An Indicator to Keep you on the Right Side of the Trend – QQQ Triggers a New Signal (Free)

The S&P 500 fell 5.75% this week and this as the biggest weekly decline since March 2020 (covid crash). It was the second biggest weekly decline since October 2020 (5.6%). Declines like this are normally associated with a selling climax that could give way to a short-term oversold bounce. Longer-term, however,

Stocks continued their recent ways with small-caps (IWM) and high-beta tech stocks (QQQJ) leading the way lower in January. IWM is down around 8% year-to-date and QQQJ is down around 11%. The year is starting just how it ended: growth and high beta remain out

Last Tuesday, I wrote about the transition phase currently underway in the markets. Actually, there are a number of transitions underway and perhaps they are linked. While I do not like to dive deep into the fundamentals, the macro backdrop for 2022 is looking very different from 2020 to 2021.

The weight of the evidence is bullish for the broader market, but there are some sizable pockets of weakness, as seen when looking at the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA for the various indexes. Yield spreads show no signs of stress and the Fed Balance sheet is

The transition process is difficult and the markets are undergoing a transition from a covid-driven economy to a normal economy. A covid economy implies Fed easing, fiscal stimulus and falling Treasury yields. A normal economy means no more balance sheet expansion, no more fiscal stimulus and a normalization of Treasury yields.

The stock market is as mixed as it ever with defensive issues leading, banks and energy breaking out, materials and infrastructure holding up and tech stocks taking it on the chin. Healthcare ETFs were also hit quite hard this week. Six of the magnificent seven (stocks) are under pressure and this is weighing on cap-weighed SPY and QQQ.

Stocks were rattled on Wednesday with Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary leading the way lower. As noted on Tuesday, the magnificent seven dominate these three sectors. Selling pressure was not limited to tech as REITs, Biotechs, Airlines and

QQQ and the Technology SPDR are holding up and near new highs, but there are still some serious pockets of underperformance within the tech sector and even within the top stocks. Today’s commentary will look at QQQ breadth, the big seven and QQQ’s little brother, QQQJ. We will analyze charts

Stocks started the new year with gains, but there were still some pockets of weakness. The Nasdaq 100 Next Gen ETF (QQQJ) fell as money shied away from high beta tech, weakness in transports weighed on the Industrials SPDR and the Materials SPDR fell over 1%. The Russell 2000 ETF gained

The Composite Breadth Model flipped back to bullish with the bounce in stocks over the last five days. Even so, the market remains quite divided right now. Large-caps are still leading, small-caps are still lagging and mid-caps remain caught in the middle. The divide is visible within some sectors as well.

The stock market is about as divided as can be. It is clear that this is no longer a bull market that lifts all boats. Should we get a bear market, it may not be one that sinks most boats. The Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, but could go either way as the percentage of S&P 1500 stocks above the 200-day SMA gyrates around

This commentary will cover bonds, gold, silver and the Dollar. Oil was covered in the ETF Report on Wednesday. TLT and the 10-yr Yield have big continuation patterns working, but the swings within these patterns are going the other way. Gold is going for a breakout as silver surges off support. The Dollar became overbought after a big advance and stalled the last few weeks.

Even though the Composite Breadth Model is net bearish, the stock market seems to be more split than anything. This means we could see some sort of rotation instead of a broad bear market. In fact, we are already seeing some signs in December and there are splits within sectors. In Consumer Discretionary

Stocks fell sharply the last three days with QQQ and SPY leading the way as they fell 4.12% and 3.32%, respectively. Small-caps held up better as IWM fell just 1.4%. Nevertheless, IWM is trading near its summer lows and the weakest of the three over the past month and since March.

Risk aversion is spreading in the stock market. High-beta ETFs bore the brunt of selling pressure over the last several weeks and QQQ is starting to show some signs of buckling. On the flipside, money is moving into defensive groups with Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and REITs hitting new highs.

The Fed has come and gone without much of a surprise, and the markets are saying good riddance. The market appears to be relieved that the statement is out of the way and the news flow will hopefully lessen. Volatility picked up significantly with the plunge on Back Friday