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Weekend Video – 10yr Yield and Relative Performance for Small-caps, Dollar and Gold Strong, Broad Market Strength, Copper ETFs Perk Up (Premium)

ETF Rankings, Signals and Setups Table

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The bull market remains in play with the Composite Breadth Model bullish, yield spreads narrow and the Fed balance sheet surging to yet another new high. Participation started broadening a few weeks go with mid-caps and small-caps breaking out to new highs. This week we saw the 10-yr Treasury Yield surge off its rising 200-day and a rising yield is generally positive for small-caps and banks, on a relative performance basis. Elsewhere, the Dollar extended its uptrend and gold broke out with a big move. Many ETFs in our universe are in the middle of their trends and there are not very many setups right now. ETFs related to Small-caps, Industrials, Infrastructure, Materials, Banks and Housing broke out of big consolidations in September-October. ETFs related to Technology and Electric Vehicles hit new highs and continue to lead. The copper-related ETFs broke out this week after throwbacks to support. XLC and FDN could be setting up for a bounce, and IBUY may be putting in a bottom.

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Fed Balance Sheet Surges to Another New High
  • Yield Spreads Show No Signs of Stress
  • SPY and QQQ Lead with New Highs this Week
  • Mid-caps and Small-caps Remain with Strong Breakouts
  • Micro-cap ETF Challenges Channel Line
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield and Relative Performance (IWM, KRE, QQQJ)
  • TLT Reverses Upswing within Triangle
  • 10-yr Treasury Yield Surges off 200-day
  • Gold Breaks Summer Highs (SLV Breaks August High)
  • Dollar Maintains Uptrend
  • Oil Pulls Back within Bigger Uptrend

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups:

  • ETF Ranking and Trend Signal Table
  • Leading and Short-term Extended: SKYY, CIBR, IGV, SOXX, LIT, REMX, URA, KBRN
  • Leading and Short-term Extended: CARZ, IDRV, DRIV
  • Multi-month Correction, Sept Breakout, New Highs: KRE, KBE
  • Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout, New Highs: XLI, IFRA, XLB, XRT, XHB, MOO, DBA
  • Multi-month Correction, Oct Breakout: ITB, IYT, PBJ, XME
  • September New High, Pullback, October Breakout: XLV, REMX, PHO
  • Summer Correction, October Breakout: QCLN, TAN (plus ICLN)
  • Copper/Metals ETFs with Breakouts: COPX, CPER, DBB
  • Short-term Bull Flag/Pennant: XLF, XLU, KIE, IYR, REZ, IHI
  • Energy ETFs Stall/Pullback: XLE, XES, XOP, FCG, AMLP
  • Multi-month Correction, Shaky Breakout: ITA, JETS
  • Short-term Oversold: XLC, FDN, BETZ
  • Very Oversold and Stabilizing: BDRY
  • Bottoming?: IBUY
  • Biotechs Being Biotechs: IBB, XBI
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium)

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The surge in the 10-yr Treasury Yield is the talk of the town this week. Last week it was the breakout in the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). Is there a correlation here? Today’s commentary will look at the relationship between the 10-yr Treasury Yield and three relative performance charts

The 10-yr Treasury Yield, Small-caps, Banks and High Valuations, 10Yr Yield Surges off 200-day, Gold Breaks Out, Dollar Stays Strong (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium)

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The broad market environment remains bullish with more groups participating over the last few weeks. Stocks were hit with a bond-market bombshell on Wednesday as the 10-yr Treasury Yield surged 9%. This sudden move spooked high-beta stocks, emboldened the Dollar and led to a big breakout in gold. Tech-related ETFs were hit the hardest

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Overbought ETFs Get Hit, Long-term Breakouts Remain, Copper-Metals ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium)

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The bull market is clear and present with new highs in large-caps, large-cap techs, mid-caps and small-caps. Micro-caps are the only missing component, but IWC is very close. Participation continues to expand with breakouts in the Industrials

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Tech ETFs Getting Extended, Industrials Break Out, Copper ETFs Set Up (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium)

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The October run continued into November with small-caps breaking out and participation expanding. Some of the old leaders, however, are still leading with new highs in QQQ, XLK and some tech-related ETFs. The setups and breakouts from early-mid October are bearing fruit and ETFs with big runs the last four to five weeks are in the trend-monitoring phase.

