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Large-caps remain in bull mode with SPY, QQQ and the S&P 500 EW ETF leading. Small-caps and micro-caps tell another story with downtrend signals based on StochClose. We have yet to see a flight to safety that could trigger a correction in SPY, but I am watching TLT as it forms a bull flag and UUP as it challenges its March high. In the ETF group, XLI, IFRA, XLB, XLF and ITB are testing their breakouts with throwbacks this week. There are a few tech-related ETFs with oversold setups (SMH, SOXX, CIBR, FDN). On the negative side, there were several failed breakouts as SLX, XME, COPX, MOO and CARZ fell below their breakout zones.
Seasonal Patterns: Monthly and Best/Worst 6 Months (article/video)
Trading Corrections: Identifying and trading the falling wedge.
Exit Strategies: Indicators, riding the trend, using the ATR Trailing Stop.
Broad Market Notes
- It’s Still a Large-cap World
- SPY Channels Higher
- QQQ Remains Near 52-week High
- Small and Micro Caps are in Downtrends
- Mid-caps are Caught in the Middle
- Composite Breadth Model Remains Bullish
- Yield Spreads Widen from Low Levels
- Feb Balance Sheet Hits Yet another New High
- TLT Forms Bull Flag
- Seasonal Patterns for Stocks and Bonds
- Gold Remains in Downtrend, but Flies a Small Flag
- Dollar challenges March High
- Oil Becomes Oversold in Support Zone
ETF Highlights
- ETF Ranking, Trend Signals and Oversold Setups Table
- Broad Strength within Sector SPDRs
- 10 ETFs with Momo Comp Oversold
- XLK, XLV and XLC Lead the Big Sectors
- Utes, Staples and REITs also Leading
- XLF, XLI, IFRA and XLB Test Breakout Zones (trigger stops)
- SOXX, SMH and FIVG Pullback to 50-day SMAs
- FDN Gets StochRSI Pop
- FINX Holds Breakout and ATR Trailing Stop
- CIBR Forms Bull Flag
- Adjusted Stop Strategy for KRE and KBE
- REZ Forms Bullish Wedge
- StochClose Bearish for Energy Related ETFs
- Copper ETFs Fail and Trigger Bearish
- Steel ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts (MOO too)
- RSI versus the Momentum Composite (IYZ)
- EV ETFs Fail to Hold Breakouts (become oversold)