historic fashion with long-term breadth indicators reaching extremes in early April. Stocks then surged in historic fashion with a Zweig Breadth Thrust and steep advance. The plunge is like stretching a rubber band and the rebound is the effect of letting go. The further the stretch, the bigger the snap back.

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Market-ETF Report – Stocks Extend on Thrust Signals – Tech ETFs Lead, but become Overbought

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The thrust continued on Monday with SPY surging 3.3% and the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above their 50-day SMA hitting its highest level since December 2nd. The chart below shows an update for the S&P 1500 Zweig Breadth Thrust strategy. A bullish thrust triggered on April 24th and SPY extended above

Market-ETF Report – Stocks Extend on Thrust Signals – Tech ETFs Lead, but become Overbought Read More »

V Reversals – Capitulation – The V – Interesting Levels vs Bull Markets – Relative Risk

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Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. With the recent gains, SPY is back near the 200-day SMA and 61.8% retracement, which puts this key benchmark at an “interesting” juncture. Interesting? Yes. Bull market? No. What does it take to go from an interesting juncture to a bull market?

V Reversals – Capitulation – The V – Interesting Levels vs Bull Markets – Relative Risk Read More »

Market-ETF Report – Upswings Hold – Defensive ETFs Lead – Updates for GLD, IBIT, UNG, DBA

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SPY and QQQ are in a short-term uptrend that include a Zweig Breadth Thrust on April 24th. Even though the long-term trends and breadth indicators remain bearish, this short-term uptrend remains in play as long as the wedges rise in SPY and QQQ. As noted in these first charts, I am looking for confirmation from S&P 1500 Percent Above 50-day SMA ($SUPA50R) as the

Market-ETF Report – Upswings Hold – Defensive ETFs Lead – Updates for GLD, IBIT, UNG, DBA Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Long-term Breadth vs Thrusts – Wedges and Overbought in Downtrends

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The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look like counter-trend bounces. Stocks are also short-term overbought. Strategically, the long-term downtrends and bear market are negative. Tactically, upside could be limited as resistance levels come into play and short-term conditions become overbought.

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Market Regime – Bear Market Bounce – Spreads Narrow – TLT Holds Breakout

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This market regime report weighs the evidence to determine the state of the stock market. Are we in a bull market or bear market? We start with the long-term trends for three major index ETFs (SPY,QQQ,RSP). Attention then turns to breadth indicators to measure the percentage of stocks in uptrends/downtrends and the percentage hitting new highs/lows. These indicators

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Market-ETF Report – Long-term Down + Short-term Overbought = Not Ideal

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The weight of the evidence is mixed, at best for the stock market. Our long-term trend and breadth indicators are bearish, but we did get short-term thrust signals towards the end of April. These signals remain in play so we will update the key levels to watch. Despite a record rebound the last few weeks, the March breakdowns remain and the short-term upswings look

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Bottoming Process – Capitulation, Short and Medium Term Thrusts, Regime Change

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The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets end with a bottoming process that often goes in stages. First, there is the capitulation phase, which suggests that selling pressure reached extremes and a bottom may be close. There was a capitulation setup in early April. Second, short-term thrust indicators mark a sharp recovery after an

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Trend Trio Signal for ITA – Few Uptrends – GLD Remains Frothy – Software Breaks Out

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Chartists can also use the 200-day SMA and the direction of the 200-day SMA to compare performance. ETFs trading above their rising 200-day SMAs are performing better than those trading below their falling 200-day SMAs. Overall, 23 of the 72 core ETFs are trading above their rising 200-day SMAs.

Trend Trio Signal for ITA – Few Uptrends – GLD Remains Frothy – Software Breaks Out Read More »

Market/ETF Video – Bear Market vs ZBT – SPY/QQQ Resistance – ETFs with Leading Breakouts

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Today’s video starts with the long-term trend and breadth indicators to define the broad market environment. We then turn to the Zweig Breadth Thrust and show the key SPY levels to watch going forward. Stocks are all over the place in April, but a handful of leaders emerged with uptrends, relative strength and breakouts. Elsewhere, the Bitcoin ETF extended on its breakout and GLD is still looking extended.

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Market-ETF Report – ZBT Update – Key SPY/QQQ Levels – XLK Resistance – Breakouts in Play

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Stocks are all over the place in April with a breakdown at the beginning and a Zweig Breadth Thrust towards the end. April price action seems to dominate, but it was the March breakdowns that reversed the long-term uptrends. The weight of the evidence also turned bearish in mid March as long-term breadth indicators also triggered. Currently, the long-term

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Thrust Signals using %Above SMA Breadth – Theory, Practice, Reality

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Besides the Zweig Breadth Thrust, chartists can identify bullish thrusts using short-term breadth indicators, such as the percentage of stocks above their 20 and 50 day SMAs (simple moving averages). Breadth thrust signals reflect a sharp turnaround in participation that can foreshadow an extended uptrend. Thrust signals start with a setup that shows very few stocks

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Zweig Breadth Thrust – NYSE Original – Modern Version AD%

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Developed by the late great Marty Zweig, the Zweig Breadth Thrust uses advance-decline data to identify material shifts in participation. This indicator sets up with when the advance-decline data becomes oversold and triggers when there is a sharp broadening in upside participation (advancing stocks). It is a time sensitive indicator that must trigger within a 10 day window.

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