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – QQQ Still Leading IWM, Banks Extends, Copper Related ETFs Hit Support (Premium) Read More »

Rails Drive Transports Higher, Copper ETF Throw Back to Breakout, Infrastructure ETF Challenges August Highs, Steel ETF Stalls (Premium)

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This commentary is an addition to Thursday’s ETF report. ETFs in today’s commentary formed long corrective patterns from spring to fall and made various breakout attempts here in October. The Transports ETF is the leader with a strong move above the August high. The copper and base metals

Rails Drive Transports Higher, Copper ETF Throw Back to Breakout, Infrastructure ETF Challenges August Highs, Steel ETF Stalls (Premium) Read More »

Small-caps and Healthcare Perk Up, TLT Gyrates as 10-yr Trends, Gold Challenges 200-day, Dollar Swings To and Fro (Premium)

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The Market Regime remains bullish with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs on Thursday. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) hit new highs Monday-Tuesday and then fell back pretty hard on Wednesday, before bouncing on Thursday. New highs are clearly more bullish than bearish. The noise level is

Small-caps and Healthcare Perk Up, TLT Gyrates as 10-yr Trends, Gold Challenges 200-day, Dollar Swings To and Fro (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech-related ETF Get Extended, BETZ, BDRY and KRBN Form Short-term Bullish Setups (Premium)

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Earnings season is in full swing and this is leading to a little more volatility. Volatility mostly affects individual stocks, but it can also affect market cap weighted ETFs when the big components make big moves. Overall, the market regime remains bullish with fresh new highs in SPY, RSP and MDY. There are not

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Tech-related ETF Get Extended, BETZ, BDRY and KRBN Form Short-term Bullish Setups (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Old Economy ETF Come to Life, Tech Remains Strong, Biotechs Get Interesting (Premium)

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Stocks continued their October run with the S&P 500 SPDR, S&P 500 EW ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR hitting new highs. Participation is clearly broadening and this is reflected in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above selective moving averages. There were also 17 new uptrend signals via the StochClose indicator.

Weekend Video – Participation Broadens, Old Economy ETF Come to Life, Tech Remains Strong, Biotechs Get Interesting (Premium) Read More »

Participation Broadens, Seasonal Patterns are Bullish, TLT Turns Back at Support Break, Oil Hits Another New High (Premium)

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The Market Regime remains bullish and participation broadened here in October. The Finance SPDR and Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit new highs in October, and the Technology SPDR ended its correction with a breakout. Broadening participation comes from the Industrials SPDR and

Participation Broadens, Seasonal Patterns are Bullish, TLT Turns Back at Support Break, Oil Hits Another New High (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals, Energy and Banks Lead, Industrials and Materials Perk Up, Uptrend Signals in Clean Energy (Premium)

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SPY and QQQ ended their corrections with breakouts last week and this is bullish for the broader market. Small-caps (IJR) are also making a breakout bid as strength within the market broadens. In particular, we are seeing leadership from ETFs associated with industrial

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Metals, Energy and Banks Lead, Industrials and Materials Perk Up, Uptrend Signals in Clean Energy (Premium) Read More »

Weekend Video – Follow Through with Strong Breadth, Tech ETFs Surge, Industrial Metals Lead (Premium)

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Stocks surged again on Thursday, but this week’s surge was different than the Thursday’s surge the prior week. SPY and QQQ followed through after the open and S&P 500 breadth showed broad participation. Small-caps also bounced, but the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR

Weekend Video – Follow Through with Strong Breadth, Tech ETFs Surge, Industrial Metals Lead (Premium) Read More »

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Industrial Metals ETF Lead, Tech-related ETF Follow Through, Clean Energy Perks Up (Premium)

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Even though breadth during the recent pops was uninspiring, the bulls are not backing down and we are in a bull market environment, as per the Market Regime page. There are really only two trading/investing options in a bull market: long or cash. Short positions are not realistic options. There are

ETF Trends, Patterns and Setups – Industrial Metals ETF Lead, Tech-related ETF Follow Through, Clean Energy Perks Up (Premium) Read More »

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