Weekend Video – Large/Small Divide, Successful Breakouts vs Failed Breakouts (Premium)

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Large-caps are doing it again with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF hitting new highs. The small and micro-cap ETFs bounced, but this bounce may be too late as they already triggered downtrend signals. Overall, there are more pockets of strength than weakness in the broader market. However, these weak pockets translate into failed breakouts and fewer stocks/ETFs keeping pace with the S&P 500. This makes the overall trading/investing environment challenging. Elsewhere, bonds remain on my radar as a bull flag forms in TLT. Breakouts in several ETFs are holding (XLI, XLF, XLB, ITB, DBA) and some tech related ETFs got oversold bounces. For every successful breakout, there is a failed breakout and we will cover a few of those as well.

Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)

Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.

Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.  

Broad Market Notes

  • Still a Large-cap World
  • SPY Channels to another New High (QQQ too)
  • S&P 500 EW ETF Holds Breakout
  • IWM and MDY Hit Momentum Resistance Zones
  • Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
  • Yield Spreads Narrow as Oil Bounces
  • Feb Balance Sheet Contracts a Fraction
  • TLT Forms Bull Flag
  • Gold Remains in Downtrend, but Breaks Out of Small Flag
  • Dollar challenges March High
  • Oil Gets Oversold Bounce within Correction

ETF Highlights

  • ETF Ranking, Trend Signals and Oversold Setups Table
  • Steady Uptrends: SPY, XLC, XLRE, PHO, IYZ
  • Uptrends with More Vol: QQQ, XLK, IHI
  • XLK, XLV and XLC Lead the Big Sectors (but extended)
  • XLF, XLI and XLB Bounce Off Breakout Zones (IFRA too)
  • XLE is the Weakest Sector by Far
  • Software ETF is Very Extended
  • SOXX, FDN and CIBR Get Big Oversold Bounces
  • The Reversal within the Pattern Setup (FINX, QQQJ)
  • Housing ETFs Hold Breakouts and Extend
  • Regional Bank ETF is Bearish, but Bank SPDR is Bullish
  • Residential REIT ETF Forms Short-term Bullish Pattern
  • Biotech ETF Breaks out of Wedge, but Remains Choppy
  • DBA Holds Channel Breakout
  • Energy and Copper Related ETFs are in Downtrends
  • Steel, Metal and Ag ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts
  • CUT Breaks Out, but WOOD Does Not
  • Electric Vehicle ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts
Thanks for tuning in and have a great weekend!

-Arthur Hill, CMT
Choose a Strategy, Develop a Plan and Follow a Process

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